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Statistically scrutinizing impact of climate variability on forest fire incidents in Turkey

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  • Muberra Erdogan Karaagacli

    (Tokat Gaziosmanpasa University)

  • Kadri Yurekli

    (Tokat Gaziosmanpasa University)

  • Mehmet Murat Comert

    (Tokat Gaziosmanpasa University)

  • Nurcan Menevse

    (Tokat Gaziosmanpasa University)

Abstract

This study aimed to shed light on the extent to which the changing climate would affect the fire risk in forests in Turkey. For this purpose, statistical approaches and indices were applied to some climate parameters in 39 provinces with forest presence. A statistically significant increasing trend according to Şen approaches, named ITA and IPTA, was detected in the temperature datasets of almost all provinces between May and October, which was referred to as the “forest fire period” in Turkey. The annual Lang index showed that there was a tendency towards desertification and aridification in the provinces. The monthly Lang index also pointed out semi-arid and arid climates from May to September in almost all provinces. The Ångström index classifying fire risk showed the probability of fire increasing between June and September for many provinces. These findings draw attention to the impact of climate change on possible forest fires in Turkey.

Suggested Citation

  • Muberra Erdogan Karaagacli & Kadri Yurekli & Mehmet Murat Comert & Nurcan Menevse, 2025. "Statistically scrutinizing impact of climate variability on forest fire incidents in Turkey," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 121(9), pages 10323-10353, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:121:y:2025:i:9:d:10.1007_s11069-025-07190-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-025-07190-7
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    1. Oguz Simsek & Halil İbrahim Şenol & Ali Demir Keskiner, 2025. "Examination of area-based trend and drought characteristics of drought classes in the context of climate change," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 121(13), pages 15707-15732, July.

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