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Compounding effects of changing sea level and rainfall regimes on pluvial flooding in New York City

Author

Listed:
  • Mahshid Ghanbari

    (Colorado State University)

  • Tyler Dell

    (City of Longmont)

  • Firas Saleh

    (Moody’s RMS)

  • Ziyu Chen

    (Stevens Institute of Technology)

  • Jennifer Cherrier

    (CUNY-Brooklyn College
    CUNY-Graduate Center, Earth and Environmental Sciences)

  • Brian Colle

    (Stony Brook University)

  • Joshua Hacker

    (Jupiter)

  • Luke Madaus

    (Jupiter)

  • Philip Orton

    (Stevens Institute of Technology)

  • Mazdak Arabi

    (Colorado State University)

Abstract

Coastal urban areas like New York City (NYC) are more vulnerable to urban pluvial flooding particularly because the rapid runoff from extreme rainfall events can be further compounded by the co-occurrence of high sea-level conditions either from tide or storm surge leading to compound flooding events. Present-day urban pluvial flooding is a significant challenge for NYC and this challenge is expected to become more severe with the greater frequency and intensity of storms and sea-level rise (SLR) in the future. In this study, we advance NYC’s assessment of present and future exposure to urban pluvial flooding through simulating various storm scenarios using a citywide hydrologic and hydraulic model. This is the first citywide analysis using NYC’s drainage models focusing on rainfall-induced flooding. We showed that the city’s stormwater system is highly vulnerable to high-intensity short-duration “cloudburst” events, with the extent and volume of flooding being the largest during these events. We further showed that rainfall events coupled with higher sea-level conditions, either from SLR or storm surge, could significantly increase the volume and extent of flooding in the city. We also assessed flood exposure in terms of the number of buildings and length of roads exposed to flooding as well as the number of the affected population. This study informs NYC’s residents of their current and future flood risk and enables the development of tailored solutions to manage increasing flood risk in the city.

Suggested Citation

  • Mahshid Ghanbari & Tyler Dell & Firas Saleh & Ziyu Chen & Jennifer Cherrier & Brian Colle & Joshua Hacker & Luke Madaus & Philip Orton & Mazdak Arabi, 2024. "Compounding effects of changing sea level and rainfall regimes on pluvial flooding in New York City," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 120(7), pages 6377-6400, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:120:y:2024:i:7:d:10.1007_s11069-024-06466-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-024-06466-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yaella Depietri & Timon McPhearson, 2018. "Changing urban risk: 140 years of climatic hazards in New York City," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 148(1), pages 95-108, May.
    2. Stephane Hallegatte & Colin Green & Robert J. Nicholls & Jan Corfee-Morlot, 2013. "Future flood losses in major coastal cities," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(9), pages 802-806, September.
    3. Robin Bloch & Abhas K. Jha & Jessica Lamond, 2012. "Cities and Flooding : A Guide to Integrated Urban Flood Risk Management for the 21st Century [Ciudades e Inundaciones : guía para la gestión integrada del riesgo de inundaciones en ciudades en el S," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2241, August.
    4. Thomas Wahl & Shaleen Jain & Jens Bender & Steven D. Meyers & Mark E. Luther, 2015. "Increasing risk of compound flooding from storm surge and rainfall for major US cities," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(12), pages 1093-1097, December.
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