The heterogeneous drivers of CO2 emissions in China’s two major economic belts: new evidence from spatio-temporal analysis

CO2 emissions have become increasingly prominent in China, and the primary emitters are economic belts that are spread throughout China. Two major economic belts, i.e., the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YTREB) and the Yellow River Economic Belt (YREB). Combined with stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence and technology model, the spatial Durbin model under the space-and-time fixed effect and the Geographical and Time-Weighted Regression are employed to explore the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics and heterogeneous drivers of CO2 emissions in the two economic belts. The results are as follows. First, CO2 emissions exhibit obvious spatial correlation features in the YREB, but no such obvious spatial correlation is found in the YRETB. Second, in the YREB, the magnitude of the total influencing factors on CO2 emissions follows an order where affluence (A) is the biggest driver, followed by energy intensity (EI), technology (TEC) and openness (OP), while the biggest driver in the YRETB is industrial structure supererogation (ISS), followed by population (P), energy intensity (EI), and affluence (A). Both direct and spatial spillover effects of the drivers are observed in the two economic belts. Third, the CO2 emissions show a notable temporal lag effect in the YREB, but not in the YRETB. Fourth, the effects of the CO2 emission drivers illustrate significant spatio-temporal heterogeneity in the two economic belts.