Project management under uncertainty beyond beta: The generalized bicubic distribution
The beta distribution has traditionally been employed in the PERT methodology and generally used for modeling bounded continuous random variables based on expert’s judgment. The impossibility of estimating four parameters from the three values provided by the expert when the beta distribution is assumed to be the underlying distribution has been widely debated. This paper presents the generalized bicubic distribution as a good alternative to the beta distribution since, when the variance depends on the mode, the generalized bicubic distribution approximates the kurtosis of the Gaussian distribution better than the beta distribution. In addition, this distribution presents good properties in the PERT methodology in relation to moderation and conservatism criteria. Two empirical applications are presented to demonstrate the adequateness of this new distribution.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 3 (2016)
Issue (Month): C ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/operations-research-perspectives|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hahn, Eugene David, 2008. "Mixture densities for project management activity times: A robust approach to PERT," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 188(2), pages 450-459, July.
- Abdelkader, Yousry H., 2004. "Evaluating project completion times when activity times are Weibull distributed," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 157(3), pages 704-715, September.
- Kamburowski, J., 1997. "New validations of PERT times," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 323-328, June.
- M. W. Sasieni, 1986. "Note---A Note on Pert Times," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 32(12), pages 1652-1653, December.
- William H. Parks & Kenneth D. Ramsing, 1969. "The Use of the Compound Poisson in Pert," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(8), pages 397-402, April.
- T. K. Littlefield, Jr. & P. H. Randolph, 1987. "Reply---An Answer to Sasieni's Question on PERT Times," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(10), pages 1357-1359, October.
- Joseph J. Moder & E. G. Rodgers, 1968. "Judgment Estimates of the Moments of Pert Type Distributions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(2), pages 76-83, October.
- C. García & J. García Pérez & J. Dorp, 2011. "Modeling heavy-tailed, skewed and peaked uncertainty phenomena with bounded support," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 20(4), pages 463-486, November.
- Charles Gallagher, 1987. "Reply---A Note on PERT Assumptions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(10), pages 1360-1360, October.
- Sculli, D & Wong, KL, 1985. "The maximum and sum of two beta variables and the analysis of PERT networks," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 233-240.
- C. Perry & I. D. Greig, 1975. "Estimating the Mean and Variance of Subjective Distributions in PERT and Decision Analysis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 21(12), pages 1477-1480, August.
- HerrerI´as-Velasco, José Manuel & HerrerI´as-Pleguezuelo, Rafael & van Dorp, Johan René, 2011. "Revisiting the PERT mean and variance," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 210(2), pages 448-451, April.
- T. C. T. Kotiah & N. D. Wallace, 1973. "Another Look at the PERT Assumptions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 20(1), pages 44-49, September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:oprepe:v:3:y:2016:i:c:p:67-76. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.