IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/finsto/v16y2012i4p669-709.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Risk assessment for uncertain cash flows: model ambiguity, discounting ambiguity, and the role of bubbles

Author

Listed:
  • Beatrice Acciaio
  • Hans Föllmer
  • Irina Penner

Abstract

We study the risk assessment of uncertain cash flows in terms of dynamic convex risk measures for processes as introduced in Cheridito et al. (Electron. J. Probab. 11(3):57–106, 2006 ). These risk measures take into account not only the amounts but also the timing of a cash flow. We discuss their robust representation in terms of suitably penalised probability measures on the optional σ-field. This yields an explicit analysis both of model and discounting ambiguity. We focus on supermartingale criteria for time consistency. In particular, we show how “bubbles” may appear in the dynamic penalisation, and how they cause a breakdown of asymptotic safety of the risk assessment procedure. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2012

Suggested Citation

  • Beatrice Acciaio & Hans Föllmer & Irina Penner, 2012. "Risk assessment for uncertain cash flows: model ambiguity, discounting ambiguity, and the role of bubbles," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 669-709, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:finsto:v:16:y:2012:i:4:p:669-709
    DOI: 10.1007/s00780-012-0176-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s00780-012-0176-1
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s00780-012-0176-1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marco Frittelli & Giacomo Scandolo, 2006. "Risk Measures And Capital Requirements For Processes," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(4), pages 589-612, October.
    2. Frittelli, Marco & Rosazza Gianin, Emanuela, 2002. "Putting order in risk measures," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1473-1486, July.
    3. Freddy Delbaen & Shige Peng & Emanuela Rosazza Gianin, 2010. "Representation of the penalty term of dynamic concave utilities," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 449-472, September.
    4. Patrick Cheridito & Michael Kupper, 2011. "Composition Of Time-Consistent Dynamic Monetary Risk Measures In Discrete Time," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 14(01), pages 137-162.
    5. Roorda, Berend & Schumacher, J.M., 2007. "Time consistency conditions for acceptability measures, with an application to Tail Value at Risk," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 209-230, March.
    6. Constantinos Kardaras, 2009. "Num\'{e}raire-invariant preferences in financial modeling," Papers 0903.3736, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2010.
    7. Maccheroni, Fabio & Marinacci, Massimo & Rustichini, Aldo, 2006. "Dynamic variational preferences," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 128(1), pages 4-44, May.
    8. Föllmer Hans & Penner Irina, 2006. "Convex risk measures and the dynamics of their penalty functions," Statistics & Risk Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 24(1/2006), pages 1-36, July.
    9. Epstein, Larry G. & Schneider, Martin, 2003. "Recursive multiple-priors," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 113(1), pages 1-31, November.
    10. Kai Detlefsen & Giacomo Scandolo, 2005. "Conditional and Dynamic Convex Risk Measures," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2005-006, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    11. Gilboa, Itzhak & Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Maxmin expected utility with non-unique prior," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 141-153, April.
    12. Hans Föllmer & Irina Penner, 2011. "Monetary Valuation Of Cash Flows Under Knightian Uncertainty," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 14(01), pages 1-15.
    13. Riedel, Frank, 2004. "Dynamic coherent risk measures," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 185-200, August.
    14. Jocelyne Bion-Nadal, 2008. "Dynamic risk measures: Time consistency and risk measures from BMO martingales," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 219-244, April.
    15. Sina Tutsch, 2008. "Update rules for convex risk measures," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(8), pages 833-843.
    16. Philippe Artzner & Freddy Delbaen & Jean‐Marc Eber & David Heath, 1999. "Coherent Measures of Risk," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 203-228, July.
    17. Kai Detlefsen & Giacomo Scandolo, 2005. "Conditional and dynamic convex risk measures," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 9(4), pages 539-561, October.
    18. Berend Roorda & J. M. Schumacher & Jacob Engwerda, 2005. "Coherent Acceptability Measures In Multiperiod Models," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(4), pages 589-612, October.
    19. Hans Föllmer & Alexander Schied, 2002. "Convex measures of risk and trading constraints," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 429-447.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Saul Jacka & Seb Armstrong & Abdelkarem Berkaoui, 2017. "On representing and hedging claims for coherent risk measures," Papers 1703.03638, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2018.
    2. Elisa Mastrogiacomo & Emanuela Rosazza Gianin, 2019. "Time-consistency of risk measures: how strong is such a property?," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 42(1), pages 287-317, June.
    3. Eisele Karl-Theodor & Kupper Michael, 2016. "Asymptotically stable dynamic risk assessments," Statistics & Risk Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 33(1-2), pages 41-50, September.
    4. Tomasz R. Bielecki & Igor Cialenco & Marcin Pitera, 2016. "A survey of time consistency of dynamic risk measures and dynamic performance measures in discrete time: LM-measure perspective," Papers 1603.09030, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2017.
    5. Drapeau, Samuel & Jamneshan, Asgar, 2016. "Conditional preference orders and their numerical representations," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 106-118.
    6. Gabriela Kov'av{c}ov'a & Birgit Rudloff & Igor Cialenco, 2020. "Acceptability maximization," Papers 2012.11972, arXiv.org.
    7. Tomasz R. Bielecki & Igor Cialenco & Marcin Pitera, 2018. "A Unified Approach to Time Consistency of Dynamic Risk Measures and Dynamic Performance Measures in Discrete Time," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 43(1), pages 204-221, February.
