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Examination of area-based trend and drought characteristics of drought classes in the context of climate change

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  • Oguz Simsek

    (Harran University)

  • Halil İbrahim Şenol

    (Harran University)

  • Ali Demir Keskiner

    (Harran University)

Abstract

In this study, the meteorological drought of the Mediterranean region, which represents the most significant risk area in Turkey regarding drought and forms the southern border, was evaluated using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) method with precipitation data measured at 28 stations between 1970 and 2022. The data are divided into different periods: the first period (FP) between 1970 and 1996, the second period (SP) between 1997 and 2022, and all period (AP) between 1970 and 2022 to assess the change in meteorological drought in the region from the past to the present. Applying the run theory to the SPI series obtained in these periods, duration, severity, intensity, and peak values are calculated for wet and dry conditions. The Mann-Kendall (MK), Spearman-Rho (SR), and Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) methods are applied to ascertain the change in the spatial occurrence of drought classes. The study reveals that drought exhibits distinct characteristics and occurrence rates in different regions of the study area, with notable differences between the western and eastern regions. The study region exhibits considerable variability in average duration and severity. The results indicated that extreme and severe drought-wet conditions have increased again after a 30-year interval. Furthermore, it is determined that the region is experiencing significant shifts in extreme wet and dry conditions and extreme events related to flooding and drought.

Suggested Citation

  • Oguz Simsek & Halil İbrahim Şenol & Ali Demir Keskiner, 2025. "Examination of area-based trend and drought characteristics of drought classes in the context of climate change," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 121(13), pages 15707-15732, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:121:y:2025:i:13:d:10.1007_s11069-025-07412-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-025-07412-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Muberra Erdogan Karaagacli & Kadri Yurekli & Mehmet Murat Comert & Nurcan Menevse, 2025. "Statistically scrutinizing impact of climate variability on forest fire incidents in Turkey," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 121(9), pages 10323-10353, May.
    2. Varsha Pandey & Prashant K Srivastava & Sudhir K Singh & George P. Petropoulos & Rajesh Kumar Mall, 2021. "Drought Identification and Trend Analysis Using Long-Term CHIRPS Satellite Precipitation Product in Bundelkhand, India," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-19, January.
    3. Stavros Sakellariou & Marios Spiliotopoulos & Nikolaos Alpanakis & Ioannis Faraslis & Pantelis Sidiropoulos & Georgios A. Tziatzios & George Karoutsos & Nicolas R. Dalezios & Nicholas Dercas, 2024. "Spatiotemporal Drought Assessment Based on Gridded Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) in Vulnerable Agroecosystems," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-16, February.
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