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Seismic risk assessment of transportation networks for the impending Istanbul earthquake with GIS-based MCDM approach

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  • Kadir Diler Alemdar

    (Erzurum Technical University)

Abstract

Among the physical characteristics of urban resilience, transportation networks are functional systems that form the backbone of routine operations and emergency responses. The integration and integrity of transportation networks are highly vulnerable to widespread disruptions caused by earthquakes experienced. Structural functionality disruptions caused by earthquakes are of vital importance for risk management in cities. This study is based on the Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluations (PROMETHEE) and VIseKriterijumsa Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje (VIKOR) approach, which is incorporated into a Geographic Information System (GIS) using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the performance values of the high earthquake risk road networks in Istanbul, to assess the earthquake risk of road networks in Istanbul. To determine the earthquake risk in road networks, 15 vulnerability criteria and 9 earthquake scenario criteria were included in the study. According to AHP based GIS applications, the study shows that the southeast of the European side and the east of the Asian side are the areas with the highest earthquake risk. Nine percent of Istanbul’s surface area consists of areas at high earthquake risk, and one-fifth of the roads in Istanbul have a high-risk level. According to PROMETHEE and VIKOR results, it is seen that the risk increases even more, especially in the road networks in Bakırköy, Bahçelievler and Küçükçekmece districts. This research provides a valuable theoretical framework for possible risk assessments in different areas and for providing information to decision makers due to the effectiveness of the combination of the methods used.

Suggested Citation

  • Kadir Diler Alemdar, 2025. "Seismic risk assessment of transportation networks for the impending Istanbul earthquake with GIS-based MCDM approach," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 121(9), pages 10085-10123, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:121:y:2025:i:9:d:10.1007_s11069-025-07199-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-025-07199-y
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