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Are Analysts' Cash Flow Forecasts Naïve Extensions of Their Own Earnings Forecasts?

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  • Andrew C. Call
  • Shuping Chen
  • Yen H. Tong

Abstract

We examine the sophistication of analysts' cash flow forecasts to better understand what accrual adjustments, if any, analysts make when forecasting cash flows. As a preliminary step, we first demonstrate that prior empirical tests used to evaluate the sophistication of analysts' cash flow forecasts are not diagnostic. We then present three sets of evidence to triangulate our conclusion that analysts' cash flow forecasts incorporate meaningful accrual adjustments. First, we review a stratified random sample of 90 analyst reports and find that the majority of these analysts include explicit adjustments for working capital and other accruals in their cash flow forecasts. Second, using a large sample of analysts' cash flow forecasts from 1993–2008, we find that these forecasts outperform time†series cash flow forecasts in correctly predicting the sign and magnitude of accruals. Finally, we find a significant market reaction to analysts' cash flow forecast revisions, suggesting that investors find these revisions informative. Collectively, our findings demonstrate that analysts' cash flow forecasts are not simply naïve extensions of their own earnings forecasts, but that they reflect meaningful and useful accrual adjustments. These findings are relevant to researchers who examine analysts' cash flow forecasts in a variety of settings, and to investors and practitioners who employ these forecasts for valuation purposes.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew C. Call & Shuping Chen & Yen H. Tong, 2013. "Are Analysts' Cash Flow Forecasts Naïve Extensions of Their Own Earnings Forecasts?," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(2), pages 438-465, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:coacre:v:30:y:2013:i:2:p:438-465
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1911-3846.2012.01184.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Tanja Lorenz & Carsten Homburg, 2018. "Determinants of analysts’ revenue forecast accuracy," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 389-431, August.
    2. Shi, Linna & Zhang, Huai & Guo, Jun, 2014. "Analyst cash flow forecasts and pricing of accruals," Advances in accounting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 95-105.
    3. Elizabeth A. Gordon & Elaine Henry & Bjorn N. Jorgensen & Cheryl L. Linthicum, 2017. "Flexibility in cash-flow classification under IFRS: determinants and consequences," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 839-872, June.
    4. John R. M. Hand & Henry Laurion & Alastair Lawrence & Nicholas Martin, 2022. "Explaining firms’ earnings announcement stock returns using FactSet and I/B/E/S data feeds," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 1389-1420, December.
    5. Cao, Zhangfan & Chen, Steven Xianglong & Harakeh, Mostafa & Lee, Edward, 2022. "Do non-financial factors influence corporate dividend policies? Evidence from business strategy," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    6. Jeremiah Green & John R. M. Hand & X. Frank Zhang, 2016. "Errors and questionable judgments in analysts’ DCF models," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 596-632, June.
    7. Andrew C. Call & Max Hewitt & Jessica Watkins & Teri Lombardi Yohn, 2021. "Analysts’ annual earnings forecasts and changes to the I/B/E/S database," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 1-36, March.
    8. Qiang Cheng & Fei Du & Xin Wang & Yutao Wang, 2016. "Seeing is believing: analysts’ corporate site visits," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 1245-1286, December.
    9. Zhang, Min & Tong, Lijing & Su, Jun & Cui, Zhipeng, 2015. "Analyst coverage and corporate social performance: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 76-94.
    10. Xiaomeng Chen & Meiting Lu & Yaowen Shan & Yizhou Zhang, 2021. "Australian evidence on analysts' cash flow forecasts: issuance, accuracy and usefulness," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(1), pages 3-50, March.
    11. Johan Sulaeman & Kelsey D. Wei, 2019. "Sell-Side Analysts and Stock Mispricing: Evidence from Mutual Fund Flow-Driven Trading Pressure," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(11), pages 5427-5448, November.
    12. Hyun Min Oh & Ho young Shin, 2019. "A Study on the Relationship between Analysts’ Cash Flow Forecasts Issuance and Accounting Information: Evidence from Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-26, June.
    13. Bingxu Fang & Ole-Kristian Hope, 2021. "Analyst teams," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 425-467, June.
    14. Cheng, C.S. Agnes & Hu, Gang & Yu, Danlei Bonnie, 2022. "CAFR 1999–2021, the past two decades and a look ahead," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    15. Jiang, Xiong-Fei & Xiong, Long & Cen, Tao & Bai, Ling & Zhao, Na & Zhang, Jiu & Zheng, Chang-Juan & Jiang, Tian-Ying, 2022. "Analyst sentiment and earning forecast bias in financial markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 589(C).
    16. Shengzhong Huang & Hongping Tan & Xiongyuan Wang & Changqiu Yu, 2023. "Valuation uncertainty and analysts’ use of DCF models," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 827-861, June.
    17. Marco Maria Mattei & Petya Platikanova, 2017. "Do product market threats affect analyst forecast precision?," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 1628-1665, December.
    18. Adnan Shoaib & Muhammad A. Siddiqui, 2022. "Earning information content changes based on accrual measures and quality measures: Evidences from member countries of Asia Pacific trade agreement," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 1526-1546, January.
    19. Pervaiz Alam & Xiaoling Pu & Barry Hettler, 2018. "The sensitivity of the credit default swap market to financial analysts’ forecast revisions," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 58(3), pages 697-725, September.
    20. Sandip Dhole & Ferdinand A. Gul & Sagarika Mishra & Ananda M. Pal, 2021. "The joint information role of analysts’ cash flow and earnings forecasts," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(1), pages 499-541, March.
    21. Nugroho, Dwiyanjana Santyo & Pertiwi, Meilani Intan, 2021. "Stock Price Reaction when Covid -19 Exist: Moderating by Firm’s Operating Cash Flow," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 55(1), pages 71-85.
    22. Boone, Jeff P. & Khurana, Inder K. & Raman, K.K., 2022. "Accounting estimation intensity, analyst following, and earnings forecast properties," Advances in accounting, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).

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