IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/jecstr/v9y2020i1d10.1186_s40008-020-0188-5.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Does political risk matter for economic and financial risks in Venezuela?

Author

Listed:
  • Dervis Kirikkaleli

    (European University of Lefke)

Abstract

In this paper, the time–frequency dependency of political risk as well as economic and financial risks is explored in Venezuela using quarterly data from 1984Q1 to 2018Q4. The present study uses the wavelet coherence technique, which allows the investigation of both the long and short-term causal relationships between political risk and economic and financial risks in Venezuela. The findings of this study indicate that: (i) significant vulnerabilities in political risk, economic risk, and financial risk are observed at different time periods and different frequency levels; (ii) political risk has a strong power for explaining economic risk from 1995 to 2005 in the long run, while between 1984 and 2010, economic risk and political risk are positively correlated at different frequency levels; (iii) in the long run, changes in political risk significantly lead to changes in financial risk in Venezuela.

Suggested Citation

  • Dervis Kirikkaleli, 2020. "Does political risk matter for economic and financial risks in Venezuela?," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 9(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jecstr:v:9:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1186_s40008-020-0188-5
    DOI: 10.1186/s40008-020-0188-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1186/s40008-020-0188-5
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1186/s40008-020-0188-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Charfeddine, Lanouar & Al Refai, Hisham, 2019. "Political tensions, stock market dependence and volatility spillover: Evidence from the recent intra-GCC crises," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    2. Dimitrios Asteriou & Simon Price, 2001. "Political Instability and Economic Growth: UK Time Series Evidence," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 48(4), pages 383-399, September.
    3. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "A Cross-Country Study of Growth, Saving, and Government," NBER Chapters, in: National Saving and Economic Performance, pages 271-304, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Alexakis, Panayotis & Petrakis, Panayotis, 1991. "Analysing stock market behaviour in a small capital market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 471-483, June.
    5. Hillier, David & Loncan, Tiago, 2019. "Political uncertainty and Stock returns: Evidence from the Brazilian Political Crisis," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 1-12.
    6. Sweidan Osama D., 2016. "Political Instability and Economic Growth: Evidence from Jordan," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 12(3), pages 279-300, December.
    7. Godwin Okafor, 2017. "The impact of political instability on the economic growth of ECOWAS member countries," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(2), pages 208-229, March.
    8. Huiqiang Wang, 2019. "The causality link between political risk and stock prices," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 11(3), pages 338-367, May.
    9. Asteriou, Dimitrios & Price, Simon, 2001. "Political Instability and Economic Growth: UK Time Series Evidence," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 48(4), pages 383-399, September.
    10. Samet Gunay, 2016. "Is political risk still an issue for Turkish stock market?," Borsa Istanbul Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 16(1), pages 21-31, March.
    11. Malak Samih Abu Murad & Nooh Alshyab, 2019. "Political instability and its impact on economic growth: the case of Jordan," International Journal of Development Issues, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 18(3), pages 366-380, September.
    12. Dervis Kirikkaleli, 2019. "Time–frequency dependency of financial risk and economic risk: evidence from Greece," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 8(1), pages 1-10, December.
    13. Pal, Debdatta & Mitra, Subrata K., 2017. "Time-frequency contained co-movement of crude oil and world food prices: A wavelet-based analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 230-239.
    14. Chan, Yue-cheong & John Wei, K. C., 1996. "Political risk and stock price volatility: The case of Hong Kong," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 259-275, July.
    15. Hamdi, Besma & Aloui, Mouna & Alqahtani, Faisal & Tiwari, Aviral, 2019. "Relationship between the oil price volatility and sectoral stock markets in oil-exporting economies: Evidence from wavelet nonlinear denoised based quantile and Granger-causality analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 536-552.
