IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v120y2024i8d10.1007_s11069-024-06542-z.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Fire-danger modeling and mapping in natural ecosystems of northeastern Iran: application of physiographic, vegetative, climatic and human-made indicators

Author

Listed:
  • Saeedeh Eskandari

    (Research Institute of Forests and Rangelands)

  • Nadia Kamali

    (Research Institute of Forests and Rangelands)

  • Ahmad Sadeghipour

    (Semnan University)

  • Reza Siahmansour

    (Natural Resources Division, Lorestan Agricultural and Natural Resources Research and Education Center, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO))

  • John P. Tiefenbacher

    (Texas State University)

Abstract

Fire frequencies have increased in the natural ecosystems of northeastern Iran because of natural and human factors in the recent years. This study models and maps the danger of fire in natural ecosystems in Northern Khorasan Province in northeastern Iran. First, the hierarchical structure of the main fire-influencing factors (physiographic, climatic, vegetative, and human-made factors) and their sub-factors was determined. The data describing these effective factors were acquired from different sources (satellite images, field survey, etc.) and were converted into the maps in raster format (30 m by 30 m pixel size) in the GIS. A map of past fires in the province was developed from data of the Northern Khorasan Natural Resources Administration and from the fire product of the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) sensor. The weights of each of the factors and sub-factors were determined using FAHP (Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process). A fire-danger map was obtained by overlapping all effective-factor maps in the GIS. The raster values were categorized into five fire-danger classes. The results were validated by comparison to the past fires using OA (Overall Accuracy), and kappa index. Results demonstrated that the human-influence factor, with weight of 0.48, is the most effective variable in fire-danger modeling in the Northern Khorasan Province. The fire-danger map indicated that very high-danger and high-danger areas cover 54.65% of the province, a spatially extensive amount of land having high fire likelihood. In statistical terms, the accuracy of fire danger map was high with OA of 96%, and the kappa index of 0.85, reflects the high accuracy of fire-danger prediction in the study area. The fire danger map of the study area provides a baseline for informed fire management, mitigation, and prevention decisions in the natural ecosystems of Northern Khorasan Province. This map could be very useful for forecasting future fires in northeastern Iran.

Suggested Citation

  • Saeedeh Eskandari & Nadia Kamali & Ahmad Sadeghipour & Reza Siahmansour & John P. Tiefenbacher, 2024. "Fire-danger modeling and mapping in natural ecosystems of northeastern Iran: application of physiographic, vegetative, climatic and human-made indicators," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 120(8), pages 8025-8056, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:120:y:2024:i:8:d:10.1007_s11069-024-06542-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-024-06542-z
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-024-06542-z
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-024-06542-z?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chang, Da-Yong, 1996. "Applications of the extent analysis method on fuzzy AHP," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 95(3), pages 649-655, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Benyou Jia & Slobodan P. Simonovic & Pingan Zhong & Zhongbo Yu, 2016. "A Multi-Objective Best Compromise Decision Model for Real-Time Flood Mitigation Operations of Multi-Reservoir System," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(10), pages 3363-3387, August.
    2. Pasura Aungkulanon & Walailak Atthirawong & Pongchanun Luangpaiboon & Wirachchaya Chanpuypetch, 2024. "Navigating Supply Chain Resilience: A Hybrid Approach to Agri-Food Supplier Selection," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-42, May.
    3. Juan Carlos Martín & Veronika Rudchenko & María-Victoria Sánchez-Rebull, 2020. "The Role of Nationality and Hotel Class on Guests’ Satisfaction. A Fuzzy-TOPSIS Approach Applied in Saint Petersburg," Administrative Sciences, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-24, September.
    4. Sajid Ali & Sang-Moon Lee & Choon-Man Jang, 2017. "Determination of the Most Optimal On-Shore Wind Farm Site Location Using a GIS-MCDM Methodology: Evaluating the Case of South Korea," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-22, December.
    5. Choudhary, Devendra & Shankar, Ravi, 2012. "An STEEP-fuzzy AHP-TOPSIS framework for evaluation and selection of thermal power plant location: A case study from India," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 510-521.
    6. Lupo, Toni, 2015. "Fuzzy ServPerf model combined with ELECTRE III to comparatively evaluate service quality of international airports in Sicily," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 249-259.
    7. He-Yau Kang & Amy H. I. Lee & Tzu-Ting Huang, 2016. "Project Management for a Wind Turbine Construction by Applying Fuzzy Multiple Objective Linear Programming Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-15, December.
    8. Noori, Amir & Bonakdari, Hossein & Salimi, Amir Hossein & Gharabaghi, Bahram, 2021. "A group Multi-Criteria Decision-Making method for water supply choice optimization," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    9. Bojan Srdjevic & Yvonilde Medeiros, 2008. "Fuzzy AHP Assessment of Water Management Plans," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 22(7), pages 877-894, July.
    10. Wang, Ying-Ming & Luo, Ying & Hua, Zhongsheng, 2008. "On the extent analysis method for fuzzy AHP and its applications," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 186(2), pages 735-747, April.
    11. repec:osf:osfxxx:3cg8j_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Nitidetch Koohathongsumrit & Pongchanun Luangpaiboon, 2022. "An integrated FAHP–ZODP approach for strategic marketing information system project selection," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 1792-1809, September.
    13. Deng, Yanfei & Xu, Jiuping & Liu, Ying & Mancl, Karen, 2014. "Biogas as a sustainable energy source in China: Regional development strategy application and decision making," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 294-303.
    14. Xin, Li & Xi, Chen & Sagir, Mujgan & Wenbo, Zhang, 2023. "How can infectious medical waste be forecasted and transported during the COVID-19 pandemic? A hybrid two-stage method," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    15. Waseem Alam & Haiyan Wang & Amjad Pervez & Muhammad Safdar & Arshad Jamal & Meshal Almoshaogeh & Hassan M. Al-Ahmadi, 2024. "Analysis and Prediction of Risky Driving Behaviors Using Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process and Machine Learning Techniques," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(11), pages 1-27, May.
    16. Rovick Tarife & Yosuke Nakanishi & Yicheng Zhou & Noel Estoperez & Anacita Tahud, 2023. "Integrated GIS and Fuzzy-AHP Framework for Suitability Analysis of Hybrid Renewable Energy Systems: A Case in Southern Philippines," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-25, January.
    17. Adiprasetyo, Teguh & Suhartoyo, Hery & Firdaus, Arief, 2017. "Developing Strategy for Advancing Organic Agriculture as Sustainable Agricultural Practice," INA-Rxiv wb37h, Center for Open Science.
    18. Aleksandar Aleksić & Danijela Tadić, 2023. "Industrial and Management Applications of Type-2 Multi-Attribute Decision-Making Techniques Extended with Type-2 Fuzzy Sets from 2013 to 2022," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-24, May.
    19. Puppala, Harish & Peddinti, Pranav R.T. & Tamvada, Jagannadha Pawan & Ahuja, Jaya & Kim, Byungmin, 2023. "Barriers to the adoption of new technologies in rural areas: The case of unmanned aerial vehicles for precision agriculture in India," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    20. Hsin-Chieh Wu & Toly Chen & Chin-Hau Huang, 2020. "A Piecewise Linear FGM Approach for Efficient and Accurate FAHP Analysis: Smart Backpack Design as an Example," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(8), pages 1-18, August.
    21. Kamoonpuri, Sana Zehra & Sengar, Anita, 2023. "Hi, May AI help you? An analysis of the barriers impeding the implementation and use of artificial intelligence-enabled virtual assistants in retail," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:120:y:2024:i:8:d:10.1007_s11069-024-06542-z. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.