IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/scient/v127y2022i11d10.1007_s11192-022-04509-0.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Does early publishing in top journals really predict long-term scientific success in the business field?

Author

Listed:
  • Li Hou

    (University of Science and Technology of China)

  • Qiang Wu

    (University of Science and Technology of China)

  • Yundong Xie

    (University of Science and Technology of China)

Abstract

The soaring number of researchers has led to increasingly intense competition in academia. Early identification of scientists’ potential is a practical but difficult issue currently attracting escalating attention. This study takes the business field as an example and explores whether early publishing in top journals is an effective yardstick to recognise scientists who will have better academic performance in their careers. We extract the career records of publication and citations for 1933 business scientists with stable and continuous publication records from the combination of the ORCID and Scopus databases. Through regression analysis and various checks, we find that researchers publishing in top journals early in their careers indeed perform better subsequently compared to peers with similar early career profiles but no top journal publications. Our research sheds light on a new perspective for early identification of potential star scientists, especially in the business field, and justifies encouraging junior researchers to devote themselves to publishing in top-ranked peer-reviewed journals.

Suggested Citation

  • Li Hou & Qiang Wu & Yundong Xie, 2022. "Does early publishing in top journals really predict long-term scientific success in the business field?," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 127(11), pages 6083-6107, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:scient:v:127:y:2022:i:11:d:10.1007_s11192-022-04509-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s11192-022-04509-0
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11192-022-04509-0
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11192-022-04509-0?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Seeber, Marco & Cattaneo, Mattia & Meoli, Michele & Malighetti, Paolo, 2019. "Self-citations as strategic response to the use of metrics for career decisions," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 478-491.
    2. Vinod Mishra & Russell Smyth, 2013. "Are more senior academics really more research productive than junior academics? Evidence from Australian law schools," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 96(2), pages 411-425, August.
    3. Samuel F. Way & Allison C. Morgan & Daniel B. Larremore & Aaron Clauset, 2019. "Productivity, prominence, and the effects of academic environment," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 116(22), pages 10729-10733, May.
    4. Higham, K.W. & Governale, M. & Jaffe, A.B. & Zülicke, U., 2017. "Unraveling the dynamics of growth, aging and inflation for citations to scientific articles from specific research fields," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 1190-1200.
    5. Christopher McCarty & James W. Jawitz & Allison Hopkins & Alex Goldman, 2013. "Predicting author h-index using characteristics of the co-author network," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 96(2), pages 467-483, August.
    6. Bornmann, Lutz & Williams, Richard, 2017. "Can the journal impact factor be used as a criterion for the selection of junior researchers? A large-scale empirical study based on ResearcherID data," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 788-799.
    7. Vogel, Rick & Hattke, Fabian & Petersen, Jessica, 2017. "Journal rankings in management and business studies: What rules do we play by?," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(10), pages 1707-1722.
    8. Dag W. Aksnes & Liv Langfeldt & Paul Wouters, 2019. "Citations, Citation Indicators, and Research Quality: An Overview of Basic Concepts and Theories," SAGE Open, , vol. 9(1), pages 21582440198, February.
    9. Rickard Danell, 2011. "Can the quality of scientific work be predicted using information on the author's track record?," Journal of the Association for Information Science & Technology, Association for Information Science & Technology, vol. 62(1), pages 50-60, January.
    10. Yajie Zhang & Qiang Yu, 2020. "What is the best article publishing strategy for early career scientists?," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 122(1), pages 397-408, January.
    11. Gomez, Charles J. & Herman, Andrew C. & Parigi, Paolo, 2020. "Moving more, but closer: Mapping the growing regionalization of global scientific mobility using ORCID," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3).
    12. Gaule, Patrick & Piacentini, Mario, 2018. "An advisor like me? Advisor gender and post-graduate careers in science," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(4), pages 805-813.
    13. Vieira, E.S. & Gomes, J.A.N.F., 2010. "Citations to scientific articles: Its distribution and dependence on the article features," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 1-13.
    14. Lorna Wildgaard & Jesper W. Schneider & Birger Larsen, 2014. "A review of the characteristics of 108 author-level bibliometric indicators," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 101(1), pages 125-158, October.
