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Demand stochastics, supply adaptation, and the distribution of film earnings

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  • W. D. Walls

Abstract

A market is analysed in which demand is a stochastic process and supply is contingent on the expected level of demand - a model that provides a realistic depiction of the motion picture market where consumer demand is a process of discovery and information sharing, and the supply of theatre screens expands through contingent contracts to accommodate demand. This model predicts that motion picture earnings will deviate from a power law and instead be distributed according to an exponential of a power law due to finite-size effects in demand. Empirical analysis on a large sample of motion pictures finds significant deviation from the power law distribution and a remarkably good fit for the stretched exponential distribution.

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  • W. D. Walls, 2005. "Demand stochastics, supply adaptation, and the distribution of film earnings," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(10), pages 619-623.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:12:y:2005:i:10:p:619-623
    DOI: 10.1080/13504850500166246
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. De Vany, Arthur & Walls, W David, 1996. "Bose-Einstein Dynamics and Adaptive Contracting in the Motion Picture Industry," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(439), pages 1493-1514, November.
    2. Vining, Daniel R, Jr, 1976. "Autocorrelated Growth Rates and the Pareto Law: A Further Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(2), pages 369-380, April.
    3. Arthur De Vany & W. David Walls, 2002. "Does Hollywood Make Too Many R-Rated Movies? Risk, Stochastic Dominance, and the Illusion of Expectation," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(3), pages 425-452, July.
    4. Ijiri, Yuji & Simon, Herbert A, 1971. "Effects of Mergers and Acquisitions on Business Firm Concentration," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(2), pages 314-322, March-Apr.
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    Cited by:

    1. Vladimir Hlasny, 2021. "Parametric representation of the top of income distributions: Options, historical evidence, and model selection," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 1217-1256, September.
    2. W. Walls, 2010. "Superstars and heavy tails in recorded entertainment: empirical analysis of the market for DVDs," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 34(4), pages 261-279, November.
    3. Moez Hababou & Nawel Amrouche & Kamel Jedidi, 2016. "Measuring Economic Efficiency in the Motion Picture Industry: a Data Envelopment Analysis Approach," Customer Needs and Solutions, Springer;Institute for Sustainable Innovation and Growth (iSIG), vol. 3(3), pages 144-158, December.
    4. Jordi McKenzie, 2009. "Revealed word-of-mouth demand and adaptive supply: survival of motion pictures at the Australian box office," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 33(4), pages 279-299, November.
    5. Allègre Hadida, 2010. "Commercial success and artistic recognition of motion picture projects," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 34(1), pages 45-80, February.
    6. Natalia Gmerek, 2015. "The determinants of Polish movies’ box office performance in Poland," Journal of Marketing and Consumer Behaviour in Emerging Markets, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 1(1), pages 15-35.

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