IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/stmapp/v33y2024i2d10.1007_s10260-023-00725-x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A predictive model for planning emergency events rescue during COVID-19 in Lombardy, Italy

Author

Listed:
  • Angela Andreella

    (Università degli studi dell’Insubria
    Università Ca’ Foscari di Venezia)

  • Antonietta Mira

    (Università degli studi dell’Insubria
    Università della Svizzera Italiana)

  • Spyros Balafas

    (Università degli studi dell’Insubria
    Università Vita-Salute San Raffaele)

  • Ernst-Jan C. Wit

    (Università della Svizzera Italiana)

  • Fabrizio Ruggeri

    (Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Istituto di Matematica Applicata e Tecnologie Informatiche)

  • Giovanni Nattino

    (Istituto di Ricerche Farmacologiche Mario Negri, IRCCS)

  • Giulia Ghilardi

    (Istituto di Ricerche Farmacologiche Mario Negri, IRCCS)

  • Guido Bertolini

    (Istituto di Ricerche Farmacologiche Mario Negri, IRCCS)

Abstract

Forecasting the volume of emergency events is important for resource utilization in emergency medical services (EMS). This became more evident during the COVID-19 outbreak when emergency event forecasts used by various EMS at that time tended to be inaccurate due to fluctuations in the number, type, and geographical distribution of these events. The motivation for this study was to develop a statistical model capable of predicting the volume of emergency events for Lombardy’s regional EMS called AREU at different time horizons. To accomplish this goal, we propose a negative binomial additive autoregressive model with smoothing splines, which can predict over-dispersed counts of emergency events one, two, five, and seven days ahead. In the model development stage, a large set of covariates was considered, and the final model was selected using a cross-validation procedure that takes into account the observations’ temporal dependence. Comparisons of the forecasting performance using the mean absolute percentage error showed that the proposed model outperformed the model used by AREU, as well as other widely used forecasting models. Consequently, AREU decided to adopt the new model for its forecasting purposes.

