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Risk assessment of earth dam overtopping and its application research

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  • Sherong Zhang
  • Yaosheng Tan

Abstract

The problem of dam safety is one of the most important research topics of water conservancy projects, and many researchers pay much attention to study the risk of earth dam overtopping. This paper synthesizes in the definition of risk the probabilities of dam failure and the corresponding losses, including the probability estimation, losses evaluation and criteria exploring risk approaches. Then, a comprehensive risk assessment system of dam flood overtopping is established, which is widely applicable. Gate failure, randomness of flood, initial water level and time-varying effects are incorporated in the failure probability model. Many complex factors are simplified in losses estimation. In addition, thresholds of various types of losses are proposed and are adapted to the national conditions. The methodology is applied to the Lianghekou hydropower station in China to illustrate the assessment process of flood overtopping risk and to evaluate its safe loophole with a view to the failure of spillway gates. Monte Carlo simulation and JC method programs are adopted to solve the model based on MATLAB tools and DELPHI. The results show that the losses pose significant impact on the risk assessment and should be considered in the assessment of risk. Probability calculation and loss estimation could be well combined with standards, providing a basis for risk management and decision-making. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Sherong Zhang & Yaosheng Tan, 2014. "Risk assessment of earth dam overtopping and its application research," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 74(2), pages 717-736, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:74:y:2014:i:2:p:717-736
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-014-1207-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michael L. DeKay & Gary H. McClelland, 1993. "Predicting Loss of Life in Cases of Dam Failure and Flash Flood," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 13(2), pages 193-205, April.
    2. Sheng-Hsueh Yang & Yii-Wen Pan & Jia-Jyun Dong & Keh-Chia Yeh & Jyh-Jong Liao, 2013. "A systematic approach for the assessment of flooding hazard and risk associated with a landslide dam," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 65(1), pages 41-62, January.
    3. Sherong Zhang & Bo Sun & Lei Yan & Chao Wang, 2013. "Risk identification on hydropower project using the IAHP and extension of TOPSIS methods under interval-valued fuzzy environment," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 65(1), pages 359-373, January.
    4. Denghua Zhong & Yuefeng Sun & Mingchao Li, 2011. "Dam break threshold value and risk probability assessment for an earth dam," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 59(1), pages 129-147, October.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Chong-Xun Mo & Gui-Yan Mo & Liu Peng & Qing Yang & Xin-Rong Zhu & Qing-Ling Jiang & Ju-Liang Jin, 2019. "Quantitative Vulnerability Model of Earth Dam Overtopping and its Application," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(5), pages 1801-1815, March.
    3. Hao Gu & Xiao Fu & Yantao Zhu & Yijun Chen & Lixian Huang, 2020. "Analysis of Social and Environmental Impact of Earth-Rock Dam Breaks Based on a Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-15, August.
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    5. Wei Ge & Zongkun Li & Wei Li & Meimei Wu & Juanjuan Li & Yipeng Pan, 2020. "Risk evaluation of dam-break environmental impacts based on the set pair analysis and cloud model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(2), pages 1641-1653, November.

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