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Comparison of Two Methods of Identifying Input-Output Coefficients for Exogenous Estimation

  • Ali Reza Jalili
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    Input-output (IO) updating research indicates substantial improvements in the forecasts when some of the coefficients have been exogenously estimated and included in the updating process. Several methods for identifying the appropriate subsets have been proposed. The present paper attempts to assess the relative performances of two such approaches: 'the largest coefficients' and 'the most important parameters' criteria. Utilizing these criteria, a set of coefficients from the 1966 IO table of the former Soviet Union were selected and exogenously determined. The remaining coefficients were updated to 1972 by means of naive, RAS, and Lagrangian techniques. Comparison of the results with the 1972 benchmark table provided the desired answers.

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    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/095353100111317
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    Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Economic Systems Research.

    Volume (Year): 12 (2000)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 113-129

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    Handle: RePEc:taf:ecsysr:v:12:y:2000:i:1:p:113-129
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    1. Mun-Heng Toh, 1998. "The RAS Approach in Updating Input-Output Matrices: An Instrumental Variable Interpretation and Analysis of Structural Change," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 63-78.
    2. Bullard, Clark W & Sebald, Anthony V, 1988. "Monte Carlo Sensitivity Analysis of Input-Output Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(4), pages 708-12, November.
    3. West, G R, 1982. "Sensitivity and Key Sector Analysis in Input-Output Models," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(39), pages 365-78, December.
    4. Allen, R I G, 1974. "Some Experiments with the RAS Method of Updating Input-Output Coefficients," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 36(3), pages 215-28, August.
    5. F J Harrigan & J W McGilvray & I H McNicoll, 1980. "Simulating the structure of a regional economy," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 12(8), pages 927-936, August.
    6. R C Jensen & G R West, 1980. "The effect of relative coefficient size on input - output multipliers," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 12(6), pages 659-670, June.
    7. Parikh, Ashok, 1979. "Forecasts of Input-Output Matrices Using the R.A.S. Method," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 61(3), pages 477-81, August.
    8. Bullard, Clark W, III & Sebald, Anthony V, 1977. "Effects of Parametric Uncertainty and Technological Change on Input-Output Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 59(1), pages 75-81, February.
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