Demand stochastics, supply adaptation, and the distribution of film earnings
A market is analysed in which demand is a stochastic process and supply is contingent on the expected level of demand - a model that provides a realistic depiction of the motion picture market where consumer demand is a process of discovery and information sharing, and the supply of theatre screens expands through contingent contracts to accommodate demand. This model predicts that motion picture earnings will deviate from a power law and instead be distributed according to an exponential of a power law due to finite-size effects in demand. Empirical analysis on a large sample of motion pictures finds significant deviation from the power law distribution and a remarkably good fit for the stretched exponential distribution.
Volume (Year): 12 (2005)
Issue (Month): 10 ()
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- Arthur De Vany & W. David Walls, 2002.
"Does Hollywood Make Too Many R-Rated Movies? Risk, Stochastic Dominance, and the Illusion of Expectation,"
The Journal of Business,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(3), pages 425-452, July.
- De Vany, A. & Walls, W.D., 2000. "Does Hollywood make too many R-Rated Movies? Risk, Stochastic Dominance, and the Illusion of Expectation," Papers 99-00-24, California Irvine - School of Social Sciences.
- Ijiri, Yuji & Simon, Herbert A, 1971. "Effects of Mergers and Acquisitions on Business Firm Concentration," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(2), pages 314-22, March-Apr.
- De Vany, Arthur & Walls, W David, 1996. "Bose-Einstein Dynamics and Adaptive Contracting in the Motion Picture Industry," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(439), pages 1493-1514, November.
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