IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/jknowl/v16y2025i1d10.1007_s13132-024-01927-8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Short-Term Effects of COVID-19 on the Manufacturing Industry in Colombia: Unveiling Insights through a Natural and Exogenous Experiment

Author

Listed:
  • Carlos David Cardona Arenas

    (Universidad de Manizales
    Universidad de Manizales)

  • Daniel Osorio Barreto

    (Universidad Nacional de Colombia sede Manizales
    Universidad Autónoma de Manizales
    Entrepreneurship Research Group, Universidad Autónoma de Manizales)

  • Diego Manrique Cabezas

    (Universidad Católica Luis Amigo)

Abstract

This study analyzes the economic impact caused by the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, characterized by the confinement in the second and third quarters of 2020, on the Colombian manufacturing industry. It implemented a Difference-in-Difference (Dif-in-Dif) set-up model design; in this case, it measures the impacts of the industrial production index on the Colombian manufacturing industry, employment, manufacturing exports, and imports, considering the COVID-19 crisis as a random natural experiment. For this, the Dif-in-Dif methodology was used for time series data and variables to describe the behavior progress of COVID-19 in Colombia. The results show that the COVID-19 pandemic has had a statistically significant impact on the industrial manufacturing production index, the number of employed individuals in the manufacturing sector, and the manufacturing of imports, which signifies a negative impact concerning the number of individuals who tested positive for COVID-19 and the number of deaths and recoveries.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos David Cardona Arenas & Daniel Osorio Barreto & Diego Manrique Cabezas, 2025. "The Short-Term Effects of COVID-19 on the Manufacturing Industry in Colombia: Unveiling Insights through a Natural and Exogenous Experiment," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 16(1), pages 691-712, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jknowl:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1007_s13132-024-01927-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s13132-024-01927-8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s13132-024-01927-8
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s13132-024-01927-8?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ashraf, Badar Nadeem & Goodell, John W., 2022. "COVID-19 social distancing measures and economic growth: Distinguishing short- and long-term effects," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
    2. Ando, Mitsuyo & Hayakawa, Kazunobu, 2022. "Impact of COVID-19 on trade in services," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    3. Paul Flatau & Philip E. T. Lewis & Allison Rushton, 1991. "The Macroeconomic Consequences of Long‐Term Unemployment," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 24(4), pages 48-56, October.
    4. Goodman-Bacon, Andrew & Marcus, Jan, 2020. "Using Difference-in-Differences to Identify Causal Effects of COVID-19 Policies," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 14(2), pages 153-158.
    5. Olivier Blanchard, 2018. "Should We Reject the Natural Rate Hypothesis?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(1), pages 97-120, Winter.
    6. Daniel Osorio Barreto & Carlos David Cardona Arenas & José Hernán Parra Sánchez & Cristian Felipe Jiménez Varón & Juan Manuel Cardona Duque, 2022. "Determinants of Economic Growth in Founder Countries of the PA and the ASAN," Revista Equidad y Desarrollo, Universidad de la Salle, vol. 39(39), pages 1-178, October.
    7. Daniele Girardi & Walter Paternesi Meloni & Antonella Stirati, 2018. "Persistent Effects of Autonomous Demand Expansions," Working Papers Series 70, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    8. Pedro Portugal & Olivier Blanchard, 2001. "What Hides Behind an Unemployment Rate: Comparing Portuguese and U.S. Labor Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 187-207, March.
    9. Feraud, Katherine & Flores, Jorge, 2019. "Impacto de las importaciones en la industria manufacturera a nivel global: Un análisis de datos panel," Revista Económica, Centro de Investigaciones Sociales y Económicas, Universidad Nacional de Loja, vol. 6(1), pages 92-99, Enero.
    10. Dani Rodrik, 2016. "Premature deindustrialization," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 1-33, March.
    11. Kaldor, Nicholas, 1970. "The Case for Regional Policies," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 17(3), pages 337-348, November.
    12. Imadeddin Ahmed Almosabbeh & Mohamad Abulkarem Almoree, 2018. "The relationship between manufacturing production and economic growth in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 45(4), pages 674-690, September.
    13. Amarendra SHARMA & Oscar CÁRDENAS, 2018. "Remittances and labour market outcomes: Evidence from Mexico," International Labour Review, International Labour Organization, vol. 157(2), pages 193-212, June.
