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The Value of Flexible Vaccine Manufacturing Capacity: Value Drivers, Estimation Methods, and Approaches to Value Recognition in Health Technology Assessment

Author

Listed:
  • Frederick McElwee

    (Office of Health Economics
    University of Oxford)

  • Anthony Newall

    (UNSW Sydney)

Abstract

Expanding flexible vaccine manufacturing capacity (FVMC) for routine vaccines could facilitate more timely access to novel vaccines during future pandemics. Vaccine manufacturing capacity is ‘flexible’ if it is built on a technology platform that allows rapid adaption to new infectious agents. The added value of routine vaccines produced using a flexible platform for pandemic preparedness is not currently recognised in conventional health technology assessment (HTA) methods. We start by examining the current state of play of incentives for FVMC and exploring the relation between flexible and spare capacity. We then establish the key factors for estimating FVMC and draw from established frameworks to identify relevant value drivers. The role of FVMC as a countermeasure against pandemic risks is deemed an additional value attribute that should be recognised. Next, we address the gap in the vaccine-valuation literature between the conceptual understanding of the value of additional FVMC and the availability of accurate and reliable tools for its estimation to facilitate integration into HTA. Three practical approaches for estimating the value of additional FVMC are discussed: stated and revealed preference studies, macroeconomic modelling, and benefit–cost analysis. Lastly, we review how value recognition of additional FVMC can be realised within the HTA process for routine vaccines manufactured on flexible platforms. We argue that, while the value of additional FVMC is uncertain and further research is needed to help to better estimate it, the value of increased pandemic preparedness is likely to be too large to be ignored.

Suggested Citation

  • Frederick McElwee & Anthony Newall, 2024. "The Value of Flexible Vaccine Manufacturing Capacity: Value Drivers, Estimation Methods, and Approaches to Value Recognition in Health Technology Assessment," PharmacoEconomics, Springer, vol. 42(2), pages 187-197, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:pharme:v:42:y:2024:i:2:d:10.1007_s40273-024-01396-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s40273-024-01396-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. He, Hua & Pindyck, Robert S., 1992. "Investments in flexible production capacity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 16(3-4), pages 575-599.
    2. Joanna Coast & Richard Smith & Anne‐Marie Karcher & Paula Wilton & Michael Millar, 2002. "Superbugs II: how should economic evaluation be conducted for interventions which aim to contain antimicrobial resistance?," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(7), pages 637-647, October.
    3. Rachel Glennerster & Christopher M. Snyder & Brandon Joel Tan, 2023. "Calculating the Costs and Benefits of Advance Preparations for Future Pandemics," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(3), pages 611-648, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Richard Chapman & Richard Xie, 2024. "Advancing Methods to Measure and Reward Healthcare Innovation," PharmacoEconomics, Springer, vol. 42(2), pages 183-185, July.

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