Analysis of the Pollution and Carbon Reduction Effects of the Coordinated Development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

Ecological coordination is a key objectives of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) coordinated development strategy. As the construction of a Beautiful China enters a critical stage of synergistic governance for pollution reduction and carbon mitigation, scientifically evaluating the environmental benefits of the BTH coordinated development holds significant theoretical and practical importance. Based on New Economic Geography, Collaborative Governance Theory, and Innovation-Driven Theory, this paper constructs an analytical framework for regional coordination driving ecological governance. Using the 2014 elevation of BTH coordinated development to a national strategy as a quasi-natural experiment and provincial panel data, this study employs the Synthetic Control Method to assess its pollution and carbon reduction effects. Furthermore, Grey Relational Analysis identifies the core mechanisms. Results show the policy yields significant, sustained, and robust pollution and carbon reduction effects, confirming its well-timed implementation. The mechanisms operate through five dimensions: spatial restructuring and resource optimization, industrial upgrading and low-carbon transition, technological innovation and green spillovers, regional environmental collaboration, and transportation-energy integration. This study provides empirical evidence and policy insights for deepening regional coordinated governance and advancing synergistic pollution and carbon mitigation. JEL classification numbers: R11, Q53, Q58.