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Appraisal of the prevalence of severe tropical storms over Indian Ocean by screening the features of tropical depressions

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  • Sutapa Chaudhuri
  • Anirban Middey
  • Sayantika Goswami
  • Soumita Banerjee

Abstract

Tropical cyclones are one of the nature’s most violent manifestations and potentially the deadliest of all meteorological phenomena. It is a unique combination of violent wind, heavy rainfall, and mountainous waves in sea. The maximum sustained wind speed, minimum sea level pressure, and the radius of maximum winds are important parameters for understanding a particular tropical cyclone and to differentiate it from a depression to tropical storms. The objective of this particular paper is to identify a possible range of maximum sustained wind speed, minimum sea level pressure, and radius of maximum winds which facilitates tropical depressions to lead to tropical storms over Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea of Indian Ocean basin. The method of rough set theory which is based on condition—decision support system is implemented for the purpose. The result reveals that the threshold ranges of the maximum sustained wind speed, minimum sea level pressure and radius of maximum winds associated with tropical depression are possible that can aid in the predictability of tropical storm over Indian Ocean. The results are validated with significant tropical storms of 2009 and 2010 observations through Doppler and satellite imageries. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012

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  • Sutapa Chaudhuri & Anirban Middey & Sayantika Goswami & Soumita Banerjee, 2012. "Appraisal of the prevalence of severe tropical storms over Indian Ocean by screening the features of tropical depressions," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 61(2), pages 745-756, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:61:y:2012:i:2:p:745-756
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-011-0068-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kerry Emanuel, 2005. "Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years," Nature, Nature, vol. 436(7051), pages 686-688, August.
    2. A. Rao & S. Babu & S. Dube, 2004. "Impact of a Tropical Cyclone on Coastal Upwelling Processes," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 31(2), pages 415-435, February.
    3. Silvio Schmidt & Claudia Kemfert & Peter Höppe, 2008. "Tropical Cyclone Losses in the USA and the Impact of Climate Change: A Trend Analysis Based on a New Dataset," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 802, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    4. S. Roy Bhowmik & S. Kotal & S. Kalsi, 2007. "Operational tropical cyclone intensity prediction—an empirical technique," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 41(3), pages 447-455, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sutapa Chaudhuri & Arumita Roy Chowdhury & Payel Das, 2018. "Implementation of Sugeno: ANFIS for forecasting the seismic moment of large earthquakes over Indo-Himalayan region," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 90(1), pages 391-405, January.
    2. S. Chaudhuri & D. Basu & D. Das & S. Goswami & S. Varshney, 2017. "Swarm intelligence and neural nets in forecasting the maximum sustained wind speed along the track of tropical cyclones over Bay of Bengal," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 87(3), pages 1413-1433, July.
    3. Sutapa Chaudhuri & Sayantika Goswami & Anirban Middey, 2014. "Medium-range forecast of cyclogenesis over North Indian Ocean with multilayer perceptron model using satellite data," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 70(1), pages 173-193, January.
    4. Sutapa Chaudhuri & Jayanti Pal & Anirban Middey & Sayantika Goswami, 2013. "Nowcasting Bordoichila with a composite stability index," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 66(2), pages 591-607, March.
    5. Sutapa Chaudhuri & Debashree Dutta & Sayantika Goswami & Anirban Middey, 2013. "Intensity forecast of tropical cyclones over North Indian Ocean using multilayer perceptron model: skill and performance verification," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 65(1), pages 97-113, January.
    6. Ishita Sarkar & Jayanti Pal & Tapajyoti Chakraborty & Sutapa Chaudhuri, 2023. "Forecasting tropical cyclogenesis over ocean basins in the Northern Hemisphere," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(1), pages 293-311, May.

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