IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/reaccs/v27y2022i4d10.1007_s11142-021-09597-6.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Explaining firms’ earnings announcement stock returns using FactSet and I/B/E/S data feeds

Author

Listed:
  • John R. M. Hand

    (UNC–Chapel Hill)

  • Henry Laurion

    (University of Colorado Boulder)

  • Alastair Lawrence

    (London Business School)

  • Nicholas Martin

    (UNC–Chapel Hill)

Abstract

Since 2001, the number of financial statement line items forecasted by analysts and managers that I/B/E/S and FactSet capture in their data feeds has soared. Using this new data, we find that 13 item surprises—11 income statement-based and 2 cash flow statement-based analyst and management guidance surprises—reliably explain firms’ signed earnings announcement returns. No balance sheet or expense surprises are significant. The most important surprises are (i) one-quarter-ahead sales guidance surprise, (ii) analyst sales surprise, (iii) annual Street earnings guidance surprise, and (iv) analyst Street earnings surprise. We also find that the adjusted R2s of our multivariate regressions are three times higher than the adjusted R2s of univariate Street earnings surprise regressions, and that the four most important surprises account for approximately half of this increase in explanatory power.

Suggested Citation

  • John R. M. Hand & Henry Laurion & Alastair Lawrence & Nicholas Martin, 2022. "Explaining firms’ earnings announcement stock returns using FactSet and I/B/E/S data feeds," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 1389-1420, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:reaccs:v:27:y:2022:i:4:d:10.1007_s11142-021-09597-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s11142-021-09597-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11142-021-09597-6
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11142-021-09597-6?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Livnat, Joshua, 2006. "Revenue surprises and stock returns," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1-2), pages 147-171, April.
    2. Beaver, Wh & Clarke, R & Wright, Wf, 1979. "Association Between Unsystematic Security Returns And The Magnitude Of Earnings Forecast Errors," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(2), pages 316-340.
    3. Ball, R & Brown, P, 1968. "Empirical Evaluation Of Accounting Income Numbers," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(2), pages 159-178.
    4. Partha S. Mohanram, 2014. "Analysts' Cash Flow Forecasts and the Decline of the Accruals Anomaly," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(4), pages 1143-1170, December.
    5. Lev, B, 1989. "On The Usefulness Of Earnings And Earnings Research - Lessons And Directions From 2 Decades Of Empirical-Research," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27, pages 153-192.
    6. McInnis, John & Collins, Daniel W., 2011. "The effect of cash flow forecasts on accrual quality and benchmark beating," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 219-239, April.
    7. Dan Givoly & Yifan Li & Ben Lourie & Alexander Nekrasov, 2019. "Key performance indicators as supplements to earnings: Incremental informativeness, demand factors, measurement issues, and properties of their forecasts," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 1147-1183, December.
    8. Lawrence Brown & Kelly Huang & Arianna Pinello, 2013. "To beat or not to beat? The importance of analysts’ cash flow forecasts," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 41(4), pages 723-752, November.
    9. William H. Beaver & Maureen F. McNichols & Zach Z. Wang, 2018. "The information content of earnings announcements: new insights from intertemporal and cross-sectional behavior," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 95-135, March.
    10. Rogers, Jonathan L. & Van Buskirk, Andrew, 2013. "Bundled forecasts in empirical accounting research," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 43-65.
    11. DeFond, Mark & Hung, Mingyi & Trezevant, Robert, 2007. "Investor protection and the information content of annual earnings announcements: International evidence," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 37-67, March.
    12. Beaver, Wh, 1968. "Information Content Of Annual Earnings Announcements," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6, pages 67-92.
    13. McNichols, Maureen & Beaver, William H. & Wang, Zach Zhiguang, 2017. "Increased Information Content of Earnings Announcements in the 21st Century: An Empirical Investigation," Research Papers repec:ecl:stabus:3616, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    14. DeFond, Mark L. & Hung, Mingyi, 2003. "An empirical analysis of analysts' cash flow forecasts," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 73-100, April.
    15. Chuk, Elizabeth & Matsumoto, Dawn & Miller, Gregory S., 2013. "Assessing methods of identifying management forecasts: CIG vs. researcher collected," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 23-42.
    16. Andrew C. Call & Shuping Chen & Yen H. Tong, 2013. "Are Analysts' Cash Flow Forecasts Naïve Extensions of Their Own Earnings Forecasts?," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(2), pages 438-465, June.
    17. Bradshaw, Mark T. & Christensen, Theodore E. & Gee, Kurt H. & Whipple, Benjamin C., 2018. "Analysts’ GAAP earnings forecasts and their implications for accounting research," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 46-66.
