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Expertise in the Future Use of Generic Technologies

Author

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  • Kuusi, Osmo

Abstract

In 1990s there has been a "boom" of extensive technology foresight studies based on the use of the Delphi method. This study examines critically e.g. national foresight studies made in Japan, Germany, the United Kingdom and Austria. The study suggests that the epistemic paradigm of the general theory of consistency (GTC), presented in the book, can provide working epistemic foundations for futures studies and for technology foresight Delphi studies in special. Results of the national foresight exercises are examined with an epistemic utility model based on GTC. The epistemic utility is a modification of the traditional utility concept of investment theory. New conceptual tools are used for the analysis of the expertise and information policies of different expert groups in technology Delphi studies. Empirical background of discussion are three technology Delphi studies made by the author. They concerned use of computer based information services of households, new biotechnology and the material technology. Based on these studies a special interpretation of the Delphi method is provided: the Argument Delphi.

Suggested Citation

  • Kuusi, Osmo, 1999. "Expertise in the Future Use of Generic Technologies," Research Reports 59, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:fer:resrep:59
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    File URL: https://www.doria.fi/handle/10024/148479
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    Cited by:

    1. Dufva, Mikko & Ahlqvist, Toni, 2015. "Knowledge creation dynamics in foresight: A knowledge typology and exploratory method to analyse foresight workshops," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 251-268.
    2. Gustafsson, Robin & Kuusi, Osmo & Meyer, Martin, 2015. "Examining open-endedness of expectations in emerging technological fields: The case of cellulosic ethanol," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 179-193.
    3. Tuomo Uotila & Toni Ahlqvist, 2007. "Linking Technology Foresight and Regional Innovation Activities: Network Facilitating Innovation Policy in Lahti Region, Finland," European Planning Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(10), pages 1423-1443, July.
    4. Huan-Niemi, Ellen & Niskanen, Olli & Rikkonen, Pasi & Rintamaki, Heidi, 2015. "Forecasting mitigation measures for agricultural greenhouse gas emissions in Finland," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211751, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    5. repec:wsi:ijimxx:v:13:y:2009:i:01:n:s1363919609002224 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:eee:forpol:v:82:y:2017:i:c:p:30-40 is not listed on IDEAS

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