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Does defence expenditure deter economic growth in Turkey? A cointegration analysis

  • Erdal Karagol
  • Serap Palaz

This paper investigates a series of unit root, cointegration and causality tests to ascertain the direction of causality between the growth of GNP and defence expenditure in Turkey for the years 1955-2000. The main conclusion is that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between GNP and defence expenditures. Furthermore, the short run causality test indicates that there is a unidirectional causality between variables, from defence expenditure to economic growth. In order to see the effect of a shock, we employed impulse response analyses. The results show that GNP decreased during the period then output finally recovered from the initial shock to defence expenditures.

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File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690320001608908
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Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Defence and Peace Economics.

Volume (Year): 15 (2004)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 289-298

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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:15:y:2004:i:3:p:289-298
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  1. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  2. Paul Dunne & Eftychia Nikolaidou & Dimitrios Vougas, 2001. "Defence spending and economic growth: A causal analysis for Greece and Turkey," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 5-26.
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