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An ex-ante evaluation of the impact of COVID-19 on Ecuador’s production network

Author

Listed:
  • José Ramírez-Álvarez

    (Escuela Politécnica Nacional)

  • Josselyn Ramos

    (Escuela Politécnica Nacional)

  • Kevin Gordón

    (Escuela Politécnica Nacional)

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic was categorized as a severe global exogenous shock that affected aggregate supply and led to demand distortions. In the present study, we designed an extended Leontief model with foreign trade and gross added value to evaluate the ex-ante effects of the crisis on Ecuador’s production system. The magnitude of the supply and demand shocks caused by the pandemic was compiled through a meta-analysis derived from governmental and non-governmental sources. The results show that the pandemic would generate an average variation in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2020 of − 7.4%. The most affected sectors would be the manufacture of basic metals, transport equipment, plastic products, and domestic services. In contrast, the most beneficial sectors would be the grain mill products, coffee, bakery, and noodles.

Suggested Citation

  • José Ramírez-Álvarez & Josselyn Ramos & Kevin Gordón, 2025. "An ex-ante evaluation of the impact of COVID-19 on Ecuador’s production network," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 14(1), pages 1-24, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jecstr:v:14:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1186_s40008-025-00356-3
    DOI: 10.1186/s40008-025-00356-3
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Input–output model; Production network; Ex-ante evaluation; Meta-analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • D57 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Input-Output Tables and Analysis

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