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Assessing Adaptability of Cyclic and Non-Cyclic Approach to Conjunctive use of Groundwater and Surface water for Sustainable Management Plans under Climate Change

Author

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  • Abbas Afshar

    (Iran University of Science and Technology)

  • Mina Khosravi

    (Iran University of Science and Technology)

  • Amir Molajou

    (Iran University of Science and Technology)

Abstract

Groundwater overdraft in many regions throughout the world has been threatening the sustainability of this valuable resource. It has been argued that climate change may contribute to the severity of the issue; hence “impact assessment” is being replaced by “adaptation,” which explores more adapting scenarios and approaches. This study explores the adaptability of the proposed cyclic and non-cyclic conjunctive use of groundwater and surface water resources in increasing groundwater sustainability while increasing the sustainability of water allocation to the agricultural sector under possible climate change scenarios. To simulate climate change in the study area, precipitation and temperature variables are extracted from the results of three global atmospheric circulation models (Ensemble, CMCC-CMS, MRI-CGCM3) under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 greenhouse gas emission scenarios in the period of 2021–2031. Spatial downscaling is performed using the M5 decision tree algorithm. The Wavelet-M5 hybrid model is used to predict runoff values as a rainfall-runoff model. Also, the Kharrufa method is applied to calculate evaporation in the future seasons. The system's adaptability to climate change is examined using the multi-objective cyclic and non-cyclic conjunctive use of surface and groundwater models. The study reveals that cyclic operation strategy improves the conjunctive use system adaptability compared to the optimal operation strategy that employs the non-cyclic approach. In this study's case study, the improvement in groundwater sustainability index exceeds 27 percent over the non-cyclic conjunctive use strategy.

Suggested Citation

  • Abbas Afshar & Mina Khosravi & Amir Molajou, 2021. "Assessing Adaptability of Cyclic and Non-Cyclic Approach to Conjunctive use of Groundwater and Surface water for Sustainable Management Plans under Climate Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(11), pages 3463-3479, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:35:y:2021:i:11:d:10.1007_s11269-021-02887-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-021-02887-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Elpida Kolokytha & Dimitrios Malamataris, 2020. "Integrated Water Management Approach for Adaptation to Climate Change in Highly Water Stressed Basins," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(3), pages 1173-1197, February.
    2. Dehghanipour, Amir Hossein & Schoups, Gerrit & Zahabiyoun, Bagher & Babazadeh, Hossein, 2020. "Meeting agricultural and environmental water demand in endorheic irrigated river basins: A simulation-optimization approach applied to the Urmia Lake basin in Iran," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    3. Mulu Sewinet Kerebih & Ashok K. Keshari, 2021. "Distributed Simulation‐optimization Model for Conjunctive Use of Groundwater and Surface Water Under Environmental and Sustainability Restrictions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(8), pages 2305-2323, June.
    4. Parvin Golfam & Parisa-Sadat Ashofteh & Taher Rajaee & Xuefeng Chu, 2019. "Prioritization of Water Allocation for Adaptation to Climate Change Using Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(10), pages 3401-3416, August.
    5. Hamamouche, Meriem Farah & Kuper, Marcel & Riaux, Jeanne & Leduc, Christian, 2017. "Conjunctive use of surface and ground water resources in a community-managed irrigation system — The case of the Sidi Okba palm grove in the Algerian Sahara," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 116-130.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mina Khosravi & Abbas Afshar & Amir Molajou, 2022. "Decision Tree-Based Conditional Operation Rules for Optimal Conjunctive Use of Surface and Groundwater," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(6), pages 2013-2025, April.
    2. Saeid Akbarifard & Mohamad Reza Madadi & Mohammad Zounemat-Kermani, 2024. "An artificial intelligence-based model for optimal conjunctive operation of surface and groundwater resources," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.
    3. Chanchai Petpongpan & Chaiwat Ekkawatpanit & Ryan T. Bailey & Duangrudee Kositgittiwong & Phayom Saraphirom, 2022. "Evaluating Surface Water-groundwater Interactions in Consequence of Changes in Climate and Groundwater Extraction," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(14), pages 5767-5783, November.
    4. Abbas Afshar & Elham Soleimanian & Hossein Akbari Variani & Masoud Vahabzadeh & Amir Molajou, 2022. "The conceptual framework to determine interrelations and interactions for holistic Water, Energy, and Food Nexus," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(8), pages 10119-10140, August.
    5. Akbari, Fatemeh & Shourian, Mojtaba & Moridi, Ali, 2022. "Assessment of the climate change impacts on the watershed-scale optimal crop pattern using a surface-groundwater interaction hydro-agronomic model," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    6. Pandey, Vishnu Prasad & Shrestha, Nirman & Urfels, Anton & Ray, Anupama & Khadka, Manohara & Pavelic, Paul & McDonald, Andrew J. & Krupnik, Timothy J., 2023. "Implementing conjunctive management of water resources for irrigation development: A framework applied to the Southern Plain of Western Nepal," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).

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