IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v121y2025i1d10.1007_s11069-024-06810-y.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Integrated risk mapping for forest fire management using the analytical hierarchy process and ordered weighted average: a case study in southern Turkey

Author

Listed:
  • Zühal Özcan

    (Istanbul Technical University)

  • İnci Caglayan

    (Istanbul University-Cerrahpaşa)

  • Özgür Kabak

    (Istanbul Technical University)

  • Fatmagül Kılıç Gül

    (Yıldız Technical University)

Abstract

Forest fires pose a critical problem for natural environments and human settlements, necessitating effective risk management approaches. This study focuses on forest fire risk (FFR) mapping in the Antalya Forest, southern Turkey, by analyzing different criteria. Extensive literature research identifies nearly twenty criteria, which we re-evaluate based on expert opinions and study area characteristics, leading to the selection of four main criteria and fourteen sub-criteria. We process the data using Geographic Information System (GIS) software and calculate weights using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Ordered Weighted Average (OWA) techniques. The main criteria are topographic, meteorological, land use, and forest structure. In the AHP sub-criteria, precipitation, tree species, distance to settlement areas, and elevation receive high values. We classify the resultant FFR maps into five risk classes using both the Jenks Natural Breaks method and equal interval classification. We evaluate the accuracy of our maps using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis and Area Under Curve (AUC) values, based on historical forest fire data. The equal interval classification shows decreased alignment with historical fire data, especially for the AHP method, which performs significantly worse. Both OWA and AHP methods show better performance with Jenks classification compared to equal interval classification, indicating that Jenks Natural Breaks more effectively captures natural groupings in the data, making it a more suitable choice for risk mapping. Applying AHP and OWA in FFR mapping benefits regional forest management and highlights the universal applicability of these methodologies for broader environmental hazard assessments under changing climates.

Suggested Citation

  • Zühal Özcan & İnci Caglayan & Özgür Kabak & Fatmagül Kılıç Gül, 2025. "Integrated risk mapping for forest fire management using the analytical hierarchy process and ordered weighted average: a case study in southern Turkey," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 121(1), pages 959-1001, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:121:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-024-06810-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-024-06810-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-024-06810-y
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-024-06810-y?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Narissara Nuthammachot & Dimitris Stratoulias, 2021. "Multi-criteria decision analysis for forest fire risk assessment by coupling AHP and GIS: method and case study," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(12), pages 17443-17458, December.
    2. Hassan Faramarzi & Seyd Mohsen Hosseini & Hamid Reza Pourghasemi & Mahdi Farnaghi, 2021. "Forest fire spatial modelling using ordered weighted averaging multi-criteria evaluation," Journal of Forest Science, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 67(2), pages 87-100.
    3. Rafaello Bergonse & Sandra Oliveira & Ana Gonçalves & Sílvia Nunes & Carlos Câmara & José Luis Zêzere, 2021. "A combined structural and seasonal approach to assess wildfire susceptibility and hazard in summertime," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 106(3), pages 2545-2573, April.
    4. Jocy Ana Paixão Sousa & Elfany Reis Nascimento Lopes & Miqueias Lima Duarte & Henrique Ewbank & Roberto Wagner Lourenço, 2022. "Forest fire risk indicator (FFRI) based on geoprocessing and multicriteria analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 114(2), pages 2311-2330, November.
    5. Deniz Arca & Mercan Hacısalihoğlu & Ş. Hakan Kutoğlu, 2020. "Producing forest fire susceptibility map via multi-criteria decision analysis and frequency ratio methods," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(1), pages 73-89, October.
    6. Ossadnik, Wolfgang & Lange, Oliver, 1999. "AHP-based evaluation of AHP-Software," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 118(3), pages 578-588, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hongrui Wen & Qiaozhen Guo & Yuhuai Zeng & Zepeng Wu & Zhenhui Sun, 2022. "Study on forest fire risk in Conghua district of Guangzhou city based on multi-source data," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 114(3), pages 3163-3183, December.
    2. Kevin Kam Fung Yuen, 2022. "Decision models for information systems planning using primitive cognitive network process: comparisons with analytic hierarchy process," Operational Research, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 1759-1785, July.
    3. Cheng-Ru Wu & Che-Wei Chang & Hung-Lung Lin, 2008. "FAHP Sensitivity Analysis for Measurement Nonprofit Organizational Performance," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 283-302, June.
    4. Guohua Chen & Qin Yang & Xuexi Chen & Kongxing Huang & Tao Zeng & Zhi Yuan, 2021. "Methodology of Urban Safety and Security Assessment Based on the Overall Risk Management Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-26, June.
    5. Mohsen Alawi & Dongzhu Chu & Seba Hammad, 2023. "Resilience of Public Open Spaces to Earthquakes: A Case Study of Chongqing, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-20, January.
    6. Laraib Ahmad & Sameer Saran, 2024. "Anthropogenic evidences as precursors to forest fire trigger in Western Himalayan Region," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(7), pages 16827-16846, July.
    7. Hazem Ghassan Abdo & Hussein Almohamad & Ahmed Abdullah Al Dughairi & Motirh Al-Mutiry, 2022. "GIS-Based Frequency Ratio and Analytic Hierarchy Process for Forest Fire Susceptibility Mapping in the Western Region of Syria," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-20, April.
    8. Elena Kostenko & Volodymyr Kuznichenko & Volodymyr Lapshyn, 2014. "Comparison of Decision-Making Methods Comparison of Decision-Making Methods," Research in Applied Economics, Macrothink Institute, vol. 6(3), pages 17-27, September.
    9. Prija Djatmika & Prischa Listiningrum & Theresia B. Sumarno & Dararida F. Mahira & Corinthias P. M. Sianipar, 2023. "Just Transition in Biofuel Development towards Low-Carbon Economy: Multi-Actor Perspectives on Policies and Practices in Indonesia," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(1), pages 1-29, December.
    10. Mengxin Bai & Wupeng Du & Maowei Wu & Chengpeng Zhang & Pei Xing & Zhixin Hao, 2024. "Variation in fire danger in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region over the past 30 years and its linkage with atmospheric circulation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(2), pages 1-22, February.
    11. Shi-yi Li & Xin Li & Fu-qiang Yang & Fan-liang Ge, 2024. "Etiological study on forest fire accidents using Bow-tie model and Bayesian network," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 120(13), pages 12427-12449, October.
    12. Mohsen Alawi & Dongzhu Chu, 2025. "Assessing and enhancing public space resilience to pandemics and earthquakes: a case study of Chongqing, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 121(2), pages 2023-2052, January.
    13. Özer Akyürek, 2023. "Spatial and temporal analysis of vegetation fires in Europe," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(1), pages 1105-1124, May.
    14. Vaidya, Omkarprasad S. & Kumar, Sushil, 2006. "Analytic hierarchy process: An overview of applications," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 169(1), pages 1-29, February.
    15. Molintas, Dominique Trual, 2013. "Impact of Globalisation on the British consumer motivations towards luxury commodities: Generation Y in focus," MPRA Paper 98878, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Yixin Zou & Chao Zhao & Peter Childs & Ding-Bang Luh, 2024. "Cross-cultural design in costume: case study on totemic symbols of China and Thailand," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-18, December.
    17. Rauch, Peter, 2017. "Developing and evaluating strategies to overcome biomass supply risks," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 561-569.
    18. Carnero, MaCarmen, 2006. "An evaluation system of the setting up of predictive maintenance programmes," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 91(8), pages 945-963.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forest fire; Risk mapping; GIS; AHP; OWA; MCDM;
    All these keywords.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:121:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-024-06810-y. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.