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Approaches to the Forecast Formation of the Development of the Russian Energy Sector as a Component Part of Scenarios for Decarbonization of the Country’s Economy

Author

Listed:
  • S. P. Filippov

    (Energy Research Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences)

  • F. V. Veselov

    (Energy Research Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences)

  • A. V. Keiko

    (Energy Research Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences)

  • A. A. Khorshev

    (Energy Research Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

— The article deals with topical issues of creating an integral prognostic system to substantiate decarbonization scenarios for the country’s economy, integrating macroeconomic forecasts with energy development parameters and taking into account the dynamics of trends in the global economy and energy. The main attention is paid to the problems of energy forecasting in the context of decarbonization of the economy and the structure of the corresponding forecasting module. The foreign experience of organizing such forecasting activities is analyzed. The structure of the Russian energy forecasting module is proposed, taking into account the existing scientific background and modeling tools. The module includes calculation blocks: demand for fuel and energy resources, optimization of the development and technological structure of the national energy sector and its industries, assessment of the economic parameters of their development; supplementing blocks: technological information, coordination of calculation results. A scheme of interaction of blocks according to the stages of solving forecast problems for the operational coordination of the forecast parameters of the country’s fuel and energy and inter-sectoral balances and for a more detailed study of the technological and regional structure and financial and economic assessment of the fuel and energy sectors is proposed.

Suggested Citation

  • S. P. Filippov & F. V. Veselov & A. V. Keiko & A. A. Khorshev, 2023. "Approaches to the Forecast Formation of the Development of the Russian Energy Sector as a Component Part of Scenarios for Decarbonization of the Country’s Economy," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 34(6), pages 769-777, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sorede:v:34:y:2023:i:6:d:10.1134_s1075700723060035
    DOI: 10.1134/S1075700723060035
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. V. A. Malakhov & K. V. Nesytykh, 2022. "Russia’s Long-Term Macroeconomic Losses and Benefits from the Low-Carbon Development of the World and Domestic Energy Industry," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 33(4), pages 392-401, August.
    2. F. V. Veselov & A. A. Khorshev & I. V. Erokhina & R. O. Alikin, 2023. "Study of Directions and Associated Costs in Reducing Carbon Emissions in the Electric Power Industry until 2050, Taking Into Account Intersectoral Factors," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 34(6), pages 778-785, December.
    3. Fragkos, Panagiotis & Tasios, Nikos & Paroussos, Leonidas & Capros, Pantelis & Tsani, Stella, 2017. "Energy system impacts and policy implications of the European Intended Nationally Determined Contribution and low-carbon pathway to 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 216-226.
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