IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/endesu/v26y2024i4d10.1007_s10668-023-03051-0.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Climate change and its consequences on the climatic zoning of Coffea canephora in Brazil

Author

Listed:
  • Pedro Antonio Lorençone

    (IFMS-Federal Instituteof Education)

  • Lucas Eduardo Oliveira Aparecido

    (Minas Gerais-Campus of Muzambinho, IFSULDEMINAS-Federal Institute)

  • João Antonio Lorençone

    (IFMS-Federal Instituteof Education)

  • Guilherme Torsoni Botega

    (IFMS-Federal Instituteof Education)

  • Rafael Fausto Lima

    (IFMS-Federal Instituteof Education)

  • Glauco Souza Rolim

    (São Paulo State University (Unesp))

Abstract

Coffee production has a large share in Brazilian agribusiness and a cultural and social importance in the country. Worldwide, Brazil is the largest producer of arabica coffee and the second largest of canephora species. In 2020, national production was 14.3 million bags of canephora coffee. Few studies on canephora coffee adaptation to climate changes can be found in the literature. Thus, our goal was to identify areas suitable for Coffea canephora cultivation in Brazil under CMIP-5 climate change framework. The study was carried out for the entire country using data on average air temperature data for the entire year, November, and the coldest month, as well as average annual accumulated water deficit for the period of 1960–2020. These data were gathered from the Meteorological Database for Teaching and Research (BDMEP) of the National Institute of Meteorology of Brazil-INMET (Brazil 1992). Furthermore, BCC-CSM1.1 climate model was used at 125 × 125 km resolution to simulate future climate using WorldClim 2 data for 2041–2080, in the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5. Potential climate changes can negatively impact canephora coffee plantations in all CMIP5 RCP scenarios studied. The BCC-CSM1.1 scenarios showed a 65% reduction in total areas suitable for coffee cultivation in Brazil. Rondônia and Bahia were states with the greatest impact of climate change since they had the largest reduction in areas suitable for canephora coffee growth. Currently, both states are major C. canephora producers and can therefore directly compromise regional economy. Thermal excess was the most common class for future scenarios, averaging 56.76% of the entire country.

