IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/josatr/v10y2025i1d10.1186_s41072-025-00205-3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

LNG vessels transits through Suez Canal under the changing geopolitical context

Author

Listed:
  • Dionysios Polemis

    (University of Piraeus)

  • Christos Bentsos

    (University of Piraeus)

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to investigate the impact of geopolitical events to the LNG transits through the Suez Canal. This paper examines the effects of the Russian invasion to Ukraine, and the following EU measures referring to energy independence from Russia, as well as the tensions in the Middle East. We have identified that the Russian invasion to Ukraine and the Houthi’s attacks on commercial vessels, affected the seaborne trade of LNG. In the first case we observe increase in the LNG transits via Suez, while in the second case an opposite effect is observed. Our results reveals that the impacts of both cases became obvious 7 weeks following the initial events. It should be highlighted that the Houthi’s attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea had greater magnitude in absolute terms, compared to the Russian invasion. Our study is useful for several LNG suppliers and deliveries both in Europe and Asia who utilize the Suez Canal.

Suggested Citation

  • Dionysios Polemis & Christos Bentsos, 2025. "LNG vessels transits through Suez Canal under the changing geopolitical context," Journal of Shipping and Trade, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 1-21, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:josatr:v:10:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1186_s41072-025-00205-3
    DOI: 10.1186/s41072-025-00205-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1186/s41072-025-00205-3
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1186/s41072-025-00205-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dittmann, Ingolf & Granger, Clive W. J., 2002. "Properties of nonlinear transformations of fractionally integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 113-133, October.
    2. Vineeta Kumari & Rima Assaf & Faten Moussa & Dharen Kumar Pandey, 2023. "Impacts of climate pact on global oil and gas sector stocks," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 41(3), pages 596-618, July.
    3. Feyrer, James, 2021. "Distance, trade, and income — The 1967 to 1975 closing of the Suez canal as a natural experiment," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    4. Bhardwaj, Geetesh & Swanson, Norman R., 2006. "An empirical investigation of the usefulness of ARFIMA models for predicting macroeconomic and financial time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 539-578.
    5. César Ducruet & Céline Rozenblat & Faraz Zaidi, 2010. "Ports in multi-level maritime networks : Evidence from the Atlantic (1996-2006)," Post-Print hal-03247133, HAL.
    6. Marco G.D. Guidi & Alexander Russell & Heather Tarbert, 2006. "The effect of OPEC policy decisions on oil and stock prices," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 30(1), pages 1-18, March.
    7. Dennis W. Draper, 1984. "The behavior of event‐related returns on oil futures contracts," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(2), pages 125-132, June.
    8. Dittmann, Ingolf & Granger, Clive W.J., 2000. "Properties of Nonlinear Transformations of Fractionally Integrated Processes," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt0kk9x0mc, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    9. Brown, Stephen J. & Warner, Jerold B., 1980. "Measuring security price performance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 205-258, September.
    10. Amine Loutia & Constantin Mellios & Kostas Andriosopoulos, 2016. "Do OPEC announcements influence oil prices?," Post-Print hal-03968824, HAL.
    11. Loutia, Amine & Mellios, Constantin & Andriosopoulos, Kostas, 2016. "Do OPEC announcements influence oil prices?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 262-272.
    12. A. Craig MacKinlay, 1997. "Event Studies in Economics and Finance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(1), pages 13-39, March.
    13. Binder, John J, 1998. "The Event Study Methodology since 1969," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 111-137, September.
    14. Yue Liu & Hao Dong & Pierre Failler, 2019. "The Oil Market Reactions to OPEC’s Announcements," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-15, August.
    15. Ducruet, César & Rozenblat, Céline & Zaidi, Faraz, 2010. "Ports in multi-level maritime networks: evidence from the Atlantic (1996–2006)," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 508-518.
    16. Di Wu & Nuo Wang & Anqi Yu & Nuan Wu, 2019. "Vulnerability analysis of global container shipping liner network based on main channel disruption," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(4), pages 394-409, May.