    15. Lu Liu & Yang Wang & Roberta Sinatra & C. Lee Giles & Chaoming Song & Dashun Wang, 2018. "Hot streaks in artistic, cultural, and scientific careers," Nature, Nature, vol. 559(7714), pages 396-399, July.
    16. Staša Milojević & Filippo Radicchi & John P. Walsh, 2018. "Changing demographics of scientific careers: The rise of the temporary workforce," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 115(50), pages 12616-12623, December.
    17. Mengjiao Qi & An Zeng & Menghui Li & Ying Fan & Zengru Di, 2017. "Standing on the shoulders of giants: the effect of outstanding scientists on young collaborators’ careers," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 111(3), pages 1839-1850, June.
    18. Jean F. Liénard & Titipat Achakulvisut & Daniel E. Acuna & Stephen V. David, 2018. "Intellectual synthesis in mentorship determines success in academic careers," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-13, December.
    19. ., 2017. "Standing on the shoulders of giants," Chapters, in: Endogenous Innovation, chapter 1, pages 3-24, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    20. Amjad, Tehmina & Ding, Ying & Xu, Jian & Zhang, Chenwei & Daud, Ali & Tang, Jie & Song, Min, 2017. "Standing on the shoulders of giants," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 307-323.
    21. Waltman, Ludo, 2016. "A review of the literature on citation impact indicators," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 365-391.
    22. Rickard Danell, 2011. "Can the quality of scientific work be predicted using information on the author's track record?," Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology, Association for Information Science & Technology, vol. 62(1), pages 50-60, January.
    23. Li, Eldon Y. & Liao, Chien Hsiang & Yen, Hsiuju Rebecca, 2013. "Co-authorship networks and research impact: A social capital perspective," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(9), pages 1515-1530.
    24. Gaule, Patrick & Piacentini, Mario, 2017. "An Advisor Like Me? Advisor Gender and Post-Graduate Careers in Science," IZA Discussion Papers 10828, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    25. Daniel E. Acuna & Stefano Allesina & Konrad P. Kording, 2012. "Predicting scientific success," Nature, Nature, vol. 489(7415), pages 201-202, September.
    26. Amin Mazloumian, 2012. "Predicting Scholars' Scientific Impact," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(11), pages 1-5, November.
    27. Heinze, Thomas & Shapira, Philip & Rogers, Juan D. & Senker, Jacqueline M., 2009. "Organizational and institutional influences on creativity in scientific research," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 610-623, May.
    28. Frandsen, Tove Faber & Nicolaisen, Jeppe, 2010. "What is in a name? Credit assignment practices in different disciplines," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 608-617.
    29. Peter van den Besselaar & Ulf Sandström, 2016. "Gender differences in research performance and its impact on careers: a longitudinal case study," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 106(1), pages 143-162, January.
    30. Mingers, John & Leydesdorff, Loet, 2015. "A review of theory and practice in scientometrics," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 246(1), pages 1-19.
    31. Yang Wang & Benjamin F. Jones & Dashun Wang, 2019. "Early-career setback and future career impact," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-10, December.
    32. Vincent Larivière & Yves Gingras & Cassidy R. Sugimoto & Andrew Tsou, 2015. "Team size matters: Collaboration and scientific impact since 1900," Journal of the Association for Information Science & Technology, Association for Information Science & Technology, vol. 66(7), pages 1323-1332, July.
    33. Weihua Li & Tomaso Aste & Fabio Caccioli & Giacomo Livan, 2019. "Early coauthorship with top scientists predicts success in academic careers," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-9, December.
    34. Tao Jia & Dashun Wang & Boleslaw K. Szymanski, 2017. "Quantifying patterns of research-interest evolution," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 1(4), pages 1-7, April.
    35. Drivas, Kyriakos & Kremmydas, Dimitris, 2020. "The Matthew effect of a journal's ranking," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(4).
    36. Danielle H. Lee, 2019. "Predicting the research performance of early career scientists," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 121(3), pages 1481-1504, December.
    37. Waltman, Ludo & van Eck, Nees Jan, 2015. "Field-normalized citation impact indicators and the choice of an appropriate counting method," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 872-894.
    38. Zhao, Zhenyue & Bu, Yi & Kang, Lele & Min, Chao & Bian, Yiyang & Tang, Li & Li, Jiang, 2020. "An investigation of the relationship between scientists’ mobility to/from China and their research performance," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2).
    39. Lindahl, Jonas, 2018. "Predicting research excellence at the individual level: The importance of publication rate, top journal publications, and top 10% publications in the case of early career mathematicians," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 518-533.
