IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/waterr/v35y2021i11d10.1007_s11269-021-02919-y.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Modelling Approach to Forecast the Effect of Climate Change on the Tagus-Segura Interbasin Water Transfer

Author

Listed:
  • Javier Senent-Aparicio

    (Catholic University of Murcia (UCAM))

  • Adrián López-Ballesteros

    (Catholic University of Murcia (UCAM))

  • Francisco Cabezas

    (Euro-Mediterranean Water Institute
    University of Murcia)

  • Julio Pérez-Sánchez

    (Catholic University of Murcia (UCAM))

  • Eugenio Molina-Navarro

    (University of Alcalá)

Abstract

This study was conducted in the upper Tagus River basin (UTRB), whose available water resources are partially transferred from the Entrepeñas and Buendía reservoirs after local needs satisfaction to the Segura River basin using the Tagus-Segura water transfer (TSWT), the largest hydraulic infrastructure in Spain. This study evaluates the climate change impact on the TSWT by considering future evaporation rates and bathymetric changes in the Entrepeñas and Buendía reservoirs. The findings of this study indicate a consistent decline in precipitation and an increase in temperature and evaporation under all climate impact scenarios. Consequently, inflows to the reservoirs will decline by 19% (RCP 4.5) and 53% (RCP 8.5) for 2070–2099, which could reduce water volumes that could be transferred to the Segura basin by more than 60%. The simulation of the TSWT operation rules, taking into account the impact of future evaporation and bathymetric changes, demonstrates an additional increase in reductions of water transfer of around 4%, which reveals the need to consider these effects in hydrological planning.