    18. Suresh Radhakrishnan & Shu†Ling Wu, 2014. "Analysts' Cash Flow Forecasts and Accrual Mispricing," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(4), pages 1191-1219, December.
    19. Choong‐Yuel Yoo & Jinhan Pae, 2013. "Estimation and Prediction Tests of Cash Flow Forecast Accuracy," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(3), pages 215-225, April.
    20. Lynn Rees & K. Sivaramakrishnan, 2007. "The Effect of Meeting or Beating Revenue Forecasts on the Association between Quarterly Returns and Earnings Forecast Errors," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(1), pages 259-290, March.
    21. Mark T. Bradshaw & Richard G. Sloan, 2002. "GAAP versus The Street: An Empirical Assessment of Two Alternative Definitions of Earnings," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(1), pages 41-66, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. S. P. Kothari & Charles Wasley, 2019. "Commemorating the 50‐Year Anniversary of Ball and Brown (1968): The Evolution of Capital Market Research over the Past 50 Years," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(5), pages 1117-1159, December.
    2. Sandip Dhole & Ferdinand A. Gul & Sagarika Mishra & Ananda M. Pal, 2021. "The joint information role of analysts’ cash flow and earnings forecasts," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(1), pages 499-541, March.
    3. Hyun Min Oh & Ho young Shin, 2019. "A Study on the Relationship between Analysts’ Cash Flow Forecasts Issuance and Accounting Information: Evidence from Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-26, June.
    4. Shuai Shao & Robert Stoumbos & X. Frank Zhang, 2021. "The power of firm fundamental information in explaining stock returns," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 1249-1289, December.
    5. Das, Somnath & King, Alexander Z., 2021. "Measuring the informativeness of earnings announcements: The role of event windows," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 350-367.
    6. Vinay Goyal & Subrata K. Mitra, 2022. "Is the asymmetric impact of aggregate revenue and aggregate earnings on the stock index in accordance with the prospect theory?," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 200-222, March.
    7. Ahsan Habib, 2010. "Value relevance of alternative accounting performance measures: Australian evidence," Accounting Research Journal, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 23(2), pages 190-212, September.
    8. Fargher, Neil & Wee, Marvin, 2019. "The impact of Ball and Brown (1968) on generations of research," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 55-72.
    9. Wenlian Gao, 2024. "Cash flow duration and market reactions to earnings announcements," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 63(2), pages 679-714, August.
    10. Shi, Linna & Zhang, Huai & Guo, Jun, 2014. "Analyst cash flow forecasts and pricing of accruals," Advances in accounting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 95-105.
    11. Paul A. Griffin & David H. Lont, 2021. "Evidence of an increasing trend in earnings surprises over the past two decades: The role of positive manager‐initiated non‐GAAP adjustments," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(9-10), pages 1525-1559, October.
    12. Adnan Shoaib & Muhammad A. Siddiqui, 2022. "Earning information content changes based on accrual measures and quality measures: Evidences from member countries of Asia Pacific trade agreement," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 1526-1546, January.
    13. Pascal Dumontier & Bernard Raffournier, 2002. "Accounting and capital markets: a survey of the European evidence," European Accounting Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 119-151.
    14. Xiaomeng Chen & Meiting Lu & Yaowen Shan & Yizhou Zhang, 2021. "Australian evidence on analysts' cash flow forecasts: issuance, accuracy and usefulness," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(1), pages 3-50, March.
    15. Elizabeth A. Gordon & Elaine Henry & Bjorn N. Jorgensen & Cheryl L. Linthicum, 2017. "Flexibility in cash-flow classification under IFRS: determinants and consequences," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 839-872, June.
    16. Stephen Taylor & Alex Tong, 2023. "How important are semi‐annual earnings announcements? An information event perspective," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 63(3), pages 3585-3607, September.
    17. Itay Kama, 2009. "On the Market Reaction to Revenue and Earnings Surprises," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(1-2), pages 31-50.
    18. Boone, Jeff P. & Khurana, Inder K. & Raman, K.K., 2022. "Accounting estimation intensity, analyst following, and earnings forecast properties," Advances in accounting, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    19. Misund, Bård & Asche, Frank & Osmundsen, Petter, 2008. "Industry upheaval and valuation: Empirical evidence from the international oil and gas industry," The International Journal of Accounting, Elsevier, vol. 43(4), pages 398-424, December.
    20. Schnaubelt, Matthias & Seifert, Oleg, 2020. "Valuation ratios, surprises, uncertainty or sentiment: How does financial machine learning predict returns from earnings announcements?," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 04/2020, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:reaccs:v:27:y:2022:i:4:d:10.1007_s11142-021-09597-6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.