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Predictive sustainability assessment based on provincial 5-year development plans in China

Author

Listed:
  • Weiwei Li

    (Northeastern University
    Northeastern University)

  • Danning Zhang

    (Liaoning University)

  • Wenfeng Hui

    (Northeastern University)

Abstract

Sustainability is an important concern for many countries. Some plans are usually made in advance to guide the sustainable development. Sustainability assessment based on development plans can provide pre-judgment about the sustainability prospect of the evaluated objects. The paper predictively assessed the sustainability of the provincial-level regions in China according to the 14th 5-Year Development Plan. Firstly, the indicator system was constructed based on the indicators given in the development plans. Then, the assessment methods were developed by considering the historical performances and the target values given in development plans simultaneously. A development-oriented sequential relationship analysis weighting method was proposed, which is conducive to the smooth advancement of sustainability construction. The validity of the proposed methods was illustrated by comparison with the mean method. The assessment results show that the sustainability and coordination level of all the provincial-level regions will be improved in 2025. The sustainability performances are most affected by society, followed by economy and environment. It is found that “Number of high-value invention patents per 10,000 population,” “Per capita disposable income increased,” and “Reduction of energy consumption per unit GDP” are the key factors for sustainable development. Based on the findings, valuable suggestions were provided as references.

Suggested Citation

  • Weiwei Li & Danning Zhang & Wenfeng Hui, 2025. "Predictive sustainability assessment based on provincial 5-year development plans in China," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 1597-1617, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:27:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1007_s10668-023-03934-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s10668-023-03934-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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