Suggested Citation

  • Javier Senent-Aparicio & Adrián López-Ballesteros & Francisco Cabezas & Julio Pérez-Sánchez & Eugenio Molina-Navarro, 2021. "A Modelling Approach to Forecast the Effect of Climate Change on the Tagus-Segura Interbasin Water Transfer," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(11), pages 3791-3808, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:35:y:2021:i:11:d:10.1007_s11269-021-02919-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-021-02919-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11269-021-02919-y
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11269-021-02919-y?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Elpida Kolokytha & Dimitrios Malamataris, 2020. "Integrated Water Management Approach for Adaptation to Climate Change in Highly Water Stressed Basins," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(3), pages 1173-1197, February.
    2. David Martínez-Granados & José Maestre-Valero & Javier Calatrava & Victoriano Martínez-Alvarez, 2011. "The Economic Impact of Water Evaporation Losses from Water Reservoirs in the Segura Basin, SE Spain," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(13), pages 3153-3175, October.
    3. Aghapour Sabbaghi, Mohammad & Nazari, Mohammadreza & Araghinejad, Shahab & Soufizadeh, Saeid, 2020. "Economic impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in Zayandehroud river basin in Iran," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    4. Farhad Yazdandoost & Sogol Moradian & Ardalan Izadi, 2020. "Evaluation of Water Sustainability under a Changing Climate in Zarrineh River Basin, Iran," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(15), pages 4831-4846, December.
    5. Daniel Althoff & Lineu Neiva Rodrigues & Demetrius David Silva, 2020. "Impacts of climate change on the evaporation and availability of water in small reservoirs in the Brazilian savannah," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 159(2), pages 215-232, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tao Bai & Lei Li & Peng-fei Mu & Bao-zhu Pan & Jin Liu, 2023. "Impact of Climate Change on Water Transfer Scale of Inter-basin Water Diversion Project," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(6), pages 2505-2525, May.
    2. Yeşim Ahi & Çiğdem Coşkun Dilcan & Daniyal Durmuş Köksal & Hüseyin Tevfik Gültaş, 2023. "Reservoir Evaporation Forecasting Based on Climate Change Scenarios Using Artificial Neural Network Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(6), pages 2607-2624, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Martin-Gorriz, B. & Soto-García, M. & Martínez-Alvarez, V., 2014. "Energy and greenhouse-gas emissions in irrigated agriculture of SE (southeast) Spain. Effects of alternative water supply scenarios," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 478-488.
    2. Dolores Rey & Alberto Garrido & Javier Calatrava, 2016. "An Innovative Option Contract for Allocating Water in Inter-Basin Transfers: the Case of the Tagus-Segura Transfer in Spain," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(3), pages 1165-1182, February.
    3. Alisson Lopes Rodrigues & Lineu Neiva Rodrigues & Guilherme Fernandes Marques & Pedro Manuel Villa, 2023. "Simulation Model to Assess the Water Dynamics in Small Reservoirs," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(5), pages 2019-2038, March.
    4. Phong Nguyen Thanh & Thinh Le Van & Tuan Tran Minh & Tuyen Huynh Ngoc & Worapong Lohpaisankrit & Quoc Bao Pham & Alexandre S. Gagnon & Proloy Deb & Nhat Truong Pham & Duong Tran Anh & Vuong Nguyen Din, 2023. "Adapting to Climate-Change-Induced Drought Stress to Improve Water Management in Southeast Vietnam," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-27, June.
    5. Julian David Hunt & Giacomo Falchetta & Behnam Zakeri & Andreas Nascimento & Paulo Smith Schneider & Natália Assis Brasil Weber & André Luiz Amarante Mesquita & Paulo Sergio Franco Barbosa & Nivalde J, 2020. "Hydropower impact on the river flow of a humid regional climate," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(1), pages 379-393, November.
    6. Samira Shayanmehr & Jana Ivanič Porhajašová & Mária Babošová & Mahmood Sabouhi Sabouni & Hosein Mohammadi & Shida Rastegari Henneberry & Naser Shahnoushi Foroushani, 2022. "The Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources and Crop Production in an Arid Region," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-22, July.
    7. J. Maestre-Valero & D. Martínez-Granados & V. Martínez-Alvarez & J. Calatrava, 2013. "Socio-Economic Impact of Evaporation Losses from Reservoirs Under Past, Current and Future Water Availability Scenarios in the Semi-Arid Segura Basin," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(5), pages 1411-1426, March.
    8. El Bilali, Ali & Taghi, Youssef & Briouel, Omar & Taleb, Abdeslam & Brouziyne, Youssef, 2022. "A framework based on high-resolution imagery datasets and MCS for forecasting evaporation loss from small reservoirs in groundwater-based agriculture," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    9. Soroush Kiani Ghalehsard & Javad Shahraki & Ahmad Akbari & Ali Sardar Shahraki, 2021. "Assessment of the impacts of climate change and variability on water resources and use, food security, and economic welfare in Iran," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(10), pages 14666-14682, October.
    10. Parvin Golfam & Parisa-Sadat Ashofteh, 2022. "Performance Indexes Analysis of the Reservoir-Hydropower Plant System Affected by Climate Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(13), pages 5127-5162, October.
    11. Hossein Mikhak & Mehdi Rahimian & Saeed Gholamrezai, 2022. "Implications of changing cropping pattern to low water demand plants due to climate change: evidence from Iran," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(8), pages 9833-9850, August.
    12. Soto-García, M. & Martínez-Alvarez, V. & García-Bastida, P.A. & Alcon, F. & Martin-Gorriz, B., 2013. "Effect of water scarcity and modernisation on the performance of irrigation districts in south-eastern Spain," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 11-19.
    13. Soto-García, M. & Martin-Gorriz, B. & García-Bastida, P.A. & Alcon, F. & Martínez-Alvarez, V., 2013. "Energy consumption for crop irrigation in a semiarid climate (south-eastern Spain)," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 1084-1093.
    14. Babaeian, Fariba & Delavar, Majid & Morid, Saeed & Srinivasan, Raghavan, 2021. "Robust climate change adaptation pathways in agricultural water management," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 252(C).
    15. Sergio M. Vicente‐Serrano & Tim R. McVicar & Diego G. Miralles & Yuting Yang & Miquel Tomas‐Burguera, 2020. "Unraveling the influence of atmospheric evaporative demand on drought and its response to climate change," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 11(2), March.
    16. Sandra Ricart & Rubén A. Villar-Navascués & Maria Hernández-Hernández & Antonio M. Rico-Amorós & Jorge Olcina-Cantos & Enrique Moltó-Mantero, 2021. "Extending Natural Limits to Address Water Scarcity? The Role of Non-Conventional Water Fluxes in Climate Change Adaptation Capacity: A Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-31, February.
    17. Vassilis Z. Antonopoulos & Soultana K. Gianniou, 2023. "Energy Budget, Water Quality Parameters and Primary Production Modeling in Lake Volvi in Northern Greece," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-22, January.
    18. Perin, Vinicius & Tulbure, Mirela G. & Gaines, Mollie D. & Reba, Michele L. & Yaeger, Mary A., 2021. "On-farm reservoir monitoring using Landsat inundation datasets," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    19. Abbas Afshar & Mina Khosravi & Amir Molajou, 2021. "Assessing Adaptability of Cyclic and Non-Cyclic Approach to Conjunctive use of Groundwater and Surface water for Sustainable Management Plans under Climate Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(11), pages 3463-3479, September.
    20. Junfang Liu & Baolin Xue & Yuhui Yan, 2020. "The Assessment of Climate Change and Land-Use Influences on the Runoff of a Typical Coastal Basin in Northern China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-13, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:35:y:2021:i:11:d:10.1007_s11269-021-02919-y. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.