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Die zukünftige Entwicklung der Grundschulversorgung im Kontext ausgewählter Wanderungsszenarien
[The future development of primary school demand in the context of selected migration scenarios]

Author

Listed:
  • Sebastian Dräger

    (Universität Trier)

  • Johannes Kopp

    (Universität Trier)

  • Ralf Münnich

    (Universität Trier)

  • Simon Schmaus

    (Universität Trier)

Abstract

Zusammenfassung Um die Potentiale der Mikrosimulation als ein Instrument zur Analyse zukünftiger Versorgungslagen in verschiedenen (sozialpolitischen) Bereichen aufzuzeigen, wurde am Beispiel der Stadt Trier eine Mikrosimulationsstudie durchgeführt, bei der der Einfluss unterschiedlicher Wanderungsszenarien auf die Situation der Grundschülerinnen und Grundschüler im Stadtgebiet untersucht wurde. Die Datenbasis stellt eine synthetische Grundgesamtheit der Bevölkerung auf Basis der Zensusergebnisse 2011 dar, welche mit Hilfe von Zensusgitterzellen geografisch im Stadtgebiet verortet und modellbasiert in die Zukunft fortgeschrieben wurde. Außerdem liegen für Trier für die Jahre 2011 bis 2018 präzise Zahlen zu Schülerinnen und Schülern der Elementarstufe vor, an denen nicht nur die Simulationsgesamtheit konfiguriert werden kann, sondern die auch als zentrale Benchmarks für die Validität der Fortschreibungsmodule und –Parameter dienen können.

Suggested Citation

  • Sebastian Dräger & Johannes Kopp & Ralf Münnich & Simon Schmaus, 2022. "Die zukünftige Entwicklung der Grundschulversorgung im Kontext ausgewählter Wanderungsszenarien [The future development of primary school demand in the context of selected migration scenarios]," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 16(1), pages 51-77, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:astaws:v:16:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1007_s11943-022-00301-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s11943-022-00301-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sabine Zinn, 2012. "A Mate-Matching Algorithm for Continuous-Time Microsimulation Models," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 5(1), pages 31-51.
    2. Robert Tanton, 2018. "Spatial Microsimulation: Developments and Potential Future Directions," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 11(1), pages 143-161.
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    4. Ulrich Rendtel & Andreas Neudecker & Lukas Fuchs, 2021. "Ein neues Web-basiertes Verfahren zur Darstellung der Corona-Inzidenzen in Raum und Zeit [A new web-based routine for the display of Corona-incidences in space and time]," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 15(2), pages 93-106, June.
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    7. Robert Tanton, 2014. "A Review of Spatial Microsimulation Methods," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 7(1), pages 4-25.
    8. Ulrich Rendtel & Milo Ruhanen, 2018. "Die Konstruktion von Dienstleistungskarten mit Open Data am Beispiel des lokalen Bedarfs an Kinderbetreuung in Berlin [The construction of service maps with open data: the case of local need for ch," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 12(3), pages 271-284, December.
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