    16. Leonardo Vera, 2015. "Venezuela 1999–2014: Macro-Policy, Oil Governance and Economic Performance," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 57(3), pages 539-568, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kondoz, Mehmet & Kirikkaleli, Dervis & Athari, Seyed Alireza, 2021. "Time-frequency dependencies of financial and economic risks in South American countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 170-181.
    2. Yating, Yang & Mughal, Nafeesa & Wen, Jun & Thi Ngan, Truong & Ramirez-Asis, Edwin & Maneengam, Apichit, 2022. "Economic performance and natural resources commodity prices volatility: Evidence from global data," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    3. Khan, Zeeshan & Badeeb, Ramez Abubakr & Nawaz, Kishwar, 2022. "Natural resources and economic performance: Evaluating the role of political risk and renewable energy consumption," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    4. Zhang, Feng & Huang, Yongming & Nan, Xiaoli, 2022. "The price volatility of natural resource commodity and global economic policy uncertainty: Evidence from US economy," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    5. Xiaojuan He & Dervis Kirikkaleli & Melike Torun & Zecheng Li, 2021. "Modeling Economic Risk in the QISMUT Countries: Evidence From Nonlinear Cointegration Tests," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(4), pages 21582440211, October.
    6. Liu, Wenwen & Chen, Xue, 2022. "Natural resources commodity prices volatility and economic uncertainty: Evaluating the role of oil and gas rents in COVID-19," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    7. Cui, Lianbiao & Weng, Shimei & Kirikkaleli, Dervis & Bashir, Muhammad Adnan & Rjoub, Husam & Zhou, Yuanxiang, 2021. "Exploring the role of natural resources, natural gas and oil production for economic growth of China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    8. Larissa M. Batrancea & Mehmet Ali Balcı & Leontina Chermezan & Ömer Akgüller & Ema Speranta Masca & Lucian Gaban, 2022. "Sources of SMEs Financing and Their Impact on Economic Growth across the European Union: Insights from a Panel Data Study Spanning Sixteen Years," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-18, November.
    9. Li, Menghan & Hamawandy, Nawzad Majeed & Wahid, Fazle & Rjoub, Husam & Bao, Zongke, 2021. "Renewable energy resources investment and green finance: Evidence from China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    10. Hunjra, Ahmed Imran & Azam, Muhammad & Bruna, Maria Giuseppina & Verhoeven, Peter & Al-Faryan, Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh, 2022. "Sustainable development: The impact of political risk, macroeconomic policy uncertainty and ethnic conflict," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    11. Sun, Li & Wang, Yang, 2021. "Global economic performance and natural resources commodity prices volatility: Evidence from pre and post COVID-19 era," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    12. Zhou, Shuai & Qian, Yudan & Farmanesh, Panteha, 2022. "The economic cost of environmental laws: Volatility transmission mechanism and remedies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    13. Dervis Kirikkaleli & Hasan Güngör, 2021. "Co-movement of commodity price indexes and energy price index: a wavelet coherence approach," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-18, December.
    14. Tang, Shi & Ma, Yechi & Altuntaş, Mehmet, 2022. "Natural resources volatility, political risk and economic performance: Evidence from quantile-on-quantile regression," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    15. Xingxing He & Korhan K. Gokmenoglu & Dervis Kirikkaleli & Syed Kumail Abbas Rizvi, 2023. "Co‐movement of foreign exchange rate returns and stock market returns in an emerging market: Evidence from the wavelet coherence approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 1994-2005, April.
    16. Ma, Qiang & Zhang, Mei & Ali, Sher & Kirikkaleli, Dervis & Khan, Zeeshan, 2021. "Natural resources commodity prices volatility and economic performance: Evidence from China pre and post COVID-19," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    17. Adebayo, Tomiwa Sunday, 2021. "Testing the EKC Hypothesis in Indonesia: Empirical Evidence from the ARDL-Based Bounds and Wavelet Coherence Approaches," Asian Journal of Applied Economics, Kasetsart University, Center for Applied Economics Research, vol. 28(1).
    18. Guo, Shanwen & Wang, Qibin & Hordofa, Tolassa Temesgen & Kaur, Prabjot & Nguyen, Ngoc Quynh & Maneengam, Apichit, 2022. "Does COVID-19 pandemic cause natural resources commodity prices volatility? Empirical evidence from China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xiaojuan He & Dervis Kirikkaleli & Melike Torun & Zecheng Li, 2021. "Modeling Economic Risk in the QISMUT Countries: Evidence From Nonlinear Cointegration Tests," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(4), pages 21582440211, October.
