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Bio-energy and CO2 emission reductions: an integrated land-use and energy sector perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Nico Bauer

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association)

  • David Klein

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association)

  • Florian Humpenöder

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association)

  • Elmar Kriegler

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association)

  • Gunnar Luderer

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association
    Technische Universität Berlin)

  • Alexander Popp

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association)

  • Jessica Strefler

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association)

Abstract

Biomass feedstocks can be used to substitute fossil fuels and effectively remove carbon from the atmosphere to offset residual CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and other sectors. Both features make biomass valuable for climate change mitigation; therefore, CO2 emission mitigation leads to complex and dynamic interactions between the energy and the land-use sector via emission pricing policies and bioenergy markets. Projected bioenergy deployment depends on climate target stringency as well as assumptions about context variables such as technology development, energy and land markets as well as policies. This study investigates the intra- and intersectorial effects on physical quantities and prices by coupling models of the energy (REMIND) and land-use sector (MAgPIE) using an iterative soft-link approach. The model framework is used to investigate variations of a broad set of context variables, including the harmonized variations on bioenergy technologies of the 33rd model comparison study of the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF-33) on climate change mitigation and large scale bioenergy deployment. Results indicate that CO2 emission mitigation triggers strong decline of fossil fuel use and rapid growth of bioenergy deployment around midcentury (~ 150 EJ/year) reaching saturation towards end-of-century. Varying context variables leads to diverse changes on mid-century bioenergy markets and carbon pricing. For example, reducing the ability to exploit the carbon value of bioenergy increases bioenergy use to substitute fossil fuels, whereas limitations on bioenergy supply shift bioenergy use to conversion alternatives featuring higher carbon capture rates. Radical variations, like fully excluding all technologies that combine bioenergy use with carbon removal, lead to substantial intersectorial effects by increasing bioenergy demand and increased economic pressure on both sectors. More gradual variations like selective exclusion of advanced bioliquid technologies in the energy sector or changes in diets mostly lead to substantial intrasectorial reallocation effects. The results deepen our understanding of the land-energy nexus, and we discuss the importance of carefully choosing variations in sensitivity analyses to provide a balanced assessment.

Suggested Citation

  • Nico Bauer & David Klein & Florian Humpenöder & Elmar Kriegler & Gunnar Luderer & Alexander Popp & Jessica Strefler, 2020. "Bio-energy and CO2 emission reductions: an integrated land-use and energy sector perspective," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(3), pages 1675-1693, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:163:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-020-02895-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02895-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Elmar Kriegler & John Weyant & Geoffrey Blanford & Volker Krey & Leon Clarke & Jae Edmonds & Allen Fawcett & Gunnar Luderer & Keywan Riahi & Richard Richels & Steven Rose & Massimo Tavoni & Detlef Vuu, 2014. "The role of technology for achieving climate policy objectives: overview of the EMF 27 study on global technology and climate policy strategies," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(3), pages 353-367, April.
    2. Nico Bauer & Lavinia Baumstark & Marian Leimbach, 2012. "The REMIND-R model: the role of renewables in the low-carbon transformation—first-best vs. second-best worlds," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 114(1), pages 145-168, September.
    3. Vivian Scott & Oliver Geden, 2018. "The challenge of carbon dioxide removal for EU policy-making," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 3(5), pages 350-352, May.
    4. Nico Bauer & Ottmar Edenhofer & Socrates Kypreos, 2008. "Linking energy system and macroeconomic growth models," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 95-117, February.
    5. Messner, Sabine & Schrattenholzer, Leo, 2000. "MESSAGE–MACRO: linking an energy supply model with a macroeconomic module and solving it iteratively," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 267-282.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sacchi, R. & Terlouw, T. & Siala, K. & Dirnaichner, A. & Bauer, C. & Cox, B. & Mutel, C. & Daioglou, V. & Luderer, G., 2022. "PRospective EnvironMental Impact asSEment (premise): A streamlined approach to producing databases for prospective life cycle assessment using integrated assessment models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    2. Bjoern Soergel & Elmar Kriegler & Isabelle Weindl & Sebastian Rauner & Alois Dirnaichner & Constantin Ruhe & Matthias Hofmann & Nico Bauer & Christoph Bertram & Benjamin Leon Bodirsky & Marian Leimbac, 2021. "A sustainable development pathway for climate action within the UN 2030 Agenda," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(8), pages 656-664, August.
    3. Wu, Yazhen & Deppermann, Andre & Havlík, Petr & Frank, Stefan & Ren, Ming & Zhao, Hao & Ma, Lin & Fang, Chen & Chen, Qi & Dai, Hancheng, 2023. "Global land-use and sustainability implications of enhanced bioenergy import of China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 336(C).
    4. Florian Leblanc & Ruben Bibas & Silvana Mima & Matteo Muratori & Shogo Sakamoto & Fuminori Sano & Nico Bauer & Vassilis Daioglou & Shinichiro Fujimori & Matthew J Gidden & Estsushi Kato & Steven K Ros, 2022. "The contribution of bioenergy to the decarbonization of transport: a multi-model assessment," Post-Print hal-03558507, HAL.
    5. Florian Leblanc & Ruben Bibas & Silvana Mima & Matteo Muratori & Shogo Sakamoto & Fuminori Sano & Nico Bauer & Vassilis Daioglou & Shinichiro Fujimori & Matthew J. Gidden & Estsushi Kato & Steven K. R, 2022. "The contribution of bioenergy to the decarbonization of transport: a multi-model assessment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 1-21, February.
    6. Steven K Rose & Nico Bauer & Alexander Popp & John Weyant & Shinichiro Fujimori & Petr Havlik & Marshall Wise & Detlef P Vuuren, 2020. "An overview of the Energy Modeling Forum 33rd study: assessing large-scale global bioenergy deployment for managing climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(3), pages 1539-1551, December.

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