Suggested Citation

  • Angela Andreella & Antonietta Mira & Spyros Balafas & Ernst-Jan C. Wit & Fabrizio Ruggeri & Giovanni Nattino & Giulia Ghilardi & Guido Bertolini, 2024. "A predictive model for planning emergency events rescue during COVID-19 in Lombardy, Italy," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 33(2), pages 635-659, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:stmapp:v:33:y:2024:i:2:d:10.1007_s10260-023-00725-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s10260-023-00725-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10260-023-00725-x
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10260-023-00725-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Harvey,Andrew C., 1991. "Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521405737, December.
    2. Vasiliki Christou & Konstantinos Fokianos, 2014. "Quasi-Likelihood Inference For Negative Binomial Time Series Models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(1), pages 55-78, January.
    3. Ludwig Fahrmeir & Stefan Lang, 2001. "Bayesian inference for generalized additive mixed models based on Markov random field priors," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 50(2), pages 201-220.
    4. Simon N. Wood, 2011. "Fast stable restricted maximum likelihood and marginal likelihood estimation of semiparametric generalized linear models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 73(1), pages 3-36, January.
    5. Benjamin Kedem & Konstantinos Fokianos, 2002. "Regression Models for Binary Time Series," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Moshe Dror & Pierre L’Ecuyer & Ferenc Szidarovszky (ed.), Modeling Uncertainty, chapter 0, pages 185-199, Springer.
    6. Simon N. Wood, 2004. "Stable and Efficient Multiple Smoothing Parameter Estimation for Generalized Additive Models," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 99, pages 673-686, January.
    7. X. Lin & D. Zhang, 1999. "Inference in generalized additive mixed modelsby using smoothing splines," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 61(2), pages 381-400, April.
    8. Mohamed A K Al-Azzani & Soheil Davari & Tracey Jane England, 2021. "An empirical investigation of forecasting methods for ambulance calls - a case study," Health Systems, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 268-285, October.
    9. Ricardo D. Kamenetzky & Larry J. Shuman & Harvey Wolfe, 1982. "Estimating Need and Demand for Prehospital Care," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 30(6), pages 1148-1167, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nicole H. Augustin & Stefan Lang & Monica Musio & Klaus Von Wilpert, 2007. "A spatial model for the needle losses of pine‐trees in the forests of Baden‐Württemberg: an application of Bayesian structured additive regression," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 56(1), pages 29-50, January.
    2. Karina Jansone & Anna Eichler & Peter A. Fasching & Johannes Kornhuber & Anna Kaiser & Sabina Millenet & Tobias Banaschewski & Frauke Nees & on behalf of the IMAC-Mind Consortium, 2023. "Association of Maternal Smoking during Pregnancy with Neurophysiological and ADHD-Related Outcomes in School-Aged Children," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(6), pages 1-14, March.
    3. Simon N. Wood, 2006. "Low-Rank Scale-Invariant Tensor Product Smooths for Generalized Additive Mixed Models," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 62(4), pages 1025-1036, December.
    4. Øystein Sørensen & Anders M. Fjell & Kristine B. Walhovd, 2023. "Longitudinal Modeling of Age-Dependent Latent Traits with Generalized Additive Latent and Mixed Models," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 88(2), pages 456-486, June.
    5. Umlauf, Nikolaus & Adler, Daniel & Kneib, Thomas & Lang, Stefan & Zeileis, Achim, 2015. "Structured Additive Regression Models: An R Interface to BayesX," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 63(i21).
    6. Nadja Klein & Michel Denuit & Stefan Lang & Thomas Kneib, 2013. "Nonlife Ratemaking and Risk Management with Bayesian Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape," Working Papers 2013-24, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    7. Rodríguez-Álvarez, María Xosé & Lee, Dae-Jin & Kneib, Thomas & Durbán, María & Eilers, Paul, 2013. "Fast algorithm for smoothing parameter selection in multidimensional generalized P-splines," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws133026, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    8. Klein, Nadja & Denuit, Michel & Lang, Stefan & Kneib, Thomas, 2013. "Nonlife Ratemaking and Risk Management with Bayesian Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2013045, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    9. Longhi, Christian & Musolesi, Antonio & Baumont, Catherine, 2014. "Modeling structural change in the European metropolitan areas during the process of economic integration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 395-407.
    10. Daniel Melser & Robert J. Hill, 2019. "Residential Real Estate, Risk, Return and Diversification: Some Empirical Evidence," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 111-146, July.
    11. Adam R. Pines & Bart Larsen & Zaixu Cui & Valerie J. Sydnor & Maxwell A. Bertolero & Azeez Adebimpe & Aaron F. Alexander-Bloch & Christos Davatzikos & Damien A. Fair & Ruben C. Gur & Raquel E. Gur & H, 2022. "Dissociable multi-scale patterns of development in personalized brain networks," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-15, December.
    12. Jean Chung & Guanchao Tong & Jiayou Chao & Wei Zhu, 2021. "Path Analysis of Sea-Level Rise and Its Impact," Stats, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-14, December.
    13. Rasheed A. Adeyemi & Temesgen Zewotir & Shaun Ramroop, 2016. "Semiparametric Multinomial Ordinal Model to Analyze Spatial Patterns of Child Birth Weight in Nigeria," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-22, November.
    14. Håland Else Marie & Wiig Astrid Salte & Stålhane Magnus & Hvattum Lars Magnus, 2020. "Evaluating the effectiveness of different network flow motifs in association football," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 16(4), pages 311-323, December.
    15. Gerhard Tutz & Jan Gertheiss, 2014. "Rating Scales as Predictors—The Old Question of Scale Level and Some Answers," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 79(3), pages 357-376, July.
    16. Tamvada, Jagannadha Pawan, 2010. "The Dynamics of Self-employment in a Developing Country: Evidence from India," MPRA Paper 20042, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Lulu Shang & Peijun Wu & Xiang Zhou, 2025. "Statistical identification of cell type-specific spatially variable genes in spatial transcriptomics," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-20, December.
    18. Sandra Bilek-Steindl & Christian Glocker & Serguei Kaniovski & Thomas Url, 2016. "Austria 2025 – The Effect of Human Capital Accumulation on Output Growth," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 59175, March.
    19. Hübler, Michael & Bukin, Eduard & Xi, Yuting, 2020. "The effects of international trade on structural change and CO₂ emissions," Kiel Working Papers 2174, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    20. Gerhard Tutz & Harald Binder, 2006. "Generalized Additive Modeling with Implicit Variable Selection by Likelihood-Based Boosting," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 62(4), pages 961-971, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:stmapp:v:33:y:2024:i:2:d:10.1007_s10260-023-00725-x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.