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The Short-Term Effects of COVID-19 on the Manufacturing Industry in Colombia: Unveiling Insights through a Natural and Exogenous Experiment

Author

Listed:
  • Carlos David Cardona Arenas

    (Universidad de Manizales
    Universidad de Manizales)

  • Daniel Osorio Barreto

    (Universidad Nacional de Colombia sede Manizales
    Universidad Autónoma de Manizales
    Entrepreneurship Research Group, Universidad Autónoma de Manizales)

  • Diego Manrique Cabezas

    (Universidad Católica Luis Amigo)

Abstract

This study analyzes the economic impact caused by the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, characterized by the confinement in the second and third quarters of 2020, on the Colombian manufacturing industry. It implemented a Difference-in-Difference (Dif-in-Dif) set-up model design; in this case, it measures the impacts of the industrial production index on the Colombian manufacturing industry, employment, manufacturing exports, and imports, considering the COVID-19 crisis as a random natural experiment. For this, the Dif-in-Dif methodology was used for time series data and variables to describe the behavior progress of COVID-19 in Colombia. The results show that the COVID-19 pandemic has had a statistically significant impact on the industrial manufacturing production index, the number of employed individuals in the manufacturing sector, and the manufacturing of imports, which signifies a negative impact concerning the number of individuals who tested positive for COVID-19 and the number of deaths and recoveries.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos David Cardona Arenas & Daniel Osorio Barreto & Diego Manrique Cabezas, 2025. "The Short-Term Effects of COVID-19 on the Manufacturing Industry in Colombia: Unveiling Insights through a Natural and Exogenous Experiment," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 16(1), pages 691-712, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jknowl:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1007_s13132-024-01927-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s13132-024-01927-8
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