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Kalman filter approach to estimate the demand for international reserves

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  • Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee
  • Ford Brown

Abstract

A few studies have provided empirical support for the fact that the demand for international reserves experienced structural instability in 1973 and 1979 due to a change in exchange rate system and oil price shocks. Thus, under the current managed float due to exchange rate and oil price fluctuations, coefficient estimates could be time dependent. After showing that indeed, estimated coefficients are time dependent, the Kalman filter estimation method is employed and the reserve demand function for 19 industrial countries estimated. The Kalman filter approach incorporates the time-varying properties of coefficients estimates.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Ford Brown, 2004. "Kalman filter approach to estimate the demand for international reserves," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(15), pages 1655-1668.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:36:y:2004:i:15:p:1655-1668
    DOI: 10.1080/0003684042000218543
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Saidi, Nasser, 1981. "The square-root law, uncertainty and international reserves under alternative regimes : Canadian experience, 1950-1976," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 271-290.
    2. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Malixi, Margaret, 1987. "Effects of exchange rate flexibility on the demand for international reserves," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 89-93.
    3. Andrew D. Crockett, 1978. "Control over International Reserves (Surveillance des réserves internationales) (El control de las reservas internacionales)," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 25(1), pages 1-24, March.
    4. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, 1988. "Oil price shocks and stability of the demand for international reserves," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 633-641.
    5. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, 1986. "Determinants of international trade flows : The Case of Developing Countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 107-123.
    6. Frenkel, Jacob A., 1980. "International reserves under pegged exchange rates and managed float : Corrections and extensions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 295-302, April.
    7. M. Bahmani-Oskooee & F. Brown, 2002. "Demand for international reserves: a review article," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(10), pages 1209-1226.
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    Cited by:

    1. Taufeeque Ahmad Siddiqui & Haseen Ahmed & Mohammad Naushad & Uzma Khan, 2023. "The Relationship between Oil Prices and Exchange Rate: A Systematic Literature Review," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(3), pages 566-578, May.
    2. M, Ramachandran & Maheswari, D., 2022. "Asymmetry in forex market intervention: Does it reflect fear of reserve inadequacy?," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).
    3. Diana Giurghita & Dirk Husmeier, 2018. "Statistical modelling of cell movement," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 72(3), pages 265-280, August.
    4. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Ming-Chih Lee & Wan-Hsiu Cheng, 2007. "Correlated jumps in crude oil and gasoline during the Gulf War," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(7), pages 903-913.
    6. Abbas Valadkhani, 2015. "Asymmetric size-dependent effects of the output gap on inflation: US evidence from the last half a century," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(33), pages 3525-3539, July.
    7. Shijaku, Gerti, 2012. "Optimal level of reserve holding: an empirical investigation in the case of Albania," MPRA Paper 79091, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Lai, Jennifer /J.T., 2008. "Capital flow to China and the issue of hot money: an empirical investigation," MPRA Paper 32539, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Sep 2009.
    9. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2013. "On the Stratonovich – Kalman - Bucy filtering algorithm application for accurate characterization of financial time series with use of state-space model by central banks," MPRA Paper 50235, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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