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Methodology for Assessing the Direct and Indirect Impact of Sanctions on the Resource Potential of National and Regional Economies

Author

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  • V. V. Eremin

    (Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation)

  • S. N. Sil’vestrov

    (Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation)

Abstract

The article is devoted to assessing the direct and indirect effects of sanction pressure on the Russian economy. The direct effects of sanctions pressure is assessed based on studying the effect of sanctions on the consumption level for specific supplied products and consequently on developing resource potential required for import substitution. In order to assess the indirect effects of sanctions pressure it is proposed to use the value of the investment multiplier since the multiplier effect of sanctions that reduce production volumes, as well as the multiplier effect of investments in the formation of resource potential necessary for import substitution occur in a fairly wide range of sectors in the Russian economy. The basis for combining approaches to assessing the impact of sanctions on consumption and the results of the multiplier effect is the interaction of supply and demand in the Russian economy. Data from public records made it possible to assess the direct impact of sanctions with regard to the consumption of specific commodity groups in the Russian economy. In order to assess the indirect impact of sanctions, it was calculated how the production of certain types of goods affected the value of the regional investment multiplier (using the case study of Ryazan oblast).

Suggested Citation

  • V. V. Eremin & S. N. Sil’vestrov, 2025. "Methodology for Assessing the Direct and Indirect Impact of Sanctions on the Resource Potential of National and Regional Economies," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 103-112, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sorede:v:36:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1134_s1075700724700576
    DOI: 10.1134/S1075700724700576
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Oleg Itskhoki & Dmitry Mukhin, 2022. "Sanctions and the Exchange Rate," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 57(3), pages 148-151, May.
    2. Vladimir V. Eremin, 2022. "Fractal Basis of Multiplicative Processes in the Investment Sphere," Economics of Contemporary Russia, Regional Public Organization for Assistance to the Development of Institutions of the Department of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, issue 1.
    3. Ricardo Hausmann & Jason Hwang & Dani Rodrik, 2007. "What you export matters," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 1-25, March.
    4. Du, Xiayi & Wang, Zi, 2022. "Multinationals, global value chains, and the welfare impacts of economic sanctions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    5. Nina Goridko & Robert Nizhegorodtsev, 2018. "The Growth Points of Regional Economy and Regression Estimation for Branch Investment Multipliers," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(1), pages 29-42.
    6. M. Yu. Ksenofontov & A. A. Shirov & D. A. Polzikov & A. A. Yantovskii, 2018. "Assessing Multiplier Effects in the Russian Economy: Input-Output Approach," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 109-115, March.
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