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Direct and indirect impacts of climate and socio-economic change in Europe: a sensitivity analysis for key land- and water-based sectors

Author

Listed:
  • A. Kebede
  • R. Dunford
  • M. Mokrech
  • E. Audsley
  • P. Harrison
  • I. Holman
  • R. Nicholls
  • S. Rickebusch
  • M. Rounsevell
  • S. Sabaté
  • F. Sallaba
  • A. Sanchez
  • C. Savin
  • M. Trnka
  • F. Wimmer

Abstract

Integrated cross-sectoral impact assessments facilitate a comprehensive understanding of interdependencies and potential synergies, conflicts, and trade-offs between sectors under changing conditions. This paper presents a sensitivity analysis of a European integrated assessment model, the CLIMSAVE integrated assessment platform (IAP). The IAP incorporates important cross-sectoral linkages between six key European land- and water-based sectors: agriculture, biodiversity, flooding, forests, urban, and water. Using the IAP, we investigate the direct and indirect implications of a wide range of climatic and socio-economic drivers to identify: (1) those sectors and regions most sensitive to future changes, (2) the mechanisms and directions of sensitivity (direct/indirect and positive/negative), (3) the form and magnitudes of sensitivity (linear/non-linear and strong/weak/insignificant), and (4) the relative importance of the key drivers across sectors and regions. The results are complex. Most sectors are either directly or indirectly sensitive to a large number of drivers (more than 18 out of 24 drivers considered). Over twelve of these drivers have indirect impacts on biodiversity, forests, land use diversity, and water, while only four drivers have indirect effects on flooding. In contrast, for the urban sector all the drivers are direct. Moreover, most of the driver–indicator relationships are non-linear, and hence there is the potential for ‘surprises’. This highlights the importance of considering cross-sectoral interactions in future impact assessments. Such systematic analysis provides improved information for decision-makers to formulate appropriate adaptation policies to maximise benefits and minimise unintended consequences. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • A. Kebede & R. Dunford & M. Mokrech & E. Audsley & P. Harrison & I. Holman & R. Nicholls & S. Rickebusch & M. Rounsevell & S. Sabaté & F. Sallaba & A. Sanchez & C. Savin & M. Trnka & F. Wimmer, 2015. "Direct and indirect impacts of climate and socio-economic change in Europe: a sensitivity analysis for key land- and water-based sectors," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 128(3), pages 261-277, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:128:y:2015:i:3:p:261-277
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1313-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alastair Brown, 2014. "Adaptation and mitigation," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(10), pages 860-860, October.
    2. Robert J. Nicholls & Abiy S. Kebede, 2012. "Indirect impacts of coastal climate change and sea-level rise: the UK example," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(sup01), pages 28-52, September.
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    2. Kamila Veselá & Lucie Severová & Roman Svoboda, 2022. "The Impact of Temperature and Precipitation Change on the Production of Grapes in the Czech Republic," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-15, March.

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