    17. Demirer, RIza & Kutan, Ali M., 2010. "The behavior of crude oil spot and futures prices around OPEC and SPR announcements: An event study perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1467-1476, November.
    18. C. W. J. Granger & Roselyne Joyeux, 1980. "An Introduction To Long‐Memory Time Series Models And Fractional Differencing," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, January.
    19. Hauser, Michael A & Kunst, Robert M, 2001. "Forecasting High-Frequency Financial Data with the ARFIMA-ARCH Model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(7), pages 501-518, November.
    20. Lin, Sharon Xiaowen & Tamvakis, Michael, 2010. "OPEC announcements and their effects on crude oil prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 1010-1016, February.
    21. Michail Nektarios A. & Melas Konstantinos D., 2022. "Geopolitical Risk and the LNG-LPG Trade," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 28(3), pages 243-265, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Spencer, Simon & Bredin, Don, 2019. "Agreement matters: OPEC announcement effects on WTI term structure," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 589-609.
    2. Celso Brunetti & Marc Joëts & Valérie Mignon, 2023. "Reasons Behind Words: OPEC Narratives and the Oil Market," Working Papers 2023-19, CEPII research center.
    3. Shioji, Etsuro, 2021. "Pass-through of oil supply shocks to domestic gasoline prices: evidence from daily data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    4. Ji, Qiang & Guo, Jian-Feng, 2015. "Oil price volatility and oil-related events: An Internet concern study perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 256-264.
    5. Loutia, Amine & Mellios, Constantin & Andriosopoulos, Kostas, 2016. "Do OPEC announcements influence oil prices?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 262-272.
    6. Berk, Istemi & Rauch, Jannes, 2016. "Regulatory interventions in the US oil and gas sector: How do the stock markets perceive the CFTC's announcements during the 2008 financial crisis?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 337-348.
    7. Fan, Ying & Jia, Jun-Jun & Wang, Xin & Xu, Jin-Hua, 2017. "What policy adjustments in the EU ETS truly affected the carbon prices?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 145-164.
    8. Rangan Gupta & Chi Keung Marco Lau & Seong-Min Yoon, 2019. "OPEC News Announcement Effect on Volatility in the Crude Oil Market: A Reconsideration," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 23(4), pages 1-23, December.
    9. Antonio Fernandois & Carlos A. Medel, 2020. "Geopolitical tensions, OPEC news, and the oil price: A granger causality analysis," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 35(2), pages 57-90, October.
    10. Kökény, László & Kelemen, Hunor, 2025. "A háborús szankciós bejelentések hatásai a nyersolajárfolyamokra [The impact of sanction announcements on the prices of various crude oils in the shadow of war]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(1), pages 20-49.
    11. Yue Liu & Hao Dong & Pierre Failler, 2019. "The Oil Market Reactions to OPEC’s Announcements," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-15, August.
    12. Shen, Yiran & Sun, Xiaolei & Ji, Qiang & Zhang, Dayong, 2023. "Climate events matter in the global natural gas market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    13. Diego R. Känzig, 2021. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Supply News: Evidence from OPEC Announcements," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(4), pages 1092-1125, April.
    14. James Ming Chen & Mobeen Ur Rehman, 2021. "A Pattern New in Every Moment: The Temporal Clustering of Markets for Crude Oil, Refined Fuels, and Other Commodities," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-58, September.
    15. Bhardwaj, Geetesh & Swanson, Norman R., 2006. "An empirical investigation of the usefulness of ARFIMA models for predicting macroeconomic and financial time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 539-578.
    16. Li, Zhenghui & Chen, Liming & Dong, Hao, 2021. "What are bitcoin market reactions to its-related events?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 1-10.
    17. Celso Brunetti, Bahattin Buyuksahin, Michel A. Robe, and Kirsten R. Soneson, 2013. "OPEC "Fair Price" Pronouncements and the Market Price of Crude Oil," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).
    18. Dominique Guegan, 2005. "How can we Define the Concept of Long Memory? An Econometric Survey," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(2), pages 113-149.
    19. Ma, Richie Ruchuan & Xiong, Tao & Bao, Yukun, 2021. "The Russia-Saudi Arabia oil price war during the COVID-19 pandemic," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    20. Sanae Ait Jillali & Mohammed Belkasseh, 2023. "IPOs performance evaluation: Which methodology to opt for?," Post-Print halshs-04322482, HAL.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:josatr:v:10:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1186_s41072-025-00205-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.