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Development of an R-CLIPER model using GSMaP and TRMM precipitation data for tropical cyclones affecting Vietnam

Author

Listed:
  • Hang Nguyen Thu

    (National Center for Hydrometeorological Forecasting)

  • Nga Pham Thi Thanh

    (Viet Nam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Climate Change)

  • Hang Vu Thanh

    (VNU Hanoi University of Science)

  • Ha Pham Thanh

    (VNU Hanoi University of Science)

  • Long Trinh Tuan

    (VNU Hanoi University of Science)

  • The Doan Thi

    (Viet Nam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Climate Change)

  • Thuc Tran Duy

    (Viet Nam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Climate Change)

  • Hao Nguyen Thi Phuong

    (Vietnam National Space Center, Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology)

Abstract

Tropical cyclone (TC)-induced rainfall is one of the most extreme rain phenomena, usually resulting in severe flooding and inundation when a TC makes landfall and is still considered the biggest challenge for TC forecasting. This study focuses on developing a R-CLIPER (Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Climatology and Persistence) model for TC-induced rainfall forecasting over the Vietnam region using precipitation data from GSMaP (Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation) and TRMM (The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission). We used the best track data for 199 TCs affecting the Vietnam region during the period 2000–2021, obtained from the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) Tokyo Typhoon Center. The performance of the established R-CLIPER models for TC rainfall forecasting was assessed under different circumstances by categorizing the rain thresholds and TC intensities. The evaluations are conducted by comparing the 24-hour R-CLIPER model’s rainfall forecast against satellite-estimated and surface-observed rains, indicating a reasonable prediction of two model versions, namely, the R-GSMaP and R-TRMM models, with slight outperformance of the R-GSMaP over the R-TRMM model. In detailed analyses of three case studies, we found that the results of predicted TC-induced rainfall largely vary depending on both weather conditions and TC tracks. In addition, using the developed R-CLIPER model as a baseline, we evaluate the performances of three global NWP models in TC-induced rainfall prediction by calculating a percentage of improvement in the statistical scores over those of the R-CLIPER model. The results revealed the greatest improvement in the forecast by the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) model.

Suggested Citation

  • Hang Nguyen Thu & Nga Pham Thi Thanh & Hang Vu Thanh & Ha Pham Thanh & Long Trinh Tuan & The Doan Thi & Thuc Tran Duy & Hao Nguyen Thi Phuong, 2025. "Development of an R-CLIPER model using GSMaP and TRMM precipitation data for tropical cyclones affecting Vietnam," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 121(2), pages 1241-1263, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:121:y:2025:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-024-06828-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-024-06828-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nga Thi Thanh Pham & Quang Hong Nguyen & Anh Duc Ngo & Hang Thi Thu Le & Cong Tien Nguyen, 2018. "Investigating the impacts of typhoon-induced floods on the agriculture in the central region of Vietnam by using hydrological models and satellite data," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 92(1), pages 189-204, May.
    2. Nicole Cornell Sadowski & Daniel Sutter, 2005. "Hurricane Fatalities and Hurricane Damages: Are Safer Hurricanes More Damaging?," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 72(2), pages 422-432, October.
    3. Nicole Cornell Sadowski & Daniel Sutter, 2005. "Hurricane Fatalities and Hurricane Damages: Are Safer Hurricanes More Damaging?," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 72(2), pages 422-432, October.
    4. Nicole Cornell Sadowski & Daniel Sutter, 2005. "Hurricane Fatalities and Hurricane Damages: Are Safer Hurricanes More Damaging?," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 72(2), pages 422-432, October.
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