Dam break threshold value and risk probability assessment for an earth dam

In dam safety assessment, it is customary to focus on stability analysis, and the safety factor is regarded as an assessment index that cannot correctly reflect the effect of multi-factors and variable uncertainty. The factors that induce dam breaks are complex and uncertain; however, three primary ones can be identified: hydrological factors, seepage and bank slope instability. In this paper, the risk probability and the dam break threshold value for each factor individually, as well as coupled factors, are studied. The threshold value is acquired using the relationship formula between risk probability and dam type. The Dongwushi reservoir located in the Hebei province of China is taken as a case study. The results show that the dam break threshold values for hydrological factors, seepage and bank slope instability are 2.53, 2.02 and 2.69, respectively. The integrated dam break threshold value for the coupled factors is 1.25, which indicates that the dam is under serious stress according to the established risk assessment standard. The safety factor is calculated as 1.15 using the Bishop method, which indicates that the dam is under serious stress. The results obtained by the proposed method are consistent with those of the Bishop method. Finally, the proposed theory and method are introduced into a dam safety evaluation system (DSES) for convenient and efficient dam safety management. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011