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Another Look at the PERT Assumptions

Author

Listed:
  • T. C. T. Kotiah

    (Southern Illinois University, Edwardsville)

  • N. D. Wallace

    (Southern Illinois University, Edwardsville)

Abstract

A maximum entropy approach leads to a truncated normal distribution for the activity time in PERT analysis. Three different methods of fit are discussed, and a comparison with the standard assumption of a Beta distribution is made. The results suggest new ways of performing the PERT analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • T. C. T. Kotiah & N. D. Wallace, 1973. "Another Look at the PERT Assumptions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 20(1), pages 44-49, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:20:y:1973:i:1:p:44-49
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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.20.1.44
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    Cited by:

    1. Tien-Fu Liang & Tien-Shou Huang & Ming-Feng Yang, 2012. "Application of fuzzy mathematical programming to imprecise project management decisions," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 46(5), pages 1451-1470, August.
    2. Soofi, E.S. & Nystrom, P.C. & Yasai-Ardekani, M., 2009. "Executives' perceived environmental uncertainty shortly after 9/11," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(9), pages 3502-3515, July.
    3. Hahn, Eugene David, 2008. "Mixture densities for project management activity times: A robust approach to PERT," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 188(2), pages 450-459, July.
    4. Colin, Jeroen & Vanhoucke, Mario, 2014. "Setting tolerance limits for statistical project control using earned value management," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 107-122.
    5. Pérez, José García & Martín, María del Mar López & García, Catalina García & Sánchez Granero, Miguel Ángel, 2016. "Project management under uncertainty beyond beta: The generalized bicubic distribution," Operations Research Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 3(C), pages 67-76.
    6. Trietsch, Dan & Mazmanyan, Lilit & Gevorgyan, Lilit & Baker, Kenneth R., 2012. "Modeling activity times by the Parkinson distribution with a lognormal core: Theory and validation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 216(2), pages 386-396.
    7. HerrerI´as-Velasco, José Manuel & HerrerI´as-Pleguezuelo, Rafael & van Dorp, Johan René, 2011. "Revisiting the PERT mean and variance," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 210(2), pages 448-451, April.

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