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Cointegration and causality analysis of dynamic linkage between stock market and equity mutual funds in Australia

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  • Sasipa Pojanavatee

Abstract

The existing literature finds conflicting results on the magnitude of price linkages between equity mutual funds and the stock market. The study contends that in an optimal lagged model, the expectations of future prices using knowledge of past price behaviour in a particular equity mutual fund category will improve forecasts of prices of other equity mutual fund categories and the stock market index. The evidence shows that the long-run pricing of equity mutual funds is cointegrated with the stock market index. In the short run, the results indicate that some equity mutual fund categories possess both long-run and short-run exogeneity with the stock market. Therefore, the short-run dynamic indicates short-run Granger causal links running between different equity mutual fund categories.

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  • Sasipa Pojanavatee, 2014. "Cointegration and causality analysis of dynamic linkage between stock market and equity mutual funds in Australia," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 1-17, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:oaefxx:doi:10.1080/23322039.2014.918855
    DOI: 10.1080/23322039.2014.918855
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    1. MacKinnon, James G & Haug, Alfred A & Michelis, Leo, 1999. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 563-577, Sept.-Oct.
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    3. Chu, Patrick Kuok-Kun, 2011. "Relationship between macroeconomic variables and net asset values (NAV) of equity funds: Cointegration evidence and vector error correction model of the Hong Kong Mandatory Provident Funds (MPFs)," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 792-810.
    4. Donald W. K. Andrews, 2003. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point: A Corrigendum," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 395-397, January.
    5. Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211.
    6. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
    7. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    8. Juan Carlos Matallin & Luisa Nieto, 2002. "Mutual funds as an alternative to direct stock investment: A cointegration approach," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(10), pages 743-750.
    9. repec:bla:ecorec:v:69:y:1993:i:207:p:405-10 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Chu, Patrick Kuok Kun, 2010. "The price linkages between the equity fund price levels and the stock markets: Evidences from cointegration approach and causality analysis of Hong Kong Mandatory Provident Fund (MPF)," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 281-288, September.
    11. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
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    1. Sanjiwani Jayant KUMAR & Hitesh PUNJABI & Ashish MAHADIK, 2018. "Study of Relationship between Large-Cap Equity Funds Returns in India and Benchmark Returns," Economics and Applied Informatics, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 3, pages 47-56.

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