    40. Netter, Jeffry M. & Poulsen, Annette B. & Kieser, William P., 2018. "What does it take? Comparison of research standards for promotion in finance," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 379-387.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gen-Chang Hsu & Wei-Jiun Lin & Syuan-Jyun Sun, 2023. "Temporal trends in academic performance and career duration of principal investigators in ecology and evolutionary biology in Taiwan," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 128(6), pages 3437-3451, June.
    2. Ruilu Yang & Qiang Wu & Yundong Xie, 2023. "Are scientific articles involving corporations associated with higher citations and views? an analysis of the top journals in business research," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 128(10), pages 5659-5685, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wanjun Xia & Tianrui Li & Chongshou Li, 2023. "A review of scientific impact prediction: tasks, features and methods," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 128(1), pages 543-585, January.
    2. Batista-Jr, Antônio de Abreu & Gouveia, Fábio Castro & Mena-Chalco, Jesús P., 2021. "Predicting the Q of junior researchers using data from the first years of publication," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2).
    3. Shen, Hongquan & Cheng, Ying & Ju, Xiufang & Xie, Juan, 2022. "Rethinking the effect of inter-gender collaboration on research performance for scholars," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(4).
    4. Danielle H. Lee, 2019. "Predicting the research performance of early career scientists," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 121(3), pages 1481-1504, December.
    5. Xie, Qing & Zhang, Xinyuan & Kim, Giyeong & Song, Min, 2022. "Exploring the influence of coauthorship with top scientists on researchers’ affiliation, research topic, productivity, and impact," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3).
    6. Yuhao Zhou & Ruijie Wang & An Zeng, 2022. "Predicting the impact and publication date of individual scientists’ future papers," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 127(4), pages 1867-1882, April.
    7. Lu Liu & Benjamin F. Jones & Brian Uzzi & Dashun Wang, 2023. "Data, measurement and empirical methods in the science of science," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 7(7), pages 1046-1058, July.
    8. Zhiya Zuo & Kang Zhao, 2021. "Understanding and predicting future research impact at different career stages—A social network perspective," Journal of the Association for Information Science & Technology, Association for Information Science & Technology, vol. 72(4), pages 454-472, April.
    9. Yu, Xiaoyao & Szymanski, Boleslaw K. & Jia, Tao, 2021. "Become a better you: Correlation between the change of research direction and the change of scientific performance," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3).
    10. Jonas Lindahl & Cristian Colliander & Rickard Danell, 2020. "Early career performance and its correlation with gender and publication output during doctoral education," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 122(1), pages 309-330, January.
    11. Zhu, Wanying & Jin, Ching & Ma, Yifang & Xu, Cong, 2023. "Earlier recognition of scientific excellence enhances future achievements and promotes persistence," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2).
    12. Rodrigo Dorantes-Gilardi & Aurora A. Ramírez-Álvarez & Diana Terrazas-Santamaría, 2021. "Is there a differentiated gender effect of collaboration with supercited authors? Evidence from early-career economists," Serie documentos de trabajo del Centro de Estudios Económicos 2021-05, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos.
    13. Liu, Meijun & Jaiswal, Ajay & Bu, Yi & Min, Chao & Yang, Sijie & Liu, Zhibo & Acuña, Daniel & Ding, Ying, 2022. "Team formation and team impact: The balance between team freshness and repeat collaboration," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(4).
    14. Waltman, Ludo, 2016. "A review of the literature on citation impact indicators," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 365-391.
    15. Lubna Zafar & Nayyer Masood & Samreen Ayaz, 2023. "Impact of field of study (FoS) on authors’ citation trend," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 128(4), pages 2557-2576, April.
    16. Rahman, Mohammad Tariqur & Regenstein, Joe Mac & Kassim, Noor Lide Abu & Haque, Nazmul, 2017. "The need to quantify authors’ relative intellectual contributions in a multi-author paper," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 275-281.
    17. Rodrigo Dorantes-Gilardi & Aurora A. Ramírez-Álvarez & Diana Terrazas-Santamaría, 2023. "Is there a differentiated gender effect of collaboration with super-cited authors? Evidence from junior researchers in economics," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 128(4), pages 2317-2336, April.
    18. Yue Wang & Ning Li & Bin Zhang & Qian Huang & Jian Wu & Yang Wang, 2023. "The effect of structural holes on producing novel and disruptive research in physics," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 128(3), pages 1801-1823, March.
    19. Broström, Anders, 2019. "Academic breeding grounds: Home department conditions and early career performance of academic researchers," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(7), pages 1647-1665.
    20. Tehmina Amjad & Nafeesa Shahid & Ali Daud & Asma Khatoon, 2022. "Citation burst prediction in a bibliometric network," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 127(5), pages 2773-2790, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:scient:v:127:y:2022:i:11:d:10.1007_s11192-022-04509-0. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.