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An empirical analysis of African trade blocs effects on the global economy: new evidence from the gravity model

Author

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  • David Oluseun Olayungbo

    (Obafemi Awolowo University)

  • Badar Alam Iqbal

    (Monarch Business School)

Abstract

This study employs the gravity model to estimate the extent of the contribution of six African trade blocs to the global economy using the gravity model spanning from 1980 to 2018. The gravity equation that models the export contributions of the six selected African RECs to the global export is estimated. The estimated gravity model reveals that the long run estimations show that the coefficient estimate for SACU and ECCAS are insignificant in the long run while SACU, EAC and ECCAS as RECs, have insignificant contribution to export in the short run. Our findings, after establishing cointegration, on the other hand show that COMESA has the highest contribution to the global exports, followed by EAC, ECOWAS and SADC with ECCAS and SACU the lowest contributors. The highest contribution of COMESA followed by EAC may be due to the growing economy of member countries like Kenya and Rwanda, while that of COMESA and SADC may be as a result of the large economy of Nigeria and South Africa respectively. This study concludes that African countries are emerging with great export potentials, therefore, governments and private sectors should create the necessary incentives and export policies for the realization of these potentials to maximise the global value chain.

Suggested Citation

  • David Oluseun Olayungbo & Badar Alam Iqbal, 2021. "An empirical analysis of African trade blocs effects on the global economy: new evidence from the gravity model," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 1-11, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:futbus:v:7:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1186_s43093-021-00089-2
    DOI: 10.1186/s43093-021-00089-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Francis Lwesya, 2022. "Integration into regional or global value chains and economic upgrading prospects: an analysis of the East African Community (EAC) bloc," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 1-14, December.
    2. Busani Moyo, 2024. "Impact of SADC Free Trade Area on Southern Africa’s Intra-Trade Performance: Implications for the African Continental Free Trade Area," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 59(1), pages 146-180, February.

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