IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/annopr/v330y2023i1d10.1007_s10479-021-04114-z.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Credit risk classification: an integrated predictive accuracy algorithm using artificial and deep neural networks

Author

Listed:
  • Mohammad Mahbobi

    (Thompson Rivers University)

  • Salman Kimiagari

    (Thompson Rivers University)

  • Marriappan Vasudevan

    (Thompson Rivers University)

Abstract

This study utilizes classification models to provide a robust algorithm for imbalanced data where the minority class is of the interest, that is, in the context of default payments. In developing an integrated predictive accuracy algorithm, this study proposes machine learning classifiers and applies DNN, SVM, KNN, and ANN. The proposed algorithm utilizes a 30,000 imbalanced dataset to improve the accuracy of the prediction of default payments by implementing oversampling and undersampling strategies, such as synthetic minority oversampling technique (SMOTE), SVM SMOTE, random undersampling, and ALL-KNN. The results indicate that the SVM under the ALL-KNN sampling technique is able to achieve an accuracy of 98.6%, with the lowest cross entropy loss measurement of 0.028. Through the accurate implementation of the neural networks and neurons used in the proposed algorithm, this paper presents better insights into the functioning of the neural networks when used in conjunction with the resampling techniques. Using the methodology and algorithm presented in this study, credit risk assessments can be more accurately predicted in practical applications where most of the clients are categorized as non-default payments.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohammad Mahbobi & Salman Kimiagari & Marriappan Vasudevan, 2023. "Credit risk classification: an integrated predictive accuracy algorithm using artificial and deep neural networks," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 330(1), pages 609-637, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:330:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1007_s10479-021-04114-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s10479-021-04114-z
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10479-021-04114-z
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10479-021-04114-z?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:agr:journl:v:4(621):y:2019:i:4(621):p:75-84 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Sihem Khemakhem & Younes Boujelbene, 2015. "Credit Risk Prediction: A Comparative Study between Discriminant Analysis and the Neural Network Approach," Journal of Accounting and Management Information Systems, Faculty of Accounting and Management Information Systems, The Bucharest University of Economic Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 60-78, March.
    3. Nikolaos Sariannidis & Stelios Papadakis & Alexandros Garefalakis & Christos Lemonakis & Tsioptsia Kyriaki-Argyro, 2020. "Default avoidance on credit card portfolios using accounting, demographical and exploratory factors: decision making based on machine learning (ML) techniques," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 294(1), pages 715-739, November.
    4. Aida Krichene Abdelmoula, 2015. "Bank Credit Risk Analysis with K-Nearest-Neighbor Classifier: Case of Tunisian Banks," Journal of Accounting and Management Information Systems, Faculty of Accounting and Management Information Systems, The Bucharest University of Economic Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 79-106, March.
    5. Shiyi Chen & W. K. Hardle & R. A. Moro, 2011. "Modeling default risk with support vector machines," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 135-154.
    6. Lessmann, Stefan & Baesens, Bart & Seow, Hsin-Vonn & Thomas, Lyn C., 2015. "Benchmarking state-of-the-art classification algorithms for credit scoring: An update of research," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 247(1), pages 124-136.
    7. Jan-Henning Trustorff & Paul Konrad & Jens Leker, 2011. "Credit risk prediction using support vector machines," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 36(4), pages 565-581, May.
    8. Shigeyuki Hamori & Minami Kawai & Takahiro Kume & Yuji Murakami & Chikara Watanabe, 2018. "Ensemble Learning or Deep Learning? Application to Default Risk Analysis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-14, March.
    9. Selçuk BAYRACI & Orkun SUSUZ, 2019. "A Deep Neural Network (DNN) based classification model in application to loan default prediction," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(4(621), W), pages 75-84, Winter.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Weng, Futian & Zhu, Miao & Buckle, Mike & Hajek, Petr & Abedin, Mohammad Zoynul, 2025. "Class imbalance Bayesian model averaging for consumer loan default prediction: The role of soft credit information," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shigeyuki Hamori & Takahiro Kume, 2018. "Artificial Intelligence And Economic Growth," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 22(1), pages 256-278, December.
