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How adding new information modifies the estimation of the mean and the variance in PERT: a maximum entropy distribution approach

Author

Listed:
  • A. Hernández-Bastida

    (University of Granada)

  • M. P. Fernández-Sánchez

    (University of Granada)

Abstract

This paper presents an alternative method to estimate the mean and the variance when using the program evaluation and review technique (PERT). Different levels of information, provided by an expert, are considered in the PERT scenario to obtain the values of the mean and the variance by means of a maximum entropy distribution approach. In our opinion, the information to be taken into account should be only that supplied by the expert. We also perform a numerical analysis to examine how the estimates vary if new information is added. From this, we conclude that the inclusion of new information (even for analytic purposes) produces significant changes in the estimates proposed.

Suggested Citation

  • A. Hernández-Bastida & M. P. Fernández-Sánchez, 2019. "How adding new information modifies the estimation of the mean and the variance in PERT: a maximum entropy distribution approach," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 274(1), pages 291-308, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:274:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1007_s10479-018-2857-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s10479-018-2857-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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