Suggested Citation

  • Pedro Antonio Lorençone & Lucas Eduardo Oliveira Aparecido & João Antonio Lorençone & Guilherme Torsoni Botega & Rafael Fausto Lima & Glauco Souza Rolim, 2024. "Climate change and its consequences on the climatic zoning of Coffea canephora in Brazil," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 8377-8398, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:26:y:2024:i:4:d:10.1007_s10668-023-03051-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s10668-023-03051-0
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10668-023-03051-0
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10668-023-03051-0?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Benjamin Kipkemboi Kogo & Lalit Kumar & Richard Koech, 2021. "Climate change and variability in Kenya: a review of impacts on agriculture and food security," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 23-43, January.
    2. repec:plo:pone00:0047981 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Byrareddy, Vivekananda & Kouadio, Louis & Kath, Jarrod & Mushtaq, Shahbaz & Rafiei, Vahid & Scobie, Michael & Stone, Roger, 2020. "Win-win: Improved irrigation management saves water and increases yield for robusta coffee farms in Vietnam," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    4. Rahn, Eric & Vaast, Philippe & Läderach, Peter & van Asten, Piet & Jassogne, Laurence & Ghazoul, Jaboury, 2018. "Exploring adaptation strategies of coffee production to climate change using a process-based model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 371(C), pages 76-89.
    5. Muñoz-Rios, Luis Alejandro & Vargas-Villegas, Jair & Suarez, Andres, 2020. "Local perceptions about rural abandonment drivers in the Colombian coffee region: Insights from the city of Manizales," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    6. Yen Pham & Kathryn Reardon-Smith & Shahbaz Mushtaq & Geoff Cockfield, 2019. "The impact of climate change and variability on coffee production: a systematic review," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 156(4), pages 609-630, October.
    7. Bernhard Schauberger & Sotirios Archontoulis & Almut Arneth & Juraj Balkovic & Philippe Ciais & Delphine Deryng & Joshua Elliott & Christian Folberth & Nikolay Khabarov & Christoph Müller & Thomas A. , 2017. "Consistent negative response of US crops to high temperatures in observations and crop models," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-9, April.
    8. Jurandir Zullo & Hilton Pinto & Eduardo Assad & Ana Ávila, 2011. "Potential for growing Arabica coffee in the extreme south of Brazil in a warmer world," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(3), pages 535-548, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Clément, Rigal & Tuan, Duong & Cuong, Vo & Le Van, Bon & Trung, Hoang quôc & Long, Chau Thi Minh, 2023. "Transitioning from Monoculture to Mixed Cropping Systems: The Case of Coffee, Pepper, and Fruit Trees in Vietnam," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    2. Kouadio, Louis & Tixier, Philippe & Byrareddy, Vivekananda & Marcussen, Torben & Mushtaq, Shahbaz & Rapidel, Bruno & Stone, Roger, 2021. "Performance of a process-based model for predicting robusta coffee yield at the regional scale in Vietnam," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 443(C).
    3. Tsegaye Ginbo, 2022. "Heterogeneous impacts of climate change on crop yields across altitudes in Ethiopia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(1), pages 1-21, January.
    4. João Antonio Lorençone & Lucas Eduardo Oliveira Aparecido & Pedro Antonio Lorençone & Guilherme Botega Torsoni & Rafael Fausto Lima & José Reinaldo Silva Cabral de Moraes & Glauco Souza Rolim, 2025. "Agricultural zoning of Coffea arabica in Brazil for current and future climate scenarios: implications for the coffee industry," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 4143-4166, February.
    5. Samuel Asumadu Sarkodie & Maruf Yakubu Ahmed & Phebe Asantewaa Owusu, 2022. "Global adaptation readiness and income mitigate sectoral climate change vulnerabilities," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-17, December.
    6. Jeetendra Prakash Aryal & Tek B. Sapkota & Ritika Khurana & Arun Khatri-Chhetri & Dil Bahadur Rahut & M. L. Jat, 2020. "Climate change and agriculture in South Asia: adaptation options in smallholder production systems," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(6), pages 5045-5075, August.
    7. Francesco Bandarin & Enrico Ciciotti & Marco Cremaschi & Giovanna Madera & Paolo Perulli & Diana Shendrikova, 2020. "Which Future for Cities after COVID-19 An international Survey," Reports, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, October.
    8. Donato Masciandaro & Riccardo Russo, 2022. "Central Banks and Climate Policy: Unpleasant Trade–Offs? A Principal–Agent Approach," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 22181, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    9. Paff, K. & Timlin, D. & Fleisher, D.H., 2023. "A comparison of wheat leaf-appearance rate submodules for DSSAT CROPSIM-CERES (CSCER)," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 482(C).
    10. França, Ana Carolina Ferreira & Coelho, Rubens Duarte & da Silva Gundim, Alice & de Oliveira Costa, Jéfferson & Quiloango-Chimarro, Carlos Alberto, 2024. "Effects of different irrigation scheduling methods on physiology, yield, and irrigation water productivity of soybean varieties," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
    11. Jezeer, Rosalien E. & Santos, Maria J. & Verweij, Pita A. & Boot, René G.A. & Clough, Yann, 2019. "Benefits for multiple ecosystem services in Peruvian coffee agroforestry systems without reducing yield," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
    12. Kamini Yadav & Hatim M. E. Geli, 2021. "Prediction of Crop Yield for New Mexico Based on Climate and Remote Sensing Data for the 1920–2019 Period," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-27, December.
    13. World Bank Group, 2014. "Turn Down the Heat : Confronting the New Climate Normal [Bajemos la temperatura : cómo hacer frente a la nueva realidad climática (Vol. 4)]," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 20595, April.
    14. Jerome Dumortier & Miguel Carriquiry & Amani Elobeid, 2021. "Impact of climate change on global agricultural markets under different shared socioeconomic pathways," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(6), pages 963-984, November.
    15. Ribašauskienė, Erika & Volkov, Artiom & Morkūnas, Mangirdas & Žičkienė, Agnė & Dabkiene, Vida & Štreimikienė, Dalia & Baležentis, Tomas, 2024. "Strategies for increasing agricultural viability, resilience and sustainability amid disruptive events: An expert-based analysis of relevance," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    16. Raquel Ghini & André Torre-Neto & Anamaria Dentzien & Oliveiro Guerreiro-Filho & Regiane Iost & Flávia Patrício & Jeanne Prado & Roberto Thomaziello & Wagner Bettiol & Fábio DaMatta, 2015. "Coffee growth, pest and yield responses to free-air CO 2 enrichment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 132(2), pages 307-320, September.
    17. Gorgan, Maxim & Bavorova, Miroslava & Ullah, Ayat & Prishchepov, Alexander V., 2024. "The role of land market in shaping farmland abandonment in post-Soviet Armenia," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    18. Chandio, Abbas Ali & Ozdemir, Dicle & Jiang, Yuansheng, 2023. "Modelling the impact of climate change and advanced agricultural technologies on grain output: Recent evidence from China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 485(C).
    19. Ruchie Pathak & Nicholas R. Magliocca, 2022. "Assessing the Representativeness of Irrigation Adoption Studies: A Meta-Study of Global Research," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-31, December.
    20. Kumar Bahadur Darjee & Prem Raj Neupane & Michael Köhl, 2023. "Proactive Adaptation Responses by Vulnerable Communities to Climate Change Impacts," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-30, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:26:y:2024:i:4:d:10.1007_s10668-023-03051-0. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.