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Does inflation cause gold market price changes? evidence on the G7 countries from the tests of nonparametric quantile causality in mean and variance

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  • Mehmet Balcilar
  • Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir
  • Muhammad Shahbaz
  • Serkan Gunes

Abstract

This article utilizes the newly proposed nonparametric causality-in-quantiles test to examine the predictability of mean and variance of changes in gold prices based on inflation for G7 countries. The causality-in-quantiles approach permits us to test for not only causality in mean but also causality in variance. We start our investigation by utilizing tests for nonlinearity. These tests identify nonlinearity, showing that the linear Granger causality tests are subject to misspecification error. Unlike tests of misspecified linear models, our nonparametric causality-in-quantiles tests find causality in mean and variance from inflation to gold market price changes between the 0.20 quantile and the 0.70 quantile, implying that very low- and high-price changes in gold markets are not related to inflation. These changes should be related to other sources, such as financial shocks and exchange market shocks. We find support that gold serves as a hedge against inflation, but only in the mid-quantile ranges, i.e. quantiles from 0.20 to 0.70. Our results show that gold does not serve as a hedge against inflation during periods when gold market price changes are very low or very high, which are respectively quiet and highly volatile periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Mehmet Balcilar & Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir & Muhammad Shahbaz & Serkan Gunes, 2018. "Does inflation cause gold market price changes? evidence on the G7 countries from the tests of nonparametric quantile causality in mean and variance," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(17), pages 1891-1909, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:50:y:2018:i:17:p:1891-1909
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2017.1380290
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    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Chen & Raza, Syed Ali & Adebayo, Tomiwa Sunday & Yi, Sun & Shah, Muhammad Ibrahim, 2023. "The roles of hydro, nuclear and biomass energy towards carbon neutrality target in China: A policy-based analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(PA).
    2. Mehmet Balcilar & Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir & Huseyin Ozdemir, 2021. "Dynamic return and volatility spillovers among S&P 500, crude oil, and gold," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 153-170, January.
    3. Balcilar, Mehmet & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin & Ozdemir, Huseyin & Wohar, Mark E., 2020. "Fed’s unconventional monetary policy and risk spillover in the US financial markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 42-52.
    4. Wang, Kuan-Min & Lee, Yuan-Ming, 2022. "Is gold a safe haven for exchange rate risks? An empirical study of major currency countries," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    5. Remzi Gök & Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2022. "Analysis of the Frequency-Based Relationship between Inflation Expectations and Gold Returns in Turkey," Istanbul Business Research, Istanbul University Business School, vol. 51(2), pages 535-561, November.
    6. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Sohail, Asiya & Al-Yahyaee, Khamis Hamed, 2019. "Does gold act as a hedge against different nuances of inflation? Evidence from Quantile-on-Quantile and causality-in- quantiles approaches," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 602-615.
    7. Thabang NDLOVU & Nozibusiso Mavuso NDLOVU, 2024. "The Dynamic Linkages among Gold Prices, Stock Prices, the Exchange Rate and Interest Rate in South Africa," Journal of Economics and Financial Analysis, Tripal Publishing House, vol. 8(1), pages 35-56.

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    JEL classification:

    • A1 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics

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