IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/sorede/v36y2025i1d10.1134_s1075700724700503.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on the Russian Economy Using Integrated Assessment Models (IAM)

Author

Listed:
  • B. N. Porfiriev

    (Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences)

  • A. Yu. Kolpakov

    (Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences)

  • E. A. Lazeeva

    (Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) have gained a prominent role in the global practice for assessing the economic effects of climate change. Based on four IAMs adapted by the authors, the economic impact of climate change in Russia until 2060 has been calculated. According to the obtained model calculations, the magnitude of this effect varies widely: from –1.3 trillion to +200 billion rubles by 2040; from –3 trillion to +300 billion rubles by 2060 (in 2021 prices). The simplified nature of the IAM methodology that provides for its tendency to reproduce nonlinearly increasing damages implies that the assessment values the abovementioned economic effects of climate change are actually crude numbers. In this regard, these should be perceived primarily with respect to the qualitative interpretation of the emerging outcomes (damage or benefit) and be considered in terms of order of magnitude estimates of the expected damage or benefit, respectively, given the measures to adapt the population and the economy to climate change are missing.

Suggested Citation

  • B. N. Porfiriev & A. Yu. Kolpakov & E. A. Lazeeva, 2025. "Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on the Russian Economy Using Integrated Assessment Models (IAM)," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 35-44, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sorede:v:36:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1134_s1075700724700503
    DOI: 10.1134/S1075700724700503
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1134/S1075700724700503
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1134/S1075700724700503?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bilal, Adrien & Känzig, Diego, 2024. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Climate Change: Global vs. Local Temperature," CEPR Discussion Papers 19203, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Ackerman, Frank & Munitz, Charles, 2012. "Climate damages in the FUND model: A disaggregated analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 219-224.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. van den Bergh, J.C.J.M. & Botzen, W.J.W., 2015. "Monetary valuation of the social cost of CO2 emissions: A critical survey," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 33-46.
    2. Rennels, Lisa & Rennert, Kevin & Errickson, Frank & Anthoff, David & Wingenroth, Jordan & Prest, Brian C., 2024. "Accounting for Biodiversity Loss Raises the Social Cost of CO2," RFF Working Paper Series 24-23, Resources for the Future.
    3. Vicente Ferreira & Joao Pedro Ferreira & Dario Guarascio & Francesco Zezza, 2024. "Shockflation in the EU: sectoral shocks, cost-push inflation and structural asymmetries in core and periphery countries," LEM Papers Series 2024/31, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    4. Changxin Liu & Hailing Zhang & Zheng Wang, 2019. "Study on the Functional Improvement of Economic Damage Assessment for the Integrated Assessment Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-18, February.
    5. Richard S.J. Tol, 2021. "Estimates of the social cost of carbon have not changed over time," Working Paper Series 0821, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    6. Francesco Jacopo Pintus & Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Elmer Sterken & Jan Jacobs, 2024. "Fiscal Impacts of Climate Anomalies," CESifo Working Paper Series 11548, CESifo.
    7. Teresa Janz & Gassmann,Franziska & de Ervin,Lyliana Gayoso, 2024. "Weathering Shocks : Unraveling the Effects of Short-Term Weather Shocks on Poverty in Paraguay," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10970, The World Bank.
    8. Broeders, Dirk & Dimitrov, Daniel & Verhoeven, Niek, 2025. "Climate-linked bonds," Working Paper Series 3011, European Central Bank.
    9. Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana & Janda, Karel & Zilberman, David, 2015. "Selective reporting and the social cost of carbon," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 394-406.
    10. Johannes Emmerling, 2018. "Sharing Of Climate Risks Across World Regions," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(03), pages 1-19, August.
    11. Zhang, Hailing & Liu, Changxin & Wang, Can, 2021. "Extreme climate events and economic impacts in China: A CGE analysis with a new damage function in IAM," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    12. van den Bijgaart, Inge & Gerlagh, Reyer & Liski, Matti, 2016. "A simple formula for the social cost of carbon," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 75-94.
    13. Berg, Kimberly A. & Curtis, Chadwick C. & Mark, Nelson C., 2024. "GDP and temperature: Evidence on cross-country response heterogeneity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    14. Zhou, Li & Turvey, Calum G., 2014. "Climate change, adaptation and China's grain production," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 72-89.
    15. Kai Lessmann & Friedemann Gruner & Matthias Kalkuhl & Ottmar Edenhofer, 2024. "Emissions Trading with Clean-up Certificates: Deterring Mitigation or Increasing Ambition?," CEPA Discussion Papers 79, Center for Economic Policy Analysis.
    16. Eickmeier, Sandra & Quast, Josefine & Schüler, Yves, 2024. "Macroeconomic and Financial Effects of Natural Disasters," CEPR Discussion Papers 18940, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Elias Hasler, 2025. "Assessing the Global Impact of EU Carbon Pricing: Economic and Climate Spillovers," Working Papers 2025-01, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    18. Marcelle Chauvet & Claudio Morana & Murilo Silva, 2025. "Extreme Weather in Europe: Determinants and Economic Impact," Working Papers 547, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics.
    19. Michael Grubb & Jean-Francois Mercure & Pablo Salas & Rutger-Jan Lange & Ida Sognnaes, 2018. "Systems Innovation, Inertia and Pliability: A mathematical exploration with implications for climate change abatement," Working Papers EPRG 1808, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    20. Bachmann, Ronald & Janser, Markus & Lehmer, Florian & Vonnahme, Christina, 2024. "Disentangling the Greening of the Labour Market: The Role of Changing Occupations and Worker Flows," IAB-Discussion Paper 202412, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:sorede:v:36:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1134_s1075700724700503. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.