IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/jecstr/v14y2025i1d10.1186_s40008-025-00356-3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An ex-ante evaluation of the impact of COVID-19 on Ecuador’s production network

Author

Listed:
  • José Ramírez-Álvarez

    (Escuela Politécnica Nacional)

  • Josselyn Ramos

    (Escuela Politécnica Nacional)

  • Kevin Gordón

    (Escuela Politécnica Nacional)

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic was categorized as a severe global exogenous shock that affected aggregate supply and led to demand distortions. In the present study, we designed an extended Leontief model with foreign trade and gross added value to evaluate the ex-ante effects of the crisis on Ecuador’s production system. The magnitude of the supply and demand shocks caused by the pandemic was compiled through a meta-analysis derived from governmental and non-governmental sources. The results show that the pandemic would generate an average variation in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2020 of − 7.4%. The most affected sectors would be the manufacture of basic metals, transport equipment, plastic products, and domestic services. In contrast, the most beneficial sectors would be the grain mill products, coffee, bakery, and noodles.

Suggested Citation

  • José Ramírez-Álvarez & Josselyn Ramos & Kevin Gordón, 2025. "An ex-ante evaluation of the impact of COVID-19 on Ecuador’s production network," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 14(1), pages 1-24, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jecstr:v:14:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1186_s40008-025-00356-3
    DOI: 10.1186/s40008-025-00356-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1186/s40008-025-00356-3
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1186/s40008-025-00356-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Vasco M. Carvalho, 2014. "From Micro to Macro via Production Networks," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(4), pages 23-48, Fall.
    2. Vanda Almeida & Salvador Barrios & Michael Christl & Silvia Poli & Alberto Tumino & Wouter Wielen, 2021. "The impact of COVID-19 on households´ income in the EU," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 19(3), pages 413-431, September.
    3. Andrzej Torój, 2013. "Why Don’t Blanchard-Kahn ever "Catch" Flu? And How it Matters for Measuring Indirect Cost of Epidemics in DSGE Framework," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 5(3), pages 185-206, September.
    4. Krista Danielle S. Yu & Kathleen B. Aviso & Joost R. Santos & Raymond R. Tan, 2020. "The Economic Impact of Lockdowns: A Persistent Inoperability Input-Output Approach," Economies, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-14, December.
    5. Eduardo A. Haddad & Fernando S. Perobelli & Inácio F. Araújo & Karina S. S. Bugarin, 2021. "Structural propagation of pandemic shocks: an input–output analysis of the economic costs of COVID-19," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 252-270, July.
    6. Fahd Boundi Chraki, 2017. "Análisis insumo-producto multirregional e integración económica del TLCAN. Una aplicación del método de extracción hipotética," Cuadernos de Economía - Spanish Journal of Economics and Finance, Asociación Cuadernos de Economía, vol. 40(114), pages 256-267, Septiembr.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lo Turco, Alessia & Maggioni, Daniela & Zazzaro, Alberto, 2019. "Financial dependence and growth: The role of input-output linkages," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 308-328.
    2. Peydró, José-Luis & Jiménez, Gabriel & Kenan, Huremovic & Moral-Benito, Enrique & Vega-Redondo, Fernando, 2020. "Production and financial networks in interplay: Crisis evidence from supplier-customer and credit registers," CEPR Discussion Papers 15277, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Erik Frohm & Vanessa Gunnella, 2021. "Spillovers in global production networks," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(3), pages 663-680, August.
    4. Giovanni Gallo & Silvia Granato & michele Raitano, 2022. "Heterogeneous effects of the Covid-19 crisis on Italian workers’ incomes: the role played by jobs routinization and teleworkability," Center for the Analysis of Public Policies (CAPP) 0180, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    5. David Rodríguez & H. Xavier Jara & Mariana Dondo & Cristina Arancibia & David Macas & Rebeca Riella & Joana Urraburu & Linda Llamas & Luis Huesca & Javier Torres & Rodrigo Chang, 2022. "The role of tax-benefit systems in protecting household incomes in Latin America during the COVID-19 pandemic," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2022-125, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    6. Lorenzo Burlon, 2015. "Ownership networks and aggregate volatility," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1004, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    7. Kim, Daisoon, 2021. "Economies of scale and international business cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    8. Julian Di Giovanni & Galina Hale, 2022. "Stock Market Spillovers via the Global Production Network: Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(6), pages 3373-3421, December.
    9. Hötte, Kerstin, 2023. "Demand-pull, technology-push, and the direction of technological change," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(5).
    10. Mundt, Philipp, 2021. "The formation of input–output architecture: Evidence from the European Union," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 89-104.
    11. Tessier, Philippe & Wolff, François-Charles, 2025. "Did the COVID-19 pandemic change the importance of health for life satisfaction? Evidence from France," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    12. Michael Christl & Silvia Poli & Tine Hufkens & Andreas Peichl & Mattia Ricci, 2023. "The role of short-time work and discretionary policy measures in mitigating the effects of the COVID-19 crisis in Germany," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 30(4), pages 1107-1136, August.
    13. Zihui Yang & Yinggang Zhou & Xin Cheng, 2020. "Systemic risk in global volatility spillover networks: Evidence from option‐implied volatility indices," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(3), pages 392-409, March.
    14. Ernest Liu & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2021. "Dynamical Structure and Spectral Properties of Input-Output Networks," Working Papers 2021-13, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    15. Bartesaghi, Paolo & Clemente, Gian Paolo & Grassi, Rosanna & Luu, Duc Thi, 2022. "The multilayer architecture of the global input-output network and its properties," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 304-341.
    16. Bernstein, Shai & Colonnelli, Emanuele & Giroud, Xavier & Iverson, Benjamin, 2019. "Bankruptcy spillovers," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(3), pages 608-633.
    17. Ernesto Pasten & Raphael S. Schoenle & Michael Weber & Michael Weber, 2017. "Price Rigidities and the Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," CESifo Working Paper Series 6619, CESifo.
    18. Andrew E. Clark & Conchita D’Ambrosio & Anthony Lepinteur, 2022. "Correction to: the Fall in Income Inequality during COVID-19 in Four European Countries," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 20(2), pages 503-507, June.
    19. Charles D. Brummitt & Kenan Huremović & Paolo Pin & Matthew H. Bonds & Fernando Vega-Redondo, 2017. "Contagious disruptions and complexity traps in economic development," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 1(9), pages 665-672, September.
    20. Wang, Chengwei & Miao, Wang & Lu, Miaomiao, 2022. "Evolution of the Chinese industrial structure: A social network perspective," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • D57 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Input-Output Tables and Analysis

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:jecstr:v:14:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1186_s40008-025-00356-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.