    8. Tomasz R. Bielecki & Igor Cialenco & Marcin Pitera, 2014. "A unified approach to time consistency of dynamic risk measures and dynamic performance measures in discrete time," Papers 1409.7028, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2017.
    9. Irina Penner & Anthony Reveillac, 2013. "Risk measures for processes and BSDEs," Papers 1304.4853, arXiv.org.
    10. Daniel Bartl, 2016. "Conditional nonlinear expectations," Papers 1612.09103, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2019.
    11. Samuel Drapeau & Michael Kupper, 2013. "Risk Preferences and Their Robust Representation," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 38(1), pages 28-62, February.
    12. Marlon Moresco & M'elina Mailhot & Silvana M. Pesenti, 2023. "Uncertainty Propagation and Dynamic Robust Risk Measures," Papers 2308.12856, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.
    13. Aloisio Araujo & Alain Chateauneuf & José Heleno Faro & Bruno Holanda, 2019. "Updating pricing rules," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 68(2), pages 335-361, September.
    14. Teemu Pennanen & Ari-Pekka Perkkio, 2016. "Convex duality in optimal investment and contingent claim valuation in illiquid markets," Papers 1603.02867, arXiv.org.
    15. Yanhong Chen & Zachary Feinstein, 2022. "Set-valued dynamic risk measures for processes and for vectors," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 505-533, July.
    16. Fei Sun & Jingchao Li & Jieming Zhou, 2018. "Dynamic risk measures with fluctuation of market volatility under Bochne-Lebesgue space," Papers 1806.01166, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2024.
    17. Irina Penner & Anthony Réveillac, 2013. "Risk measures for processes and BSDEs," Working Papers hal-00814702, HAL.
    18. Irina Penner & Anthony Réveillac, 2015. "Risk measures for processes and BSDEs," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 23-66, January.
    19. E. Kromer & L. Overbeck & K. Zilch, 2019. "Dynamic systemic risk measures for bounded discrete time processes," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 90(1), pages 77-108, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Acciaio, Beatrice & Föllmer, Hans & Penner, Irina, 2012. "Risk assessment for uncertain cash flows: model ambiguity, discounting ambiguity, and the role of bubbles," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 50118, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Stadje, Mitja, 2010. "Extending dynamic convex risk measures from discrete time to continuous time: A convergence approach," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 391-404, December.
    3. Zachary Feinstein & Birgit Rudloff, 2018. "Scalar multivariate risk measures with a single eligible asset," Papers 1807.10694, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2021.
    4. Zachary Feinstein & Birgit Rudloff, 2018. "Time consistency for scalar multivariate risk measures," Papers 1810.04978, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2021.
    5. Tomasz R. Bielecki & Igor Cialenco & Marcin Pitera, 2014. "A unified approach to time consistency of dynamic risk measures and dynamic performance measures in discrete time," Papers 1409.7028, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2017.
    6. Beatrice Acciaio & Irina Penner, 2010. "Dynamic risk measures," Papers 1002.3794, arXiv.org.
    7. Beatrice Acciaio & Hans Foellmer & Irina Penner, 2010. "Risk assessment for uncertain cash flows: Model ambiguity, discounting ambiguity, and the role of bubbles," Papers 1002.3627, arXiv.org.
    8. Zachary Feinstein & Birgit Rudloff, 2012. "Multiportfolio time consistency for set-valued convex and coherent risk measures," Papers 1212.5563, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2014.
    9. Bellini, Fabio & Laeven, Roger J.A. & Rosazza Gianin, Emanuela, 2021. "Dynamic robust Orlicz premia and Haezendonck–Goovaerts risk measures," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 291(2), pages 438-446.
    10. Ji, Ronglin & Shi, Xuejun & Wang, Shijie & Zhou, Jinming, 2019. "Dynamic risk measures for processes via backward stochastic differential equations," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 43-50.
    11. Elisa Mastrogiacomo & Emanuela Rosazza Gianin, 2019. "Time-consistency of risk measures: how strong is such a property?," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 42(1), pages 287-317, June.
    12. Dan A. Iancu & Marek Petrik & Dharmashankar Subramanian, 2015. "Tight Approximations of Dynamic Risk Measures," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 40(3), pages 655-682, March.
    13. Zachary Feinstein & Birgit Rudloff, 2015. "Multi-portfolio time consistency for set-valued convex and coherent risk measures," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 67-107, January.
    14. Daniel Lacker, 2015. "Law invariant risk measures and information divergences," Papers 1510.07030, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2016.
    15. Zachary Feinstein & Birgit Rudloff, 2015. "A Supermartingale Relation for Multivariate Risk Measures," Papers 1510.05561, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2018.
    16. Roorda Berend & Schumacher Hans, 2013. "Membership conditions for consistent families of monetary valuations," Statistics & Risk Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 30(3), pages 255-280, August.
    17. Yanhong Chen & Zachary Feinstein, 2022. "Set-valued dynamic risk measures for processes and for vectors," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 505-533, July.
    18. Föllmer Hans, 2014. "Spatial risk measures and their local specification: The locally law-invariant case," Statistics & Risk Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 31(1), pages 1-23, March.
    19. Mitja Stadje, 2018. "Representation Results for Law Invariant Recursive Dynamic Deviation Measures and Risk Sharing," Papers 1811.09615, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2018.
    20. Andrzej Ruszczynski & Jianing Yao, 2017. "A Dual Method For Backward Stochastic Differential Equations with Application to Risk Valuation," Papers 1701.06234, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2020.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dynamic convex risk measures; Cash flows; Discounting ambiguity; Model ambiguity; Robust representation; Time consistency; Dynamic penalisation; Asymptotic safety; Bubbles; Cash subadditivity; 60G35; 91B30; 91B16; D81;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:finsto:v:16:y:2012:i:4:p:669-709. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.