    2. Parisa Golbayani & Ionuc{t} Florescu & Rupak Chatterjee, 2020. "A comparative study of forecasting Corporate Credit Ratings using Neural Networks, Support Vector Machines, and Decision Trees," Papers 2007.06617, arXiv.org.
    3. Zhou, Ying & Shen, Long & Ballester, Laura, 2023. "A two-stage credit scoring model based on random forest: Evidence from Chinese small firms," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    4. repec:agr:journl:v:4(621):y:2019:i:4(621):p:75-84 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Golbayani, Parisa & Florescu, Ionuţ & Chatterjee, Rupak, 2020. "A comparative study of forecasting corporate credit ratings using neural networks, support vector machines, and decision trees," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    6. Davidescu Adriana AnaMaria & Agafiței Marina-Diana & Strat Vasile Alecsandru & Dima Alina Mihaela, 2024. "Mapping the Landscape: A Bibliometric Analysis of Rating Agencies in the Era of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning," Proceedings of the International Conference on Business Excellence, Sciendo, vol. 18(1), pages 67-85.
    7. Gunnarsson, Björn Rafn & vanden Broucke, Seppe & Baesens, Bart & Óskarsdóttir, María & Lemahieu, Wilfried, 2021. "Deep learning for credit scoring: Do or don’t?," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 295(1), pages 292-305.
    8. Martin Leo & Suneel Sharma & K. Maddulety, 2019. "Machine Learning in Banking Risk Management: A Literature Review," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-22, March.
    9. Ahmed, Shamima & Alshater, Muneer M. & Ammari, Anis El & Hammami, Helmi, 2022. "Artificial intelligence and machine learning in finance: A bibliometric review," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    10. Dimitrios Nikolaidis & Michalis Doumpos, 2022. "Credit Scoring with Drift Adaptation Using Local Regions of Competence," SN Operations Research Forum, Springer, vol. 3(4), pages 1-28, December.
    11. Selçuk BAYRACI & Orkun SUSUZ, 2019. "A Deep Neural Network (DNN) based classification model in application to loan default prediction," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(4(621), W), pages 75-84, Winter.
    12. Dangxing Chen & Weicheng Ye & Jiahui Ye, 2022. "Interpretable Selective Learning in Credit Risk," Papers 2209.10127, arXiv.org.
    13. Dan Wang & Zhi Chen & Ionut Florescu, 2021. "A Sparsity Algorithm with Applications to Corporate Credit Rating," Papers 2107.10306, arXiv.org.
    14. Li, Yibei & Wang, Ximei & Djehiche, Boualem & Hu, Xiaoming, 2020. "Credit scoring by incorporating dynamic networked information," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 286(3), pages 1103-1112.
    15. Davide Nicola Continanza & Andrea del Monaco & Marco di Lucido & Daniele Figoli & Pasquale Maddaloni & Filippo Quarta & Giuseppe Turturiello, 2023. "Stacking machine learning models for anomaly detection: comparing AnaCredit to other banking data sets," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Data science in central banking: applications and tools, volume 59, Bank for International Settlements.
    16. Lismont, Jasmien & Vanthienen, Jan & Baesens, Bart & Lemahieu, Wilfried, 2017. "Defining analytics maturity indicators: A survey approach," International Journal of Information Management, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 114-124.
    17. Roy Cerqueti & Francesca Pampurini & Annagiulia Pezzola & Anna Grazia Quaranta, 2022. "Dangerous liasons and hot customers for banks," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 65-89, July.
    18. Natalia Nehrebecka, 2021. "Internal Credit Risk Models and Digital Transformation: What to Prepare for? An Application to Poland," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(Special 2), pages 719-736.
    19. Neha Chhabra Roy, 2024. "Sustainable lending strategies: a framework for enhancing climate resilience in industrial loan portfolios," Asia Europe Journal, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 423-462, December.
    20. Zhou, Jing & Li, Wei & Wang, Jiaxin & Ding, Shuai & Xia, Chengyi, 2019. "Default prediction in P2P lending from high-dimensional data based on machine learning," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 534(C).
    21. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2013-037 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Topuz, Kazim & Urban, Timothy L. & Yildirim, Mehmet B., 2024. "A Markovian score model for evaluating provider performance for continuity of care—An explainable analytics approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 317(2), pages 341-351.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:330:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1007_s10479-021-04114-z. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.