Using extreme value theory to estimate the likelihood of banking sector failure
The growing interest in management of credit risk and estimation of default probabilities has given rise to a range of more or less elaborate credit risk models. While these models work well for non-financial firms they are usually not very successful in capturing the financial strength of banks. As an answer to this, Hall and Miles suggest a simple approach of estimating bank failure probabilities based solely on their stock prices. This paper suggests an extension to the Hall and Miles model using extreme value theory and applies the extended model to the Swedish banking sector around the banking crisis of the early 1990s. The extended model captures very well the increased likelihood of a systemic banking sector failure around the peak of the crisis and it produces default probabilities that are more stable, more realistic and more consistent with Moody's and Fitch rating implied default rates than probabilities from the original Hall and Miles model.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 12 (2006)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/REJF20|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/REJF20|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Berger, Allen N & Davies, Sally M & Flannery, Mark J, 2000.
"Comparing Market and Supervisory Assessments of Bank Performance: Who Knows What When?,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(3), pages 641-667, August.
- Allen N. Berger & Sally M. Davies & Mark J. Flannery, 2000. "Comparing market and supervisory assessments of bank performance: who knows what when?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 641-670.
- Allen N. Berger & Sally M. Davies & Mark J. Flannery, 1998. "Comparing market and supervisory assessments of bank performance: who knows what when?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-32, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
- Merton, Robert C., 1973. "On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates," Working papers 684-73., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:12:y:2006:i:4:p:303-312. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.