    14. Antonio Rodriguez-Gil, 2018. "Hysteresis and labour market institutions. Evidence from the UK and the Netherlands," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 1985-2025, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Skott, Peter, 2021. "Fiscal policy and structural transformation in developing economies," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 129-140.
    2. Leonardo Fabio Morales & Leonardo Bonilla‐Mejía & Jose Pulido & Luz A. Flórez & Didier Hermida & Karen L. Pulido‐Mahecha & Francisco Lasso‐Valderrama, 2022. "Effects of the COVID‐19 pandemic on the Colombian labour market: Disentangling the effect of sector‐specific mobility restrictions," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(S1), pages 308-357, February.
    3. Gisela Di Meglio & Jorge Gallego & Andrés Maroto & Maria Savona, 2015. "Services in Developing Economies: A new chance for catching-up?," SPRU Working Paper Series 2015-32, SPRU - Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex Business School.
    4. Matteo Deleidi & Walter Paternesi Meloni & Antonella Stirati, 2020. "Tertiarization, productivity and aggregate demand: evidence-based policies for European countries," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 30(5), pages 1429-1465, November.
    5. Ismaila Akanni Yusuf & Mohammed Bashir Salaudeen & Isaac Azubuike Ogbuji, 2022. "Exchange Rate Fluctuation and Inflation Nexus in Nigeria: The Case of Recent Recession," Journal of Economic Impact, Science Impact Publishers, vol. 4(1), pages 81-87.
    6. Paternesi Meloni, Walter & Romaniello, Davide & Stirati, Antonella, 2022. "Inflation and the NAIRU: assessing the role of long-term unemployment as a cause of hysteresis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    7. Riccardo Pariboni & Pasquale Tridico, 2020. "Structural change, institutions and the dynamics of labor productivity in Europe," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 30(5), pages 1275-1300, November.
    8. Gisela Di Meglio & Jorge Gallego & Andrés Maroto & Maria Savona, 2018. "Services in Developing Economies: The Deindustrialization Debate in Perspective," Development and Change, International Institute of Social Studies, vol. 49(6), pages 1495-1525, November.
    9. Mario Paguay & Juan Diego Febres & Eduardo Valarezo, 2023. "Occupational Accidents in Ecuador: An Approach from the Construction and Manufacturing Industries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-14, August.
    10. Itaman, Richard E. & Awopegba, Oluwafemi E., 2021. "Finance, oil rent and premature deindustrialisation in Nigeria," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 149-161.
    11. Brand, Claus & Obstbaum, Meri & Coenen, Günter & Sondermann, David & Lydon, Reamonn & Ajevskis, Viktors & Hammermann, Felix & Angino, Siria & Hernborg, Nils & Basso, Henrique & Hertweck, Matthias & Bi, 2021. "Employment and the conduct of monetary policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 275, European Central Bank.
    12. Robert Calvert Jump & Engelbert Stockhammer, 2019. "Reconsidering the natural rate hypothesis," FMM Working Paper 45-2019, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    13. Wright, Austin L. & Sonin, Konstantin & Driscoll, Jesse & Wilson, Jarnickae, 2020. "Poverty and economic dislocation reduce compliance with COVID-19 shelter-in-place protocols," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 544-554.
    14. John A. Mathews, 2020. "Schumpeterian economic dynamics of greening: propagation of green eco-platforms," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 929-948, September.
    15. Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & Ricardo Lagos, 2007. "A Model of Job and Worker Flows," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(5), pages 770-819, October.
    16. Özgür Orhangazi & A. Erinç Yeldan, 2021. "The Re‐making of the Turkish Crisis," Development and Change, International Institute of Social Studies, vol. 52(3), pages 460-503, May.
    17. Imam, M. & Jamasb, T. & Llorca, M. & Llorca, M., 2018. "Power Sector Reform and Corruption: Evidence from Electricity Industry in Sub-Saharan Africa," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1801, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    18. Lídia Farré & Francesco Fasani & Hannes Mueller, 2018. "Feeling useless: the effect of unemployment on mental health in the Great Recession," IZA Journal of Labor Economics, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 7(1), pages 1-34, December.
    19. Jose Garcia‐Louzao & Marta Silva, 2024. "Coworker networks and the labor market outcomes of displaced workers: Evidence from Portugal," Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(3), pages 389-413, July.
    20. Pedro S. Martins, 2007. "Heterogeneity In Real Wage Cyclicality," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 54(5), pages 684-698, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:jknowl:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1007_s13132-024-01927-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.