    2. Taiwo Akinlo & Omobola Hannah Arowolo & Taofeek Bidemi Zubair, "undated". "Political instability and economic growth in Nigeria," Review of Socio - Economic Perspectives 202209, Reviewsep.
    3. Pasha, Sukrishnalall, 2020. "The impact of political instability on economic growth: the case of Guyana," MPRA Paper 103145, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Hartwell, Christopher A., 2014. "The impact of institutional volatility on financial volatility in transition economies : a GARCH family approach," BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/2014, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    5. Demir, Firat, 2006. "Volatility of short term capital flows and socio-political instability in Argentina, Mexico and Turkey," MPRA Paper 1943, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Mariusz Próchniak, 2013. "To What Extent Is the Institutional Environment Responsible for Worldwide Differences in Economic Development," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 7(3), September.
    7. Nurudeen Abu & Mohd Zaini Abd Karim & Mukhriz Izraf Azman Aziz, 2015. "Corruption, Political Instability and Economic Development in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS): Is There a Causal Relationship?," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 9(1), March.
    8. Esra Soyu Yıldırım & Cuma Demirtaş & Munise Ilıkkan Özgür, 2022. "Causality Relationship Between Economic, Financial, Political Risk and Growth: The Case of Turkey," Journal of Economic Policy Researches, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 165-186, January.
    9. Abdul Rauf & Ameer Muhammad Aamir Abbas & Asim Rafiq & Saifullah Shakir & Saira Abid, 2022. "The Impact of Political Instability, Food Prices, and Crime Rate on Tourism: A Way toward Sustainable Tourism in Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-17, December.
    10. Dervis Kirikkaleli & Hasan Güngör, 2021. "Co-movement of commodity price indexes and energy price index: a wavelet coherence approach," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-18, December.
    11. repec:zbw:bofitp:2014_006 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Chau, Frankie & Deesomsak, Rataporn & Wang, Jun, 2014. "Political uncertainty and stock market volatility in the Middle East and North African (MENA) countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 1-19.
    13. Campos, Nauro F. & Karanasos, Menelaos G., 2008. "Growth, volatility and political instability: Non-linear time-series evidence for Argentina, 1896-2000," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 135-137, July.
    14. Zheng, Jingling & Li, Zeyun & Ghardallou, Wafa & Wei, Xuecheng, 2023. "Natural resources and economic performance: Understanding the volatilities caused by financial, political and economic risk in the context of China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    15. Hasan Vergil & Erdogan Teyyare, 2017. "Crisis, Institutional Quality and Economic Growth," Bogazici Journal, Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Studies, Bogazici University, Department of Economics, vol. 31(2), pages 1-19.
    16. Nauro Campos & Menelaos Karanasos, 2007. "Growth, Volatility & Political Instability: Non Linear Time Series Evidence for Argentina 1896-2000," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp891, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    17. Fatma Ben Moussa & Mariem Talbi, 2019. "Stock Market Reaction to Terrorist Attacks and Political Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence from the Tunisian Stock Exchange," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 9(3), pages 48-64.
    18. Faiza Ahmed & Tooba Jivani & Azam Anwar Khan, 2023. "Political Instability and Stock Market: An Event Study," Journal of Policy Research (JPR), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 9(2), pages 339-345.
    19. Corbet, Shaen & Gurdgiev, Constantin & Meegan, Andrew, 2018. "Long-term stock market volatility and the influence of terrorist attacks in Europe," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 118-131.
    20. Campos, Nauro & Karanasos, Menelaos & Tan, Bin, 2008. "Two to Tangle: Financial Development, Political Instability and Economic Growth in Argentina (1896-2000)," CEPR Discussion Papers 7004, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    21. La Ode Saidi & Hasan Aedy & Fajar Saranani & Rosnawintang Rosnawintang & Pasrun Adam & La Ode Arsad Sani, 2020. "Crude Oil Price and Exchange Rate: An Analysis of the Asymmetric Effect and Volatility Using the Non Linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag and General Autoregressive Conditional Heterochedasticity in ," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(1), pages 104-108.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:jecstr:v:9:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1186_s40008-020-0188-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.