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The influence of national temperature fluctuations on opinions about climate change in the U.S. since 1990

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  • Simon Donner
  • Jeremy McDaniels

Abstract

Public opinion in the United States about human-caused climate change has varied over the past 20 years, despite an increasing consensus about the issue in the expert community. Attitudes about climate change have been attributed to a number of factors including personal values, political ideology, the media environment and personal experience. Recent studies have found evidence that the temperature can influence one’s opinion about climate change and willingness to change behaviour and/or support climate policy. Although there is some evidence that individual cool or warm years have influenced large-scale opinion about climate change, the extent to which temperature can explain the past variability in public opinion and public discourse about climate change at the national level is not known. Here we isolate the relationship between opinion about climate change and temperature at the national scale, using data from opinion polls, a discourse analysis of opinion articles from five major daily newspapers, and a national air temperature database. The fraction of respondents to national polls who express “belief in” or “worry about” climate change is found to be significantly correlated to U.S. mean temperature anomalies over the previous 3–12 months. In addition, the fraction of editorial and opinion articles which “agree” with the expert consensus on climate change is also found to be significantly correlated to U.S. mean temperature anomalies at seasonal and annual scales. These results suggest that a fraction of the past variance in American views about climate change could potentially be explained by climate variability. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

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  • Simon Donner & Jeremy McDaniels, 2013. "The influence of national temperature fluctuations on opinions about climate change in the U.S. since 1990," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(3), pages 537-550, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:118:y:2013:i:3:p:537-550
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-012-0690-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert Brulle & Jason Carmichael & J. Jenkins, 2012. "Shifting public opinion on climate change: an empirical assessment of factors influencing concern over climate change in the U.S., 2002–2010," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 114(2), pages 169-188, September.
    2. Dan M. Kahan & Hank Jenkins-Smith & Donald Braman, 2011. "Cultural cognition of scientific consensus," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 147-174, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Aaron C. Sparks & Heather Hodges & Sarah Oliver & Eric R. A. N. Smith, 2020. "Confidence in Local, National, and International Scientists on Climate Change," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-13, December.
    2. Nowakowski, Adam & Oswald. Andrew J, 2020. "Do Europeans Care about Climate Change? An Illustration of the Importance of Data on Human Feelings," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1303, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    3. Charles F. Mason & Neil A. Wilmot, 2023. "On Climate Fat Tails and Politics," CESifo Working Paper Series 10815, CESifo.
    4. Jeremiah Bohr, 2017. "Is it hot in here or is it just me? Temperature anomalies and political polarization over global warming in the American public," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 142(1), pages 271-285, May.
    5. Trisha R. Shrum, 2021. "The salience of future impacts and the willingness to pay for climate change mitigation: an experiment in intergenerational framing," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 165(1), pages 1-20, March.
    6. Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Gabrielle Wong-Parodi & M. Granger Morgan, 2014. "Public perceptions of local flood risk and the role of climate change," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 591-599, December.
    7. Andrea Taylor & Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Suraje Dessai, 2014. "Climate Change Beliefs and Perceptions of Weather‐Related Changes in the United Kingdom," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(11), pages 1995-2004, November.
    8. Nowakowski, Adam & Oswald, Andrew J, 2020. "Do Europeans Care about Climate Change? An Illustration of the Importance of Data on Human Feelings," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 510, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    9. Jessie W. Y. Ko & Shengquan Ni & Alexander Taylor & Xiusi Chen & Yicong Huang & Avinash Kumar & Sadeem Alsudais & Zuozhi Wang & Xiaozhen Liu & Wei Wang & Chen Li & Suellen Hopfer, 2024. "How the experience of California wildfires shape Twitter climate change framings," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(1), pages 1-21, January.
    10. Kristin B. Dobbin & Amanda L. Fencl & Gregory Pierce & Melissa Beresford & Silvia Gonzalez & Wendy Jepson, 2023. "Understanding perceived climate risks to household water supply and their implications for adaptation: evidence from California," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(4), pages 1-20, April.
    11. Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Andrew Dugan, 2022. "On the differential correlates of climate change concerns and severe weather concerns: evidence from the World Risk Poll," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 171(3), pages 1-24, April.

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