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Asymmetric index stock returns: evidence from the G-7

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  • Gregory Koutmos

Abstract

There is able empirical evidence that the conditional volatility of stock returns is asymmetric in the sense that negative innovations increase volatility more than positive innovations of an equal magnitude. Less attention, however, has been paid to possible asymmetries in the conditional mean. This paper uses time-varying asymmetric distributions to model index stock returns of the Group of Seven (G-7) industrialized nations. In agreement with the extant literature, all index stock returns exhibit asymmetric volatility. More importantly however, the conditional mean is also an asymmetric function of past innovations, in most cases. Interestingly, the asymmetry in the conditional mean case is the reverse of that observed in the conditional variance, that is, positive innovations have a greater impact than negative innovations of an equal sign. Equivalently, positive innovations (up markets) are more persistent than negative innovations (down markets). Overall, the evidence suggests that taking into account both size as well as the sign of past innovations can improve forecasts of the conditional first and second moments of stock returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Gregory Koutmos, 1999. "Asymmetric index stock returns: evidence from the G-7," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(12), pages 817-820.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:6:y:1999:i:12:p:817-820
    DOI: 10.1080/135048599352240
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. George J. Stigler & James K. Kindahl, 1970. "The Behavior of Industrial Prices," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number stig70-1.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jan G. De Gooijer & Kurt Brännäs, 2004. "Asymmetries in conditional mean and variance: modelling stock returns by asMA-asQGARCH," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(3), pages 155-171.
    2. Kurt Brannas & Albina Soultanaeva, 2011. "Influence of news from Moscow and New York on returns and risks of Baltic States’ stock markets," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 11(1), pages 109-124, July.
    3. Camilleri, Silvio John, 2006. "An Analysis of Stock Index Distributions of Selected Emerging Markets," MPRA Paper 62490, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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