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Anticipating technological breakthroughs: Using bibliographic coupling to explore the nanotubes paradigm

Author

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  • Osmo Kuusi

    (VATT Government Institute for Economic Research)

  • Martin Meyer

    (University of Sussex
    K.U. Leuven
    Helsinki University of Technology)

Abstract

There is general consensus that the field of nanotechnology will be very important in the future. An open question is, however, which technological approaches or paradigms will be important in the field. The paper assumes that the carbon nanotube will be a key element of an emerging technological paradigm in nanotechnology. This study employs a bibliometric method — bibliographic coupling — to identify important nanotubes-related ‘leitbilder’ — a concept meaning ‘guiding images’ that provide a basis for different professions and disciplines to work in the same direction. Until recently, bibliographic coupling has been applied rarely for purposes of research evaluation, not to mention technology foresight. Our case study seems to suggest that bibliographic coupling is particularly suitable for anticipating technological breakthroughs. Bibliographic coupling analysis of recent nanotube-related patents focused our attention to recent patents owned by Nantero Inc. Nantero’s main focus is the development of NRAM — a high-density nonvolatile random access memory. The NRAM leitbild seems to be an important emerging leitbild. It connects technical opportunities and promising applications relating to the memories in devices such as cell phones, MP3 players, digital cameras, as well as applications in networking arena.

Suggested Citation

  • Osmo Kuusi & Martin Meyer, 2007. "Anticipating technological breakthroughs: Using bibliographic coupling to explore the nanotubes paradigm," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 70(3), pages 759-777, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:scient:v:70:y:2007:i:3:d:10.1007_s11192-007-0311-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s11192-007-0311-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Suominen, Arho & Peng, Haoshu & Ranaei, Samira, 2019. "Examining the dynamics of an emerging research network using the case of triboelectric nanogenerators," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 820-830.
    7. Pao-Long Chang & Chao-Chan Wu & Hoang-Jyh Leu, 2010. "Using patent analyses to monitor the technological trends in an emerging field of technology: a case of carbon nanotube field emission display," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 82(1), pages 5-19, January.
    8. Rotolo, Daniele & Hicks, Diana & Martin, Ben R., 2015. "What is an emerging technology?," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(10), pages 1827-1843.
    9. Donghyun Choi & Bomi Song, 2018. "Exploring Technological Trends in Logistics: Topic Modeling-Based Patent Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-26, August.
    10. Gustafsson, Robin & Kuusi, Osmo & Meyer, Martin, 2015. "Examining open-endedness of expectations in emerging technological fields: The case of cellulosic ethanol," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 179-193.
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    13. Kuan, Chung-Huei & Chen, Dar-Zen & Huang, Mu-Hsuan, 2019. "Bibliographically coupled patents: Their temporal pattern and combined relevance," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4).
    14. Niemann, Helen & Moehrle, Martin G. & Frischkorn, Jonas, 2017. "Use of a new patent text-mining and visualization method for identifying patenting patterns over time: Concept, method and test application," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 210-220.
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