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Applying Artificial Neural Networks and Arima Models to Analyze the Impact of ICT on the Economic Growth in Turkey

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  • Nadide Hüsnüoğlu

    (Giresun University)

  • Volkan Oda

    (Giresun University)

Abstract

Information and communications technology (ICT) has a significant impact on economic growth. In this study, by using artificial neural networks (ANN) method, unlike the previous studies, the effects of the variables of information technologies on the economic growth are sorted. In addition, the dependent variables per capita income were made estimation and prediction with autoregressive ıntegrated moving average (ARIMA) and ANN models. According to the results of the analysis, the order of importance of the factors affecting economic growth; mobil phone usage rate (100%), İnternet usage rate (64.7%), fixed capital investment (51.6%), labor force participation rate (34.0%), and R&D (26.2%). Then time series analysis was done. The coefficient of determination of the values estimated from the ANN model R2 = 0.988. R2 = 0.926 for the values estimated by the ARIMA model from the time series analysis. As a result, ıt has been observed that the modeling of economic growth data with ANN gives better results than modeling with time series analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Nadide Hüsnüoğlu & Volkan Oda, 2023. "Applying Artificial Neural Networks and Arima Models to Analyze the Impact of ICT on the Economic Growth in Turkey," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 14(4), pages 4657-4674, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jknowl:v:14:y:2023:i:4:d:10.1007_s13132-022-01031-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s13132-022-01031-9
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