IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/jbemgt/v12y2011i4p589-602.html

Frequency domain analysis of consumer confidence, industrial production and retail sales for selected european countries

Author

Listed:
  • Aslı Yüksel Mermod
  • Gitana Dudzevičiūtė

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between consumer confidence, economic growth and retail sales for selected countries employing frequency domain analysis. Our methodology includes the causality test developed by Breitung and Candelon (2006) which improves the methodology of Geweke (1982) and Hosoya (1991). We focus on the causality tests across frequency bands as well as the usual Granger causality tests. Especially for the emerging countries the causality goes from the economic growth to consumer confidence but not vice versa. This argument basically supports the findings of Güneş and Uzun (2010) as well as Balkytė and Tvaronavičienė (2010), which claim that in emerging countries consumers are not able to trigger the economic growth with their confidence due to their subsistence level of income. Besides, causality from consumer confidence to retail sales, which is a proxy for the consumer expenditures, is detected. As in Basdas and Çelik (2010), we also obtain significant differences whenever the frequency domain causality tests are employed instead of usual Granger causality tests in time domain.

Suggested Citation

  • Aslı Yüksel Mermod & Gitana Dudzevičiūtė, 2011. "Frequency domain analysis of consumer confidence, industrial production and retail sales for selected european countries," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 589-602, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jbemgt:v:12:y:2011:i:4:p:589-602
    DOI: 10.3846/16111699.2011.599406
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.3846/16111699.2011.599406
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.3846/16111699.2011.599406?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brigitte Desroches & Marc-André Gosselin, 2002. "The Usefulness of Consumer Confidence Indexes in the United States," Staff Working Papers 02-22, Bank of Canada.
    2. Maria Ward Otoo, 1999. "Consumer sentiment and the stock market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-60, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Ivan Roberts & John Simon, 2001. "What do Sentiment Surveys Measure?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2001-09, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    4. Nuri Yildirim & Huseyin Tastan, 2012. "Capital Flows and Economic Growth across Spectral requencies: Evidence from Turkey," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 59(4), pages 441-462, September.
    5. Nuri Yildirim & Huseyin Tastan, 2012. "Capital Flows and Economic Growth across Spectral requencies: Evidence from Turkey," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 59(4), pages 441-462, September.
    6. Orlando Gomes, 2010. "Consumer confidence, endogenous growth and endogenous cycles," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 37(4), pages 377-404, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2003. "What is this thing called confidence? A comparative analysis of consumer confidence indices in eight major countries," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 484, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Easaw, Joshy Z. & Ghoshray, Atanu, 2007. "Confidence or competence: Do presidencies matter for households' subjective preferences?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 1025-1037, December.
    3. Nikola Gradojević & Eldin Dobardžić, 2013. "Causality between Regional Stock Markets: A Frequency Domain Approach," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 60(5), pages 633-647, September.
    4. International Monetary Fund, 2016. "Turkey: Selected Issue," IMF Staff Country Reports 2016/105, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Gelper, S. & Lemmens, A. & Croux, C., 2007. "Consumer sentiment and consumer spending : Decomposing the granger causal relationship in the time domain," Other publications TiSEM 55ac7230-2985-41f1-a42c-7, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    6. Dudek, Sławomir, 2008. "Consumer Survey Data and short-term forecasting of households consumption expenditures in Poland," MPRA Paper 19818, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Yusuf Ekrem Akbas & Mehmet Senturk & Canan Sancar, 2013. "Testing for Causality between the Foreign Direct Investment, Current Account Deficit, GDP and Total Credit: Evidence from G7," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 60(6), pages 791-812, December.
    8. Yeung, Matthew C.H. & Ramasamy, Bala & Chen, Junsong & Paliwoda, Stan, 2013. "Customer satisfaction and consumer expenditure in selected European countries," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 406-416.
    9. Lenka Mynaříková & Vít Pošta, 2023. "The Effect of Consumer Confidence and Subjective Well-being on Consumers’ Spending Behavior," Journal of Happiness Studies, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 429-453, February.
    10. Tracey West & Andrew Worthington, 2014. "Macroeconomic Conditions and Australian Financial Risk Attitudes, 2001–2010," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 263-277, June.
    11. Gerhard Illing & Ulrich Klüh, 2005. "Vermögenspreise und Konsum: Neue Erkenntnisse, amerikanische Erfahrungen und europäische Herausforderungen," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 6(1), pages 1-22, February.
    12. Hollanders, David & Vliegenthart, Rens, 2011. "The influence of negative newspaper coverage on consumer confidence: The Dutch case," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 367-373, June.
    13. Gric, Zuzana & Bajzík, Josef & Badura, Ondřej, 2023. "Does sentiment affect stock returns? A meta-analysis across survey-based measures," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    14. Cooper, Michael J. & Gubellini, Stefano, 2011. "The critical role of conditioning information in determining if value is really riskier than growth," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 289-305, March.
    15. Chen, Shiu-Sheng, 2011. "Lack of consumer confidence and stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 225-236, March.
    16. Neszveda, Gábor & Csillag, Balázs, 2020. "A gazdasági várakozások hatása a tőzsdei momentumstratégiára [The impact of economic expectations on the momentum trading strategy]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 1093-1111.
    17. Luke Hartigan & Tom Rosewall, 2025. "Nowcasting Quarterly GDP Growth During the COVID‐19 Crisis Using a Monthly Activity Indicator," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 101(335), pages 456-484, December.
    18. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Michael Kühl, 2012. "The cross-country importance of global sentiments—evidence for smaller EU countries," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 245-264, September.
    19. Jansen, W. Jos & Stokman, Ad C.J., 2004. "Foreign direct investment and international business cycle comovement," Working Paper Series 401, European Central Bank.
    20. Alžbeta Suhányiová & Ladislav Suhányi & Michaela Kočišová, 2023. "Business Confidence in the Sustainable Manufacturing Sector in the Context of Production, Production Prices, and Interest Rates," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-20, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:jbemgt:v:12:y:2011:i:4:p:589-602. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/TBEM20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.